What a chaotic Saturday at Oak Hill… I thought the rain was truly out to get SHB for the first half of the day (Rahm didn’t show up, Morikawa bogied 4 out of his last 6 holes, JT blew a 3 shot lead over Zach Johnson on the back nine, Scottie played the worst nine holes of his professional career, etc). Thankfully we were still able to finish strong (shout out Brooksie/Rory McIlroy) and we’re still up +0.624 units through Saturday. Our initial futures bets have us decently set up for success but we’re definitely going to implement some hedging heading into Sunday just to be safe (projected to finish ~+0.075 units for the tournament if all current positions hold steady).
Time to put a profitable stamp on this one… we all deserve it after the roller coaster ride that is the 2023 PGA Championship. Always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Soooo Koepka went on an absolute rampage today and he has all the looks of a 5 time major champion heading into Sunday. Have to throw him on the betslip given his experience on the big stage and his clear motivation to return to the mountaintop this week. PGA Championship hat trick? Feels very possible/likely.
We could witness Hovland’s breakthrough on Sunday, plain and simple. He fumbled a bit on 18 today but realistically he’s Koepka’s biggest threat tomorrow if he can keep his head together on a major Sunday. Given their separation from the rest of the field currently and the solid weather conditions tomorrow I think he finally puts together a solid finale round… at the very least we have to hedge for that possibility (definitely a “not if, but when” type player).
Rory’s a long shot here but at +2200 odds at a course he’s extremely fond of/surrounded by family all week, it’s definitely possible we could witness some greatness on Sunday. We saw glimpses of what he’s capable of on Saturday and he’ll need some help from the leaders… but Rory’s accomplished crazier feats in the past.
It’s honestly a head scratcher that we can still get a Top 20 bet on Matsuyama considering he’s already tied for 20th heading into Sunday. He’s striking the ball beautifully, he’s had a significant advantage off the tee all week and he’s been cleaning up around the greens (he literally chipped in for birdie today on 18). Matsuyama’s putter has been his Achilles heel all week but if he keeps giving himself opportunities (like he has all week) then the putts should start to drop eventually. I like him to maintain his position inside the top 20 (at the very least) when things are all said and done tomorrow.
4th Round Matchup Bets
Jordan Spieth (-115) (1 unit) vs Max Homa
I wouldn’t have guessed this one coming into the tournament given Spieth’s left wrist injury but he’s played unperturbed all week and Homa has been in his head from the jump. Spieth has outpaced Homa in virtually every single strokes gained category this week with the exception of putting (Homa has a slight advantage in Strokes Gained: Around The Green as well but it’s minuscule) and he has a lower 4th Round Scoring Average than Homa on the year. The two players are also on opposite trajectories from Thursday through Saturday. Spieth opened up the tournament with a 73 followed by a 72 and a 71 vs Homa’s opening round of 71 followed by a 72 and 74. Spieth’s putter can get going in a hurry, he’s clearly more comfortable in majors than Homa and Spieth averages almost an entire stroke better when he plays early rounds vs late rounds (he’s in the third group to tee it up tomorrow morning). All signs point to a solid Spieth showing tomorrow.
4th Round Props
Scottie Scheffler To Shoot 68 or Better (+160) (1 unit)
Doubling down on our boy to at least show up tomorrow and make things interesting. It looked like the poor weather conditions threw him off a bit early (especially his footwork in the wet conditions) but the opportunities to make birdies were there most of the round. Scheffler is in an unfamiliar position heading into Sunday… you know, since he’s not in the lead heading into Sunday for once… so I think there’s a great chance he comes out relaxed and plays some world class golf in the sunshine tomorrow. Don’t be surprised to see Scheffler post the low score in the clubhouse and give the last groups something to think about. Just for context, Scheffler still has 3.596 total strokes gained on the field heading into Sunday (3.4 Strokes Gained: Tee To Green alone) so if his putter lights up… watch out.
Jon Rahm To Shoot 69 or Better (-105) (1 unit)
Also doubling down on the big man to bounce back a bit on Sunday after another dismal round on Saturday. Rahm should come out loose on Sunday morning since he’s already played himself out of contention and he’ll be looking to save face after losing his cool multiple times during his round yesterday. Going off of his numbers all season…. Rahm should be able to attack this course which we saw a quick glimpse of during his Friday round of 68. I suspect the course to play an average closer to 70-70.5 strokes across the field today given the better weather conditions and final round circumstances so if Rahm can piece together another decent round like Friday (where his Strokes Gained: Tee To Green on the field was 4.821) by continuing to attack the scoring holes on the back nine and maintaining his temper on the tougher holes then he should easily post a red number today. Can’t keep the world #1 down forever!
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