CFB Bowl Week 4 (Through 1/2)

Well, it looks like Clemson nation will have to wait until next season to see Project Klubnik come to fruition but we live to fight another day (thanks to DPJ… shout out to a monstrous 4-0 week for +3.8 units to keep the boys afloat this past week). Now that the absolute dumpster fire that was the Orange Bowl is behind us, it’s time to get back on track with our last few bowl games before the natty rolls around. Remember to focus on value vs game hype and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (Since Week 17: 19-18 Overall, +2.342 Units)

Alabama vs Kansas State (Sugar Bowl) – Saturday, 12/31 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Alabama -6.5 (-110) (1 unit)

People are foolish to fade this Bama team. The fact that Bryce Young and Will Anderson are both playing (quite possibly the first 2-3 picks in this year’s NFL Draft) and this line is still under a touchdown is an absolute steal for bettors everywhere. Both of Alabama’s losses were nail biters at away stadiums (1 point loss at LSU and 3 point loss to a Hendon Hooker led Volunteers team), Bryce Young has been hurt most of the year and likely has something to prove after a disappointing season and I just don’t see Saban not blowing out Kansas State in a bowl setting. Let’s be real… if some things had shaken out differently at the end of the year then this Alabama team would be playing in the CFP and you know they’d be competitive. Kansas State has had a great year but there’s a great chance they’re walking into a buzzsaw on Saturday vs a pissed off Crimson Tide team that has heard nothing but criticism all year long. I love Deuce Vaughn but I doubt the Deuce will be loose against this Bama defensive front and when it comes to the Wildcats defense… the SEC is very different from the Big 12. Tide’s going to roll at the Sugar Bowl. Score Prediction: Alabama 31 – Kansas State 20.

TCU vs Michigan (Fiesta Bowl) – Saturday, 12/31 (4:00 PM EST)
Pick: Max Duggan Rushing Yards Over 23.5 (-110) (1 unit)

This Michigan team feels overrated after the Ohio State game… especially considering everyone was ready to write them off after Blake Corum went down heading into that game. The final score in that match up is misleading and the game simply got away from Ohio State late into the second half which is inflating this line against TCU. TCU feels like a team of destiny so I think there’s a great chance they keep this one close but I’m going to direct my attention to Max Duggan specifically. Duggan has become the heart and soul of this Horned Frogs offense and he ran for over 100 yards against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship (110 yards to be exact). Duggan is averaging over 31 rush yards per game heading into Saturday, Michigan should bring a pass rush that will force him to scramble and Duggan is the type of passionate player who’s likely to take the game into his own hands once needed. Prop Prediction: 40.75 yards.

Pick: Michigan 2H (Second Half) -7 (-115) (1 unit)

So this game is absolutely WILD. We’ve pretty much already cashed our Max Duggan rushing prop (30 rushing yards at halftime) and despite missing my opportunity to get in on the TCU action pregame I think I see another angle to take advantage of this chaos. This 21-6 score line at half is extremely misleading… Don’t get me wrong, TCU is playing lights out but the pick 6 early in the game can’t go ignored and Michigan did fumble the ball on the 1 yard line after a highly questionable call. Michigan is not getting manhandled like the score would suggest and this game is definitely not over. By taking Michigan to win the second half by at least a TD we’re simply betting on Michigan to cut into this massive deficit at half by at least a TD. Definitely feels like an attainable feat for the undefeated Big Ten champs.

DPJ’s Best Bets (Since Week 17: 28-24 Overall, +2.417 Units)

Alabama vs Kansas State (Sugar Bowl) – Saturday, 12/31 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Kansas State +7.5 (-110) (1 unit)

***LATE ADDITION*** DPJ is taking advantage of some late line movement and grabbing the Wildcats at +7.5. Breakdown to follow.

LSU vs Purdue/Penn State vs Utah
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: LSU Moneyline, Utah Moneyline (+106) (1 unit)

Utah vs Penn State should be a spectacular Rose Bowl. Great uniform matchup, loyal 

fan bases, well rounded teams, should be fun from start to finish. I think Utah does enough in this one to pull out a W and it should hinge on stopping the run on defense. That has been Utah’s recipe all year, which has made up for a lackluster pass defense. Penn State is a good team but I think you need an elite QB to beat the Utes. Score Prediction: Utah 27 – Penn State 24

LSU and Purdue should be a snooze fest. The Boilermakers are only in this game because they won the god awful Big 10 West, and LSU is favored by double digits. I don’t see this one being particularly close and the game could be over at half time. At best Purdue mucks it up and keeps it inside of 10 points. Score Prediction: LSU 31 – Purdue 17.

Tulane vs USC (Cotton Bowl) – Monday, 1/2 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Tulane +2 (-110) (0.75 units)

This line feels awfully low for a USC team that was a game away from the CFP with Caleb Williams under center. With that being said…I’m taking the Green Wave. Tulane is incredibly well balanced and have an impressive seven wins over bowl eligible teams in 2022 (KSU, UCF, Cincy, SMU, Memphis, ECU, Houston). They have an elite run game which usually travels well for bowl games and a strong pass defense which should be critical in the fight against Caleb Williams. And lets not forget even if Caleb plays (as expected) he has a bum hamstring which should slow him down. Tulane also has more to play for in this one, in my opinion. Score Prediction: Tulane 34 – USC 31.

Mississippi State vs Illinois (ReliaQuest Bowl) – Monday, 1/2 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 46 (-110) (0.5 units) & Illinois +2.5 (-110) (0.5 units)

If you haven’t been keeping track, the Big 10 has been having a heck of a bowl season. They’re 4-0 with Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue and Illinois all pending. What has been most impressive is the defenses showing out. Opponents are averaging under 15 points in those four Big 10 bowl games so far. I’m gonna bet on that trend continuing as Illinois comes in with a great defense who should be able to slow down the MSSU passing attack. I’m also going to take Illinois +2.5 even though I’m deathly afraid of the spirit of Mike Leach. Score Prediction: Illinois 24 – Miss State 17.

TCU vs Michigan (Fiesta Bowl)/Ohio State vs Georgia (Peach Bowl)
Pick: TCU +8 (-110) (0.5 units) & Ohio State +5.5 (-110) (0.5 units)


Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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