The SHB playoff heater continued through Conference Championship weekend as we gained another 2.6 units, putting us up 10+ units in the NFL playoffs. And you better believe the foot is absolutely not coming off the gas for the biggest sports betting day of the calendar year. A strong showing in the Super Bowl would put us above 50% and on the plus side of the unit counter for the entire season. Pretty damn good in a year that had us both on the ropes at the halfway point. While your favorite local sports bar might be cooking up nachos and chicken wings on Sunday, we’ve cooked up a fresh batch of winners (what else is new). Let’s finish the season on a high note that can carry us through the doldrums of football-less Spring and Summer.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 21: 47-45-1 Overall, -0.728 Units Total, +5.89 Units Since Week 18)
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 2/12 (6:30 PM EST)
Chiefs +1.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Total Points Under 51 (-110) (1 unit)
2 Way Parlay: Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer, Travis Kelce 60+ Receiving Yards (+130) (1 unit)
I’ve spent the last two weeks reflecting on these picks and I’ve come to the conclusion that there’s simply no world where I’m betting against Mahomes on this stage. The public is also piling on the Eagles and the Over which makes me even more confident that KC and the Under is the play. I think both of these defensive lines will cause problems for their opponents, particularly in the first half as they feel each other out. Chris Jones is a wrecking ball on the inside and Frank Clark is a beast on the edge. The Eagles pass rush is notably absurd, I mentioned it last week and it’s been said many times on TV, but the Eagles having four guys with 10+ sacks this season is bananas. If you’re an Eagles backer I’d be worried about putting my money on a team that has only gone through Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy/Josh Johnson in the playoffs. I’ve got news for you, Patrick Mahomes is more powerful than both of those guys combined. Mahomes should be feeding Kelce early and often and he’s a touchdown machine in big games. I’ll probably be betting Kelce 2+ TDs on the side for a micro unit or two but that isn’t going on the record books. This is not the time for some deep analytical and statistical arguments, the Super Bowl is all feel and it’s time to put your nuts on the table. Mahomes will be holding the Lombardi and SB MVP trophy in hand on Sunday evening. Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 – Eagles 23.
Super Bowl Specials (no actual units on these bets)
Coin Toss: Tails (never fails) (-104)
Gatorade Bath: Clear/Water (+1200)
Drake Curse – What Team Apparel Will Drake Wear on Sunday: Eagles (+245) (haha loser)
First TV Ad – Doritos vs Pringles: Pringles (+330)
Jersey # of First TD Scorer: Over 11.5 (-125)
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 20: 40-49 Overall, -5.453 Units Total, +4.82 Units Since Week 18)
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 1/29 (3:00 PM EST)
3 Way Parlay: Chiefs +14.5, Total Points Under 59.5, Patrick Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards (+105) (1 unit) & Chiefs Moneyline (+115) (0.5 units)
I simply can’t resist backing Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl with the points… The guy’s due for his second championship, the NFL seems determined to make it happen (yes, that is a jab at the AFC Championship officiating) and people seem to forget how easy Philly’s path to the Super Bowl (and really their entire season) has been to this point. The best team that the Eagles have faced this year is either the Cowboys, Packers or Josh Johnson’s 49ers… woof. I do think the Eagles are a great team but the astronomical numbers they’ve been putting up on both sides of the ball this season are definitely inflated a bit by their cake schedule. The public is calling for a shootout, I actually think this game hits the under. Both defenses are very, very good (KC included). Chris Jones has been an absolute beast this season (17.5 sacks, 49 tackles) and the Chiefs run defense is good enough to force Jalen Hurts to beat them with his arm… which hasn’t panned out well for Hurts in the past (college or NFL). The Eagles secondary is probably the best in the league and they face off against the best passing offense in football so it’s hard to tell how the cookie will crumble there. Likely we’ll see a battle for the ages that results in fewer points than the public is expecting. Ultimately I like the Chiefs to pull off the victory in a tight one. Better grease the light poles in Philly this weekend regardless of the outcome. Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 – Eagles 24.
