College football’s conclusion is upon us and it’s setting up to be a good one. While no one is shocked to see Georgia back in the title game, TCU is a shocker and one of the biggest Cinderella stories in college football history. In bigger news, the SHB lock factory continued the heater this past week and hit for another +2.25 units (improving our record to 54-45 for +7.009 units on the year). Thanks for riding with us all season, time to finish strong and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (Since Week 18: 22-18 Overall, +5.032 Units, 13.56% ROI)
TCU vs Georgia – Monday, 1/9 (7:30 PM EST)
Game Pick: 2 Way Parlay: TCU +17.5, Total Points Over 51.5 (-108) (1 unit)
Can’t resist taking some type of action on this huge TCU spread and the over on total points also feels automatic. These two teams have had polar opposite paths to the championship this season and it feels like they could be on different trajectories. TCU feels like a team of destiny right now and Georgia should’ve lost to Ohio State. Georgia’s defense is elite but they’ve allowed 71 combined points in their last two games and they’ve struggled against mobile QBs like Max Duggan. TCU’s defense is coming off a performance against Michigan yielding 14 defensive points, 3 turnovers, 4 sacks and they held the Bulldogs to only 6 points in the first half. While I don’t expect a repeat of that type of production against Georgia, I do think TCU’s defense is good enough to make their offense competitive in a shootout. Ultimately I think Georgia ends up pulling away late but TCU definitely has the firepower to shock the world and should definitely cover 17 points. Georgia’s last two game totals: 80 and 83. TCU’s last two game totals: 59 and 96. The over shouldn’t be in much peril at any point of this game. Score Prediction: Georgia 38 – TCU 27.
Prop Pick 1: Max Duggan Total Rushing Yards Over 28.5 (-105) (1 unit)
Some quick Duggan rushing stats for you… Max Duggan has averaged ~32.93 rushing yards per game this season, 35.8 rushing yards in his last 5 games, 57 rushing yards against Michigan last week (cashing our rushing prop that week) and 110 rushing yards against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. When the game is on the line against good competition, the Horned Frogs rely on Duggan’s feet to get the job done. Worried about Georgia’s defense? They gave up 34 rushing yards to CJ Stroud last week. Expect Duggan to be scrambling most of this game to dodge the Bulldogs pass rush and with their starting RB questionable to play (Kendre Miller) TCU could cook up more designed QB runs for him. I’m expecting this number to crack into the 30s. Prop Prediction: 38 Rushing Yards.
Prop Pick 2: Max Duggan Anytime TD Scorer (+130) (0.5 units)
If this game ends up being a shootout then Duggan should find his way into the end zone at some point. I think TCU is going to have to rely on Duggan’s mobility at several different pivotal points in this game, especially in the red zone, which should mean multiple opportunities to hit pay dirt when Georgia’s talented secondary takes away the pass. Duggan has scored 5 times on the ground in his last 4 games, twice against Michigan alone last week. Love half a unit at these positive odds given Duggan’s scent for the end zone right now as well as the large stage. Prop Prediction: 1 TD.
DPJ’s Best Bets (Since Week 18: 32-27 Overall, +1.977 Units, 3.59% ROI)
TCU vs Georgia – Monday, 1/9 (7:30 PM EST)
Game Pick: TCU +13.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Well well well, the national championship game has arrived. And just as we all expected, the TCU Horned Frogs aka the TCU Hypnotoads aka the Jim Harbaugh Slayers have made an all time run to the top of the mountain, with a chance at immortality on Monday night. This line is so god damn outrageous that I feel like I’m being pranked. Has UGA been the best team in the country all year? Yes. Are they significantly more talented? Yes. Does Kirby Smart look like Hollywood weird Alec Baldwin? Sort of, yes. I imagine the entire world is hammering TCU and I will fall right in line with them and ride the Horned Frogs to the promised land. I might end up sprinkling a couple bucks on the moneyline but 13 points is simply too much to pass up. Duggan is a gamer, Quentin Johnston is an absolute beast, and more importantly the Frogs just have that magical look to them. This should be a high scoring game, it might start slow but I’d be shocked if we don’t get some fireworks in the second or third quarter. This time we’re gonna see Stetson Bennett cry sad tears, not happy tears. Score Prediction: TCU 38 – UGA 37.
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