NFL Conference Championship Bets

Our NFL heater continues… +8.075 units over the past two weeks heading into conference championships. Your boys are locked in and we feel great about the second to last week of the season (depressing, I know). If you’re lucky enough to have a team still playing at this point, “congrats”. If you’re like the rest of us, let’s dial in on some value and dry our tears with some cash. Keep riding this wave with us and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 20: 36-45 Overall, -4.408 Units Total, +5.865 Units Since Week 18)

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 1/29 (3:00 PM EST)

Game Breakdown

Purdy and Hurts finally get a rematch since their last collegiate face off in 2019 (Purdy was playing for Iowa State and Hurts was playing for Oklahoma). That game was absolutely electric… resulting in a 42-41 Oklahoma victory and both QBs combining for 555 passing yards, 123 rushing yards and 11 total TDs. It’s worth mentioning that Hurts was throwing the ball to Ceedee Lamb that year and Purdy had Breece Hall in the backfield, but given this weekend’s matchup it’s definitely safe to say that these two young QBs led the charge in that shootout. 

I don’t see history repeating itself this weekend regarding another high scoring affair. Both of these defenses are very very good and both offenses face numerous question marks heading into Sunday. This matchup has a war of attrition type feel to it in the biggest game of two young QBs’ careers who face arguably the two best defenses in the league. Hurts probably won’t be 100% as he’s still recovering from a shoulder injury in Week 15 and Purdy is a rookie whose 9th career start is a conference championship away game. I think points will be at a premium throughout this game without question. So which sub 25 year old QB pulls off the W?

Ultimately I see a combination of factors putting the Eagles over the top in a tight one on Sunday. Philly’s home field advantage, the rest from their first round bye, a slight edge in the passing game and Jalen Hurts’ additional year of NFL experience over Purdy… pick your poison, 49ers fans. Brock Purdy feels like he’s been playing on borrowed time throughout the postseason and Philly’s defense should be the best he’s faced all season. I think it’s likely that San Fran emphasizes the run game in this matchup due to the Eagles stellar secondary but that could prove troublesome if CMC isn’t 100% after last week (possible calf issue). Even if CMC is 100%, Philly’s run defense is solid. The Eagles decided to make the move to acquire star WR AJ Brown this past offseason and boy has he added an extra dimension to that offense. San Francisco’s ability to defend the pass has been somewhat of a liability at times throughout this season (allowing over 238 passing yards per game) and numerous WR1s have already exposed them (most recently Ceedee Lamb last week… 10 receptions for 112 yards). Even if Jalen isn’t 100% he still looked pretty solid in Philly’s blowout divisional round victory and he has the luxury of throwing the ball to AJ Brown and Heisman trophy winner Devonta Smith… Purdy gains some valuable experience on Sunday and Hurts advances to his first Super Bowl. Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – 49ers 23.

Pick: 2 Way Parlay: Eagles Moneyline, Eagles/49ers Total Points Under 58.5 (+101) (1 unit) 

Props: AJ Brown Total Receiving Yards Over 69.5 (-114) (1 unit) & Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (+130) (0.5 units)

Why did the Eagles trade for AJ Brown this past offseason? For this exact type of matchup. AJ Brown is averaging over 84 receiving yards/game this season (99.6 receiving yards/game in his last 5 games) and he’s covered 69.5 yards in over 55% of his games this year. San Fran’s secondary has looked fraudulent covering elite WR1s this season, giving up massive games to DK Metcalf (10 receptions, 136 receiving yards, 2 TDs), Ceedee Lamb (10 receptions, 117 receiving yards), Davante Adams (7 receptions, 153 receiving yards, 2 TDs), Terry McLaurin (4 receptions, 77 receiving yards), Tyreek Hill (9 receptions, 146 receiving yards, 1 TD), Deandre Hopkins (9 receptions, 91 receiving yards), Cooper Kupp (Game 1: 14 receptions, 122 receiving yards; Game 2: 8 receptions, 79 receiving yards, 1 TD), Courtland Sutton (8 receptions, 97 receiving yards), Tyler Lockett (9 receptions, 107 receiving yards) and 3 different Chiefs pass catchers combined for 16 receptions/333 receiving yards. Some quick math for you… that’s an average of 8 receptions and 112.15 receiving yards/game out of that group. Easy money. Prop Prediction: 91 Receiving Yards.

