CFB Bowl Week 1 (Through 12/19)

Bowl season is here and the boys are hitting at a 54.41% clip at the moment (37-31) putting us just under +5 units on the year so far. Obviously there’s quite a few games to choose from this postseason so we’ll be sending out our favorite bowl picks on a weekly basis in order to combat late opt outs, injuries, etc. Don’t forget, there’s probably more bowl games out there then there should be… Don’t bet on games simply because they’re being played. Pinpoint the value, don’t get greedy and finish strong with us this postseason. Get your superstitions in line and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (Since Week 14: 14-13 Overall, +1.892 Units)

Cincinnati vs Louisville – Saturday, 12/17 (11:00 AM EST)
Pick: Cincinnati Moneyline (+115) (1 unit)

This play is simply stemming from massive turnover on Louisville’s side. While Cincinnati also just lost their head coach Luke Fickell, Fickell’s replacement at Cincinnati will be Scott Satterfield… Louisville’s head coach this past season. Louisville will also be without Malik Cunningham (their starting QB over the past few years) and several rotational RBs and LBs to the transfer portal. Louisville’s backup QB (Brock Domann) is not very good and Cincinnati’s defense shouldn’t have too many issues if they’re able to contain the run since Domann isn’t the guy to beat you. While Cincinnati also lost a lot of depth to the transfer portal, I have a lot more faith in the senior leadership they did retain for the bowl game including their starting RB Charles McClelland. I’d be nervous about a revenge game out of Louisville if they weren’t playing with so many backups but I’m going to side with Cincy in this one given the team’s maturity and apparent desire to finish the season strong under interim head coach Kerry Coombs. Just a reminder, this is actually an old rivalry that could very easily come back to life this weekend considering the narratives here (Scott Satterfield essentially abandoned Louisville for Cincy to avoid being in the hot seat next season… I highly doubt he doesn’t help Coombs prepare for this matchup given his insider knowledge of the team and desire to quiet all the noise he’s getting for making the career move). Score Prediction: Cincinnati 24 – Louisville 20.

Rice vs Southern Mississippi – Saturday, 12/17 (5:45 PM EST)
Pick: Southern Miss -6 (-110) (1 unit)

Southern Miss and Rice were basically polar opposites in how they finished their regular seasons this year (Southern Miss covered 4 of their last 5 games and Rice dropped 4 of their last 5 games). Southern Miss will win this game because of their absolutely filthy defense, plain and simple. Rice has struggled on offense all season and Southern Miss should embarrass them defensively on the ground as well as through the air. Southern Miss’ offense has been good enough to make it to bowl season which shouldn’t be a huge issue considering Rice’s defense is also terrible. Banking on the Golden Eagles to keep it rolling in this one and for Rice to continue to struggle on both sides of the ball. It’s also worth mentioning that Southern Miss has won 2 out of the 3 bowl games they’ve played in Mobile, AL, they’ll have a slight home field advantage without a doubt, they’ll be playing for a winning season and it’s unclear who Rice’s QB will even be on Saturday. Score Prediction: Southern Miss 27 – Rice 17.

Washington State vs Fresno State – Saturday, 12/17 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: 2 Way Parlay: Fresno State Moneyline, Game Total Under 60.5 Points (+130) (0.8 units)

Love this spot for both Fresno State as well as the under this week. Fresno State is coming off a conference championship, they have a great secondary and they’re basically playing a home game at SoFi Stadium (with a team full of players mostly from CA). Washington State was decimated by the transfer portal and they also just lost their Defensive Coordinator. Both QBs will face stingy secondaries, Fresno State likes to play slowly (against a Washington State defense that just lost three of it’s best tacklers), Fresno will be playing for a 10 win season and Fresno’s QB Jake Haener has been electric since returning from injury. Washington State should be out of sorts without their DC, they’ll face a defense built to stifle their main scheme (passing game) and Fresno will surely have the motivational advantage given the location of the game. This game will feature two pass heavy offenses, facing solid opposing secondaries and subpar running games on both sides… Can you say “under”? Scoring Prediction: Fresno State 28 – Washington State 20.

