NFL Divisional Week Bets

No reason to mention our +5.87 units heater last week, whoops… Bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 19: 31-41 Overall, -6.193 Units Total)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs/NY Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Chiefs Moneyline, Eagles Moneyline, Cowboys/49ers Total Points Under 58.5 (-108) (1 unit)

There’s simply no way Patrick Mahomes loses this game, plain and simple. I love Trevor Lawrence… but a head to head shootout possibility against arguably the best QB in football right now is far from ideal. The Jags defense overall is average at best but it’s truly awful in regards to covering the pass. The Chiefs defense isn’t great but it’s at least pretty solid defending the run. I suspect Mahomes completely tears apart this sorry Jags secondary in the first half and proceeds to kill the game from there (at home). Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 – Jaguars 23.

The Giants are playing in the Divisional Round with a -6 point differential on the season… Their luck finally runs out in Philly this week. Philly has one of the best run offenses in the league and they face one of the worst teams at defending the run in the league. Expect Danny Nickels on Saturday. Score Prediction: Eagles 27 – Giants 21.

This last leg is somewhat of a sleeper. The public absolutely expects a relatively high scoring shootout Sunday between two divisional rivals who haven’t played each other all season… I doubt that. I see two solid defenses (SF arguably has the best defense in the NFL) squaring off against a QB who almost always chokes on big stages (Dak) and a rookie QB who was literally Mr. Irrelevant in that past year’s draft (Brock Purdy; last pick in the draft). I’m banking on Dak to “postseason Dak” and Purdy to show his green horn (rookie reference). Score Prediction: 49ers 26 – Cowboys 23.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, 1/21 (4:30 PM EST)
Pick: Chiefs 1st Half Total Points Over 15.5 (-105) (1 unit) & Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Over 99.5 (+200) (0.5 units)

The Chiefs have averaged over 18 points (in the first half) over their last 5 games, the Jags allowed the Chargers to score 27 points in the first half last week (at home) and the Chiefs are going to attack Jacksonville’s secondary right away without a doubt. Expect KC to come out hot in the first half. (1H) Score Prediction: Chiefs 17 – Jags 10.

Travis Kelce is by far the best TE in professional football. Not only is Kelce the best TE in the NFL (with the best QB in the NFL throwing him the pigskin), but he’s also facing the worst team in the league at defending TEs… Fun fact, Kelce has averaged ~110 receiving yards per game in the postseason since 2020 (6 games). Prop Prediction: 107.4 Receiving Yards.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, 1/22 (6:30 PM EST)
Pick: Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Over 14.5 (-115) (1 unit)

Dak saves his legs for the playoffs historically. For all of the triggered Cowboys fans out there, listen to these stats… Dak averages 19.2 rushing yards/game in the playoffs, 0.8 rush TDs/playoff game and San Fran has given up well over 14.5 rushing yards/game to opposing QBs over their last two games. Choosing not to press my luck on back to back Dak TDs (simply because his odds were slashed in half this week… DO NOT let other sites trick you into thinking otherwise) but I do think he covers 14.5 yards relatively easily. Prop Prediction: 17.43 Rushing Yards.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD Scorer (+175) (0.5 units)

Simply too juicy to resist (especially since Dak already hit his rushing yards prop and the under of 58.5 feels like a lock)… McCaffrey’s TD Scorer prop pregame was sitting around -150/165… after the half it’s all the way to +175. Half unit? Yes please.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills – Sunday, 1/22 (3:00 PM EST)
Pick: Joe Burrow/Josh Allen Total Interceptions over 1.5 (+115) (0.75 units) & Josh Allen Total Rushing Yards Over 46.5 (-110) (1 unit)

It’s hard to say if this prop is a “hot take” at this point. Burrow and Allen have combined for 28 INTs this year through only 17 games each (both including the postseason). The Bengals offensive line is a tragic comedy… They tried to address last season’s Super Bowl woes through the draft yet they’re still forced to play the Bills without three of their starters upfront. Joe Burrow will be slinging it without a doubt, he’ll have zero to no time to do so and there’s a great chance that the Bengals are playing from behind for a lot of the game given the environment. I heavily contemplated taking Joe Burrow to throw a pick at -130 straight up, but he’s playing against Josh Allen (the most volatile QB since Jameis in Tampa). Josh Allen is so close to literally AVERAGING 1 interception per game (16 INTs through 17 games, INT in ~94.12% of his games this season) and he’s thrown 5 INTs in his last 4 games alone. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of these young gunslingers to turn the ball over multiple times. Prop Prediction: 3 Total INTs.

Adding this popular Josh Allen prop after analyzing his postseason rushing stats. One thing is clear, the Bills save Allen’s legs for big games… Josh Allen has averaged 47.625 rushing yards per game during the 2022 regular season and (excluding last week’s victory over a Skylar Thompson led Dolphins team) he’s averaged ~61.83 rushing yards per game in the postseason. Given the massive implications of this rematch against the Bengals, both professional and emotional, I’m expecting a “win at all costs” effort out of Allen and his Bills at home on Sunday. Prop Prediction: 67 Rushing Yards.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles – Saturday, 1/21 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Miles Sanders Anytime TD Scorer (+115) (0.5 units) & Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Over 67.5 (-110) (1 unit)

The Giants are the worst team at defending the run in the NFL and the Eagles are the #1 run offense in the league. Jalen Hurts is still banged up so there’s a good chance that his legs will be used cautiously throughout the game which means it could be a big day for Miles Sanders. Sanders has averaged 74.65 rushing yards per game on the season and he ran for 144 yards against the Giants back in December. There’s a solid chance that the Eagles could run away with this game which is even better for Sanders’ rushing yards total. Throwing a TD scorer prop in there as well considering Sanders has 11 TDs on the year (2 of which came against the Giants during his 144 rushing yard performance in Week 14). Prop Predictions: 1 TD, 87 Rushing Yards.