Hurts has scored a rushing TD in 14 of his 16 games this season (87.5% clip). He found pay dirt against the Giants last week and overall his health didn’t appear to be a massive concern which makes me think Sirianni intends to totally turn Hurts loose against the 49ers this weekend. The 49ers run defense is great overall but they’re actually pretty average (at best) when it comes to defending QB runs in the red zone this season. That obviously bodes well for one of the best dual threat QBs in the game right now… Expect Jalen to find the end zone in this crucial game either off a scramble or designed QB run. Prop Prediction: 1 TD.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 1/29 (6:30 PM EST)

Breakdown

Don’t look now but the Bengals are the scariest team to face in the league at the moment. The reigning AFC champs are back to defend their title against an injured Patrick Mahomes who suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jags last week. The Bengals have the most lethal passing game in football led by superstar Joe Burrow and WR1A Ja’Marr Chase/WR1B Tee Higgins but you can’t sleep on RB Joe Mixon or the connection that Burrow has developed with TE Hayden Hurst either. Cincinnati is on fire right now after dismantling Buffalo in the divisional round (at Buffalo) and winning their last 10 games in a row. It’s also worth mentioning that Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes in his career.

This game has the makings of a shootout. Both defenses are stingy against the run but struggle defending the pass and they will face the two best pass offenses in the NFL led by arguably the best two QBs in the league. Needless to say, the pigskin will fly. The Chiefs have home field advantage and there’s no doubt that Mahomes is hungry to get his first win against Burrow but playing on a sprained ankle in the cold (and potential snow) is no small task. 

Ultimately I see Burrow continuing his undefeated streak against Mahomes this weekend in what could certainly develop into an instant classic. Cincy’s offense is simply too good for the Chiefs secondary which should make it extremely difficult for Mahomes to keep up on a bum ankle. I think this one comes down to the wire but I’m siding with the healthier of the two star QBs on Sunday. Score Prediction: Bengals 27 – Chiefs 24.

Pick: 2 Way Parlay: Bengals Moneyline, Bengals/Chiefs Total Points Over 36.5 (+140) (1 unit)

Props: Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (+105) (0.5 units), Joe Burrow Over 1.5 TD Passes (-140) (1 unit), Ja’Marr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions (-130) (1 unit) & Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-130) (1 unit)

Travis Kelce’s stats for you… This season: averaging ~6.89 receptions/game and ~0.78 TDs/game. Last 5 games: averaging ~8.6 receptions/game (14 receptions last week) and scored 2 TDs against the Jags last week. Playoffs since 2020: averaging ~9.71 receptions/game and ~1.14 TDs/game. Expect another massive target share for one of the greatest TEs of all time this Sunday. Prop Predictions: 8.3 Receptions & 1 TD.

Burrow is averaging ~2.11 Pass TDs/game this season, covering this prop in 12 out of 18 games, and he’s thrown for 13 TDs over his last 5 games. Burrow has ice coursing through his veins and he only seems to improve on the biggest of stages. He’s averaged ~2.67 Pass TDs/game against the Chiefs over the three different times he’s faced them and he’s thrown for at least 2 TDs in every single one of those meetings. It might be a cold one in Kansas City on Sunday but the Bengals are no strangers to the cold and it didn’t seem to affect them one bit in Buffalo last week. Joe Brrrrr sighting incoming. Prop Prediction: 2.4 Pass TDs.

Chase is averaging ~7.2 receptions/game this season, 7 receptions/game this postseason and ~7.83 receptions/game over his last 6 games. This could very well turn into a shootout, Chase and Burrow have a Brady/Moss type connection and Chase averages 8 receptions/game against the Chiefs. Expect to see the griddy on full display this weekend. Prop Prediction: 7.6 Receptions.

