And just like that… SHB is right back in the mix. After hitting a profit on all 4 of our 2nd Round bets today (for a total of +1.74 units) we’re now currently sitting at +0.94 units for our round bets on the week and the majority of our futures bets are still very much in play (11/14, ~79%). Our favorite outright winner pick for the tournament, Scottie Scheffler, is currently tied for the lead after 36 holes and he looks absolutely primed to capture his second major title this weekend.
The weather forecast looks gnarly for the entire field tomorrow so it’s time to lock in on our horses to make some noise on moving day. Enjoy the solid matchups tomorrow (the Brooksie/Bryson pairing should be electric to watch) and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
3rd Round 2 Ball Matchups
Collin Morikawa (-130) (1 unit) vs Adam Scott
Morikawa pieced together a solid back nine today (despite bogeying 18) and let’s not forget… he’s already won a PGA Championship before. I think Morikawa picks up where he left off tomorrow and could make a serious move up the leaderboard if he starts making some putts. He holds a 2 stroke advantage over Adam Scott in 3rd Round Scoring Average (which is QUITE significant) and he’s really just an entirely different caliber player than Scott at this point in their respective careers. The wheels really started to fall off for Scott on Friday and I don’t suspect a huge change in his play tomorrow given the likely poor weather conditions. Backing the young buck over the old bull in this one (yes, that was a Step Brothers reference).
Brooks Koepka (-140) (1 unit) vs Bryson DeChambeau (NO TIE)
Brooksie definitely owns real estate in DeChambeau’s head and the powers that be did Bryson no favors by pairing these two up tomorrow. DeChambeau (although calling my bluff thus far) feels like a ticking time bomb for a meltdown and Koepka looks like the major champion of old. I love this matchup so much that I’m taking the three way bet vs our typical “Tie No Bet” format. It’s also worth mentioning that Koepka actually tends to play great compared to the rest of the field when playing through bad weather conditions. I would also be remiss not to mention how subpar DeChambeau usually is around the greens so he definitely has a handful of blow up holes in store for us soon (regression to the mean). He’s been surprisingly accurate thus far but I suspect that to change with Brooks standing behind him for every single shot tomorrow. Back the more confident player here… Remember when these two squared off in “The Match”?
Jon Rahm (-155) (1 unit) vs Tyrrell Hatton
I went back and forth on this one as to what Rahm action I wanted to take for tomorrow. Given the likely bad weather conditions, I’m opting for a matchup bet vs an individual score bet like today. I also went back and forth between Hatton or Cameron Smith as Rahm’s opponent but I’m rolling with Hatton given Smith’s superior short game and the lack of data on the Aussie since joining the LIV Tour. Hatton has struggled in 3rd rounds at majors throughout his career and Rahm has the “making the cut” monkey off of his back now after today’s 68 (+3 for the tournament). This feels like a perfect spot for Rahm to go low and sneak into contention for Sunday. Trust the #1 player in the world tomorrow who has honestly been striking the ball fantastic tee to green all week… just needs more short putts to drop. No better day to have a day than on moving day, right? Man… used a lot of “days” there.
Scottie Scheffler (-170) (1 unit) vs Corey Conners
The conditions today are absolutely horrid and I have infinitely more faith in the overall consistency of Scheffler’s game than Corey Conners. Conners jumped out to an early lead at the 2021 PGA Championship as well and the wheels eventually fell off as he entered the weekend. An already difficult course is playing even harder today as it continues to rain buckets on Oak Hill… Backing arguably the best player in the world to navigate those storms better than a player who’s only made 50% of his cuts at PGA Championships historically. This play also works as a nice hedge towards our 3rd Round Leader prop with Hovland and Koepka. As long as Scheffler can best Conners today, which I strongly believe he will, then this bet should cover the possibility of Hovland or Koepka not finishing atop the leaderboard after Saturday’s round (two possibilities with much more enticing odds then Scheffler at the moment given his current prowess).
Rory McIlroy (-135) (1 unit) vs Shane Lowry (NO TIE)
Rory is one of the best rain players to ever tee it up, he’s held things together relatively nicely thus far despite some bad breaks and Oak Hill is basically a home course for him (it’s where he got married and his wife is from Rochester). Lowry put together a fantastic 2nd Round yesterday but he took some bad bogies late and his play this season overall has been inconsistent at best. I like Rory to win this matchup on Saturday given his pseudo home field advantage, his absurd ability/surprising comfort playing in rainy conditions and his general greatness off the tee throughout his career.
3rd Round Parlay
Viktor Hovland vs Justin Suh/Justin Thomas vs Zach Johnson
Pick: Hovland/Thomas Parlay (+100) (1 unit)
This parlay is pretty simple. Hovland is a true threat to win his first major this week (not thrilled about it) and we should see an entirely different Justin Thomas tomorrow after making the cut by the skin of his teeth today on 18. Justin Suh has been a great story this week but realistically he just doesn’t have the experience to last in a “war of attrition” type major like Oak Hill and there’s also the fact that this is only the second major of his entire career. Zach Johnson is a great player for the game but it’s no secret that he’s entered the back half of his career and he’s currently at a 1.38 stroke disadvantage compared to Justin Thomas regarding 3rd Round Scoring Average. Don’t forget, Justin Thomas is the defending PGA Champion this week and he staged a heroic comeback in order to win that major last year (the second PGA Championship victory of his career). Hovland holds a 1.14 stroke advantage over Suh in regards to 3rd Round Scoring Average and he tends to hold steady until the final round of majors. Don’t overthink this one.
3rd Round Props
Love the odds we’re getting today for either Hovland or Koepka to finish atop the leaderboard on Saturday. Hovland looks fantastic this week and he’s cleaned up his play around the greens which makes him truly dangerous compared to the rest of the field. Koepka excels in these kind of conditions, he’s only 3 shots off the lead and he’s absolutely in “majors hunt mode” this week (and has been since Augusta last month). Given the brutal conditions and Koepka’s gritty style of play (plus the fact that he’s playing with his arch nemesis DeChambeau today) I think think we could see something special. At +1600 odds… Can’t resist the value.
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