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 19: 39-41-1 Overall, -4.8275 Units Total)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs/NY Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: Chiefs -2.5, Eagles -1.5 (-110) (1 unit) & Same Game Parlay: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TD Passes, Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (+152) (0.5 units)

It pains me to pick against the Jags after last week but I simply think both these 1 seeded teams will find a way to win after having a bye last week. 

Kansas City has struggled to cover large spreads all year so I’m going to stay away from the big number and tease them down inside of a FG. The Chiefs are a dreadful 6-10-1 on the season against the spread, 4th worst in the NFL. The only teams behind them are Chicago, Indy and Tampa. Even more bizarre, they’re 2-5-1 at home. Those stats would probably tell you to take the Jags with the points this week, but I’m not gonna pick against Mahomes after a week of rest. KC is going to be very loud and very cold which should be problematic for the boys from Jacksonville. Something being slept on this year is the Chiefs defense, particularly their ability to pressure the QB. They’re number one in pass rush win rate in the NFL and Chris Jones is a huge part of that. He’s an absolute monster on the interior. Trevor Lawrence may be running for his life all afternoon, and we may see shades of his poor play against the Chargers in the first half last week. I’m also sprinkling in a half unit on a same game parlay for this one, Mahomes over 2.5 TD passes and Kelce anytime TD. Those two things should sync up nicely, along with a Chiefs win by three or more points. Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 – Jags 24.

The Eagles are a matchup nightmare for the Giants. This NYG defense has been solid in 2022 but they can be gashed by the run, which is exactly what Philly did to them in week 14. Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders and Boston Scott combined for 253 yards on the ground on just 30 total carries. They whomped the Giants 48-22 and that game was over at halftime. Daboll is an awesome coach and the Giants should be fun for years to come but I get the feeling they’re just happy to be here after taking down Cousins last week in Minny. The Vikings may have lost that game, but they moved the ball incredibly efficiently and seemed to poke a lot of holes in the Giant’s defense. If not for the Vikings having one of the worst defenses in the NFL they would have won that game. The Eagles are a different beast and a week of rest should have them healthy and fired up for Saturday night at the Linc. Jalen’s health is really the only question mark here but they can definitely still win with him at 75%. Score Prediction: Eagles 31 – Giants 23.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, 1/22 (6:30 PM EST)
Pick: Cowboys +4 (-110) (1 unit)

Last week in Tampa, the Cowboys looked like the team we thought they should be all year. They were efficient in all phases of their offense and Dak finally played like a winner and not like the big sad loser he typically looks like in January. I think a big part of that is Mike McCarthy. We all love to rag on McCarthy as he makes some questionable decisions on the sideline from time to time, but this team has a different edge to it that we never saw with Jason Garrett (shocker). The lynchpin on defense is Micah Parsons who wreaks havoc on opposing QBs which could be a rude awakening for Brock Purdue. I’ve loved the Purdy story, and he’s been electric, but the only solid win he had over that late stretch of the season was against the Dolphins (when they still had Tua). Other than that, he beat up on a bunch of bad teams + an undermatched Seahawks defense twice. The Cowboys will be a different beast for him and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle. SF can always win with their run game so I would hesitate to take the Cowboys money line but I love sitting on the spread here. This could be a low scoring affair in which case you always want to have the points. Score Prediction: Cowboys 17 – 49ers 20.

Pick: 49ers -3.5 (-105) (1.1 units)

Hedging out of my Cowboys +4 wager since Pollard is out and Maher is still looking like a pumpkin. Dak also appears to be the same old Dak. Good riddance Cowboys.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills – Sunday, 1/22 (3:00 PM EST)
Pick: Bengals +6 (-110) (0.5 units) & Total Points Over 48.5 (-110) (0.5 units)

This line has been creeping up all week, starting around +5 on Monday and now settling around +6 with 24 hours until kick off. It is shocking considering how the Bengals looked just a couple weeks ago but that story really boils down to the Bengals OL.  If they can give Burrow just a bit of time and keep him off the ground they will have no problem staying in this game. The Bills defense is nothing compared to the Ravens defense that Cincy saw last week. We’re talking about a Bills defense that let the Skylar Thompson Dolphins score 31 points. And a big part of that point total was Josh Allen and the Bills carelessness with the football which will only get more precarious against a stout Bengals defense. The Bengals always game-plan really well on that side of the ball and DC Lou Anarumo makes incredible in-game adjustments. That landed the Bengals 12th best in the league in total yards allowed and 5th in points allowed for 2022. You also can’t discount the fact that the Bengals just find a way to stay in games and typically win them. We saw it last year all the way to the Super Bowl, and I don’t see it stopping this week. I’m going to split a unit between Bengals spread and the over as this feels like a high scoring affair that will be won in the 4th Q. Score Prediction: Bengals 30 – Bills 28.

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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