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 20: 42-44-1 Overall, -4.4075 Units Total, +2.21 Units Since Week 18)

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 1/29 (3:00 PM EST)
Picks: Eagles -2.5 (-110) (1 unit) & Total Points Under 46.5 (-110) (1 unit)

If you thought I had a hard-on for the AFC matchup, I might feel even more strongly about this NFC matchup. While great QB play is fun and that is what typically drives NFL ratings, there is nothing more appealing to me than two absolutely fierce defenses squaring off in a big time game like the NFC Championship. The Eagles come in with arguably the best pass rush in NFL history. Not only did they break their franchise sack record this year but they became the first team ever to have four guys with 10+ sacks, that is incredible. Slay, Bradberry and Garder-Johnson in the secondary are also absolute killers which is why they ended up with the #1 pass defense in the NFL. On the other sideline, Brock Purdy has been remarkable but he’s only played one pass defense ranked in the top 12 this year and that was Dallas last week. Yes the Niners won, but that was not a pretty game for Purdy. The 49ers strength is running the ball but it’s been pretty much proven over previous seasons that they’ll have to pass the ball well if they want to win the Super Bowl. I think they’ll be able to run on Philly just fine but I think the difference maker here is Purdy who looks more like a rookie each week. The 49ers defense is equally as sexy as the Eagles. Nick Bosa will win DPOY and the linebacker play between Wagner and Greenlaw is some of the best you’ll see across the league in any season. With that said, I think Jalen the birds will find a way to grind them down and score enough to cover the -2.5 and win. We may see the 49ers defense get exposed a bit as they haven’t played offense on the caliber of Philly since week 7 when the Chiefs hung 44 points on them. I do like this to go under as I think both offenses will struggle early in this one as well. Score Prediction: Eagles 23 – 49ers 16. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 1/29 (6:30 PM EST)
Picks: Chiefs -1 (-110) (1 unit), Total Points Under 47.5 (-110) (1 unit), Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD Scorer (-105) (0.75 units), Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (+105) (0.75 units)

I’m gonna start by saying what an absolute beautiful couple of Conference Championship games that we get on Sunday. For most of the year I’ve felt like these four teams are the best in their respective conferences and I anticipate some great football. The NFL is king to no one’s surprise. Starting in KC, I’ve gone back and forth on this one in my head all week. After seeing Mahomes practicing in full the last couple days I’m absolutely bummed I didn’t jump on KC +2.5. I’d also like to point out this is not me saying I don’t believe in the Cincinnati Bengals, Joe Burrow is the absolute truth and it’s gonna be incredible to watch him play for many many years to come. This game is going to be close and I would simply rather put my chips on Mahomes when all is said and done. First, the Bengals are getting all sorts of praise for keeping the Bills pass rush at bay last week with multiple backups starting on their O-line. While that is commendable, this Chiefs defense is a completely different beast. Trevor Lawrence looked awfully uncomfortable last week at KC and played a very inefficient 25/39 for just 217 yards. Burrow is definitely better than Lawrence (for now) but I expect Chris Jones and Co. to disrupt the Bengals passing game much more than the Bills did. While the Chiefs defense isn’t quite on the same level as the Ravens, I’d expect the Bengals O to look more like that Ravens game than how they looked in Buffalo. This game should in theory hinge on the Chiefs ability to stop the run. That’s something they didn’t do very well against Cincy in week 13 but something they’re certainly capable of (finished the season 8th in rush yards allowed per game). I’m also gonna sit on the under as I think both teams will struggle to move the ball early, and it’s also a mini-hedge against Mahomes’ bum ankle. I’ve also added Kelce and Chase to score a touchdown (separate, not parlayed) and think it’s highly plausible they both score and also serves as a mini-hedge against my under bet. In summary, I’m envisioning a closely contested low scoring game with plenty of action for two of the best pass-catching targets in the NFL. Score Prediction: Chiefs 24 – Bengals 20. 

Disclaimer: SidehustlebetsMJQ.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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