Isiah Pacheco Total Rushing/Receiving Yards Over 65.5 (-110) (1 unit) & Isiah Pacheco Total Receiving Yards Over 12.5 (-115) (1 unit)
I think Pacheco could be in for a BIG day on Sunday. The rookie speedster is averaging 60.5 rushing yards in the playoffs and he posted a career high 59 receiving yards against the Bengals in the AFC Championship. The Eagles are averaging ~31.79 receiving yards/game to RBs this season and given Philly’s stout secondary there’s a great chance Pacheco gets quite a bit of burn on Sunday (projected around 12 carries). Taking action on Pacheco’s total yardage (again, big day coming) as well as his receiving yards specifically. Prop Predictions: 77 Total Yards, 22 Receiving Yards.
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-165) (1 unit)
I mean, no brainer… 45 passing TDs on the year, 2 pass TDs/game in the postseason and it’s Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl… Mahomes is the definition of “matchup proof”, don’t overthink it. Prop Prediction: 2 Pass TDs.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (-105) (0.5 units), Miles Sanders Anytime TD Scorer (+117) (0.5 units), Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (-120) (0.5 units)
Betting 1.5 units across three of the most likely players to find the end zone, banking on at least 2 out of 3 to hit. Sanders has quietly put up career numbers this season, scoring 13 times and twice in the postseason. Hurts has 15 rushing TDs on the season (1 rushing TD/game in the postseason) and Sirianni doesn’t hide his love for QB sneaks near the end zone. The Eagles love to pound the ball in the red zone so as long as Gainwell or Boston Scott don’t vulture more TDs (which is annoyingly always possible…) then it’s virtually a lock that either Hurts or Sanders will hit paydirt (or both). Hot take on Travis Kelce, he scores touchdowns… 15 TDs this season to be exact (3 in the postseason alone). Never a bad idea to back Mahomes’ favorite target to score, especially given Tyreek Hill’s departure and Kansas City’s wounded WR corps. Prop Predictions: You’ll see all three of these guys attempt the griddy on Sunday.
2 Way Parlay: Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions, Travis Kelce 60+ Receiving Yards (+125) (1 unit)
Going back to the Kelce well here. Mahomes #1 target, averaging ~6.89 receptions/game (10.5 receptions/game this postseason), averaging ~79.68 receiving yards/game (88 receiving yards/game this postseason) and he’s playing his brother (Jason Kelce) in the Super Bowl… Expect Kelce to show out and do Kelce things on Sunday. Prop Predictions: 8.8 Receptions, 82.84 Receiving Yards.
Eagles Over 2.5 Sacks (-150) (1 unit)
Philly’s terrifying pass rush is averaging 4.1 sacks/game on the year and 3.3 sacks/game over their last three games. They’ve covered 2.5 sacks in 73.68% of their games this season (14/19). Thought about taking the Eagles for most sacks head to head vs the Chiefs but decided to place my faith in Philly’s total specifically given how well Chris Jones is playing for KC right now. Prop Prediction: 3.7 Sacks.
Over 10 Total Penalties (-135) (1 unit)
Normally I don’t love tailing the public on popular prop bets but this one feels like an absolute lock. Carl Cheffers will be officiating on Sunday and his officiating squad calls the most penalties in the NFL by a long shot (year over year). Cheffers has called at least 11 penalties in over 75% of the games he’s officiated, averaging ~12.59 penalties called per game… The Chiefs and Eagles have combined to average ~10.1 penalties per game this season so it feels very likely that Cheffers strikes again on Sunday (over 10 times). Prop Prediction: 12 Penalties.
Opening Kickoff a Touchback? Yes (-155) (1 unit)
Philly has a kickoff touchback percentage of 65.45% on the year and 82.98% playing in away stadiums. Kansas City has a kickoff touchback percentage of 64.55% on the year and 71.43% playing in away stadiums. The game is being played in a dome and either kicker is bound to be extremely jacked up at kickoff (I mean come on… it’s the SUPER BOWL). Love this prop regardless of which team wins the toss.
Super Bowl Specials (no actual units on these bets)
Coin Toss: Tails (-104)
Gatorade Bath: Red/Pink (+550)
First Mention During MVP Speech: God/Religion (+370)
First Beer Brand Commercial to Air (Budweiser vs Heineken): Budweiser (-115)
Team to Make First Coach’s Challenge: Eagles (+100)
Fastest Ball Carrier: Pacheco (+400)
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