DPJ’s Best Bets (Since Week 14: 23-18 Overall, +3.067 Units)

Florida vs Oregon State/North Texas vs Boise State/Marshall vs UConn
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Oregon State Moneyline, Boise State Moneyline, Marshall Moneyline (+105) (1 unit)

I’m diving into bowl season head first with a three-way moneyline parlay. All three of these teams are favored by 10+ points so you could probably argue that this is more of a pencil dive then a head first dive, but I digress.

Oregon State gets an SEC matchup with Florida in Sin City. The Gators season started and ended with a big win at home over Utah to open the season. They then fumbled through the SEC with tough losses to Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and were bad down the stretch finishing with two wins in their last six. I don’t expect Florida to come into this game with much fire. For a respectable program like Florida, the Las Vegas Bowl can’t mean much. Star QB Anthony Richardson has opted out for the Gators which should be the nail in the coffin. Oregon State is quite the opposite. They have a tough defense and finished their season winning six of their last seven, culminating with a win at home over rival Oregon. The Beavers have never sniffed the college football playoff or a new year’s six bowl bowl game so they should come out looking to punish the gators in Vegas. Score Prediction: OSU 30 – Florida – 23.

Boise State heads to Frisco, TX for a match up with Conference USA runner up North Texas. The Mean Green will be playing with an interim coach as they fired Seth Littrell on Dec 2nd which should be troublesome against a pretty damn good Boise State team. The Broncos are a much different look than previous years where we have seen high powered offenses thrive in Boise. BSU comes in with a rock solid defense, allowing the 13th fewest yards per game and are particularly stout against the pass. I expect them to shut down the Mean Green offense and this one should be snooze fest. Score Prediction: Boise State 31 – North Texas 16.

Marshall gets UConn in the Myrtle Beach Bowl which should be a nice little mid-winter beach vacation for both teams. The Huskies love to run the ball but Marshall comes in with one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 88 yards per game (5th in FCS). I think Marshall controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and holds on for a victory in a low scoring game. Score Prediction: Marshall 20 – UConn 13.

Washington State vs Fresno State – Saturday, 12/17 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: Washington State +4 (-110) (1 unit)

Mike Leach left Pullman, WA for Starkville, MS but i’d like to think his heart and soul are still with this Cougars program. With the tragic news over the weekend that Leach has passed away, I think that could give some good juju to this Cougars team to not only cover the spread but maybe even beat Fresno State at Sofi stadium. Fresno has feasted on the Mountain West this year but they got beat by the two Pac12 opponents they faced in ‘22 (USC and Oregon State) and I’d expect them to have some trouble with the Cougars. It’s tough to bet against a team that won their last 8 games but when you’re playing the likes of Hawaii, UNLV and Nevada, that seemingly impressive resume loses some luster. I think Wazzu keeps this one close and it will come down to the final couple possessions, in which case I like to sit on the +4. Score Prediction: Washington State 27 – Fresno State 26.

SMU vs BYU – Saturday, 12/17 (7:30 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 64 (-110) (1 unit)

This one is certainly not rocket science. Both these offenses are dominant, and both offenses stink, so i’m taking the over. Neither team has to travel far as each is just a state away from the great state of New Mexico and the glorious city of Albuquerque. It will be fairly cold, with weather projected to be in the low 40s, but minimal wind and no precipitation on the forecast should keep these offenses humming. BYU seems to always get up for bowl games, as they’ve either lost closely or won comfortably under head coach Kilani Sitake. SMU can throw the ball impressively well as they finished the season 10th in passing yards per game and are 13th in points scored. I anticipate even more points than Vegas is calling for here and think we get a crazy shootout. Score Prediction: BYU 41 – SMU 34.

North Texas vs Boise State – Saturday, 12/17 (9:15 PM EST)
Pick: North Texas Team Total Points Under 23.5 (EVEN) (0.5 units)

I already wrote about this one in my moneyline parlay but I’m adding the North Texas Team Total under 23.5 to my card. An interim coach against this Boise State defense should be a big uphill battle for the Mean Green that I don’t expect to end well for North Texas. Should be no problem keeping them under 24 points if Boise holds in the red zone. Score Prediction: Boise State 31 – North Texas 16.

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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