So last week sucked but we’re not going to cry over spilt milk and we’re definitely not going to let some sunk costs affect our future decision making. With 6 more weeks of NFL football to go the best teams in the league are starting to separate themselves from the rest of the pack so it’s time to isolate the value and capitalize. Jake and I are both hammering the Cowboys this week so we’re pushing out this NFL article a little earlier than usual (considering they play tonight). We’ll be adding bets to this article as we get closer to Sunday so be sure to monitor the site heading into the weekend. Strap in for one of the greatest “get right” heaters in NFL sports betting history. Bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 16: 22-32 Overall, -7.353 Units Total)
Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans/Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs/San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Cowboys -9.5, Chiefs Moneyline, 49ers Moneyline (+120) (1.5 units) & Michael Gallup Total Receptions Over 2.5 (-130) (1 unit)
All of these teams still have something to play for heading into Week 17 regarding playoff seeding position so all starters should play. Locking in this parlay at 1.5 units with confidence.
The Titans have decided to punt on Week 17 since it will ultimately hold zero relevance in their playoff pursuit since everything rides on their Week 18 matchup against the surging Jags. Not only will the Titans be sitting King Henry (a super fun surprise heading into fantasy football championships…) but they’ll also be sitting a ton of pieces on defense, the offensive line and they’re starting Josh Dobbs at QB. The Cowboys, on the other hand, still have the 1 seed in their sights so expect to see Dallas offense on full display Thursday night (with the exception of Tony Pollard). I also love this total receptions over for Gallup given how bad the Titans secondary is, how good the Titans run defense actually is (which should lead to a pass heavy game script for at least the first half) and the fact that he’s covered this number in 6 of his last 8 games. Score Prediction: Cowboys 31 – Titans 13; Prop Prediction: 3.5 Receptions.
Only taking the Chiefs Moneyline in this clash with the Broncos since teams actually tend to bounce back the first game after firing their head coach. Hackett obviously got canned this week but the Broncos still have Russell Wilson under center so I highly doubt Denver’s woes are over, especially against a Chiefs team that could still win the 1 seed in the AFC. Also doesn’t hurt that Mahomes is playing at an MVP level this season and the game is at home. Wouldn’t blame you for taking some action on the Chiefs spread but going conservative with the parlay and simply taking them to win outright this weekend. Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 – Broncos 17.
The 49ers are on fire right now and they should play all of their starters against the Raiders since they could still win the 2 seed in the AFC. Vegas just benched Derek Carr seemingly out of nowhere and will be starting Jarrett Stidham who has barely played in the NFL. Only taking the 49ers Moneyline to be safe since we don’t have much data on Stidham, Davante Adams is still Davante Adams and Vegas isn’t a fun place to play away but I’m confident that Purdy keeps it rolling in Week 17. Score Prediction: 49ers 24 – Raiders 17.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers – Sunday, 1/1 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Aaron Jones Total Rushing Yards Under 60.5 (-110) (1 unit)
If you’re a fantasy football manager with Aaron Jones on your roster this week, I’m truly sorry for you (trust me… he’s my RB2 in our league championship game this week and my RB1 is usually Derrick Henry… pain). As I’m sure you’re well aware, Jones has been dealing with a carousel of different injuries for half of the season this year and he enters this Week 17 matchup against the Vikings with both knee and ankle injuries. AJ Dillon has taken over the main ground role over the past few weeks due to Jones’ limited status as of late and I don’t see that changing this week considering Jones was almost ruled out entirely and was only a limited participant in practice all week. We saw Matt LaFleur take his conservative approach towards Jones’ health to an entirely new level last week, capping his carries to only 6 resulting in only 25 rushing yards on the day. This line of 60.5 feels far too high considering Jones is probably worse off health wise this week compared to Week 16, he’s almost certainly going to face another cap on his production and AJ Dillon has handled the bulk of earlier down carries anyways. I’m straying away from any total receiving+rushing yard props as well as TD props for Jones since those can very easily be affected by luck and he has still been the Packer’s focal point regarding catching passes out of the backfield this season. For context, Jones has only cleared 60.5 rushing yards once in his last 5 games and has only averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game over that same span (an average that’s slightly skewed by a 90 yard performance in Week 15). Best of luck to all Aaron Jones fantasy owners this week but don’t expect him to win you your championship on the ground this Sunday. Prop Prediction: 46 yards.
***LIVE BET HALFTIME ADDITION***
Pick: Vikings +23.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Well it looks like the Aaron Jones prop is a miss but we still have a chance to salvage some value from this game. The Vikings are losing by 24 at the half, they need to win this game to have any prayer at obtaining the #1 seed and they staged the largest comeback in NFL history just two weeks ago. This halftime spread simply means that the Vikings have to eat into the current lead by just 1 point in order to cover which seems extremely attainable. Don’t forget, the Packers scored 14 points in the first half off a kick return and a pick six… HAMMER THIS NUMBER.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals – Monday, 1/2 (8:30 PM EST)
Pick: 5 Way Parlay: Bengals +14.5, Total Points Over 39.5, Josh Allen 25+ Rush Yards, Josh Allen 200+ Pass Yards, Joe Burrow 200+ Pass Yards (-102) (1 unit)
Ok… So while I wouldn’t consider this parlay our typical “bet smarter, not harder” type of bet, it does feel pretty automatic *knock on wood*. This game should be an absolute barn burner and one that could define the #1 seed in the AFC. Every model I’ve run has this game being decided by less than one score so the Bengals keeping this within two TDs feels obvious, the total points over on 39.5 not only covers the magic number of 41 but is significantly below both of these teams’ season averages as well as averages over the last 5 games, Josh Allen averages just shy of 50 rushing yards per game (and he’s covered at least 25 rushing yards in all but two games this season) and it’s hard to imagine two elite NFL QBs falling short of 200 passing yards in any game. I’m not usually one to take a parlay past 2-3 legs but this same game parlay option is mighty enticing especially considering the fact that Burrow gets the Bills at home so this should be a battle from start to finish. Should be fun to watch! Predictions: Bills 24 – Bengals 20, Josh Allen 46 Rushing Yards & 265 Passing Yards, Joe Burrow 287 Passing Yards.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 16: 33-34-1 Overall, -2.21 Units Total)
Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans/Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs/San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders/New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: 4 Team Parlay: Cowboys Moneyline, Chiefs Moneyline, 49ers Moneyline, Eagles Moneyline (+112) (1 unit)
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 1/1 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Bears +5.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday, 1/1 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Ravens -1.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Indianapolis Colts @ NY Giants – Sunday, 1/1 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Giants -5.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Disclaimer: SidehustlebetsMJQ.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.