NFL Week 15 Bets

Ho Ho Ho…Christmas appears to have come early at MJQ headquarters. We’ve launched a full fledged assault on bookmakers in the last four weeks to the tune of +7.62 units. Q cashed a couple juicy parlays in Week 14 and I stayed hot going 3-1 which gives me 12 wins in my last 16 picks *fire emoji* *fire emoji* *fire emoji*. While we are patting ourselves on the back and enjoying this as much as possible it is paramount that we stay focused on the task at hand and continue to deliver winners. If you can cash a couple winning slips this weekend you’re in a good spot to pay off that credit card bill that tends to look larger than usual at this time of year. There are just four weeks left in the NFL season so let’s enjoy these games while we still can.

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 14: 27-29-1 Overall, -3.06 Units Total)

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills/Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears/Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans/NY Giants @ Washington Commanders
Pick: 4 Team Parlay: Bills Moneyline, Eagles Moneyline, Chiefs Moneyline, Commanders Moneyline (+157) (0.7 units)

I’ve hit my last two moneyline parlays with a similar format to this one so I will continue to ride this wagon into week 15. The concept remains the same, we’re sitting on three of the best teams in the NFL (BUF/KC/PHI) to win along with the plucky Commanders who are in top form and get a matchup at home against the struggling Giants. Here is each matchup in three sentences or less.

We’re blessed with another lake effect snow game in Buffalo and this one looks like it’s not going to move to Indy. Despite Tua saying it snows in Alabama, it certainly doesn’t snow like it does in Buffalo so I’m expecting the Dolphins struggles to continue, especially with this weather. Buffalo’s defense is heating up at the right time and I’d expect this one to look similar to last week’s matchup with the Jets. Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Dolphins 17.

This matchup doesn’t even deserve three sentences so here we go. The Chiefs are very good. The Texans are very bad. Score Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Texans 13

The Eagles head to Chi town for another cold weather game that will most likely result in a blowout. Philly’s offense is primed to dominate teams in the cold as they can run it down your throat and have a top 5 defense. We might see some points in this one from both sides but I don’t expect it to be particularly close. Score Prediction: Eagles 34 – Bears 24.

We wrap up the ML parlay with the Commanders at home on Sunday Night Football. These teams have the same record but they are in opposite form, with the Giants reeling and the Commies looking to bolster their position in the NFC playoff race. Covering 4.5 points might be tough for this WAS offense but they should at least be walking home with a W in their pocket. Score Prediction: Commanders 20 – Giants 17.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills – Saturday, 12/17 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Bills -7 (-110) (1 unit)

Giving seven points to an 8-5 team might seem crazy on its face but it makes a ton of sense when you think about where these two teams are at this point in the season. Tua and the Dolphins have been completely undressed in the last two weeks as defenses have realized you can simply beat them by pressing their receivers in 1:1 coverage. The Chargers (whose entire defense is hurt) did this to perfection last week and forced Tua into one of the worst games of his career, limiting him to 145 yards, 68 of which came on one blown coverage where the DB slipped. Well guess what, things aren’t going to get any easier this week as the Dolphins get an absolutely brutal matchup with the Bills in snowy Buffalo. The only thing that will stand between this bet cashing is a garbage time back door covering TD at the end of the game. I have very minimal concerns, the Dolphins are soft. Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Dolphins 17.

Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, 12/18 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Jaguars +4.5 (-110) (1 unit)

The Jags are something like 0-20 straight up in their last 20 games against NFC opponents. As shocking as that may seem, it is indeed true. I’ll throw an even more impressive stat at you, the Cowboys have never won a single game in Jacksonville. They are 0-1 with that L coming in a 2006 matchup that featured Drew Bledsoe and Byron Leftwhich under center. The good thing is we don’t need the Jags to win here we simply need them to cover which I think they are more than capable of doing. The Cowboys are very good but they are banged up which is why they almost lost to the Texans last week. Plus they are playing the Eagles next week so this is a big look ahead spot. DAL could clinch a playoff berth with a W here but I don’t think they’ll be playing with that type of urgency so they could come out a bit flat. Trevor Lawrence is rounding into form to wrap up his sophomore season and they absolutely have to win to have a shot at the AFC south. Score Prediction: Cowboys 23 – Jags 21.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Sunday, 12/18 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110) (1 unit)

For most of the year I’ve been fighting my internal monologue that Tom Brady is Tom Brady and eventually Tampa will figure it out and get hot. Luckily I’ve won that battle with my own brain (credit to me) and haven’t bet on the Bucs all season and they are dead last against the spread (3-9-1). Even better, they’re 0-1 as an underdog so they haven’t even proved they are a plucky underdog in that perfectly normal sample size of one game. Conversely, I think the Bengals have proven they deserve to be at the table with the other Super Bowl favorites and will continue their hot streak here in week 15. The Bengals are 7-3 against the spread as a favorite with three of those wins coming on the road. They are humming and I don’t see it slowing down here in Tampa. Score Prediction: Bengals 27 – Bucs 20.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns – Saturday, 12/17 (4:30 PM EST)
Pick: Ravens +3 (-110) (0.5 units) & Total Points Under 38.5 (-110) (0.5 units)

Simply put, this game should be absolutely disgusting. Tyler Huntley gets another start for Baltimore against the nasty man Deshaun Watson. The only thing the Browns have been able to do all year is run the ball and the Ravens come in with one of the best run defenses in the league (2nd in yards allowed). The Ravens are also only capable of running the ball and the Browns happen to have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. It was expected that Deshaun would have some rust as he works his way back into the league but he looks completely lost and this is not the cupcake matchup he needs to find his rhythm. It’s going to be cold and windy in Cleveland on Saturday which should naturally suppress the scoring but I think if these two teams were playing in a dome it wouldn’t look a whole lot different. It should be a rock fight with plenty of slow drives and low scoring in which case I like the Ravens at +3 along with under 38.5 so I’m splitting this bet in half.  Here are some fun Brown’s stats from the desk of Warren Sharp who has an incredible mustache: the Stefanski-led Browns are 11-20 ATS at home (2nd worst in NFL), 3-8 ATS vs AFC North, and 1-4 outright ATS vs Baltimore. Woof! Score Prediction: Ravens 20 – Browns 13.

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 14: 17-26 Overall, -5.943 Units Total)

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills/Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Bills Moneyline, Chiefs -7 (-115) (1 unit)

The Bills and Chiefs would both clinch the playoffs with a win this week. 

The Dolphins should have their hands full on Saturday. They’re banged up, they’re coming off two losses in a row (both of which were also on the road), they have to go play the Super Bowl contender Bills who haven’t lost a game in over a month and the weather is expected to be freezing/snowing… Miami has lost their last 8 games when playing in freezing temperatures… The Bills will likely contain the Dolphin’s run game and best of luck surviving on explosive passing plays in the snow (which is exactly what Miami has relied on all season). This is one snowball fight that the Dolphins will want to forget about. Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Dolphins 17.

With the recent announcement that Dameon Pierce will be out for this Chiefs game it’s hard to think Houston stands a chance (hence the line sitting at 2 TDs currently). While I definitely think the Chiefs could cover 14 points, it just feels safer to avoid the back door cover and take the alternate spread of just -7. The Texans are missing their three best players for this matchup (Brandin Cooks, Dameon Pierce, Derek Stingley Jr.) and Davis Mills has played so poorly lately that they benched him for Jeff Driskel at one point… who also sucked so now Mills is back under center. There’s definitely areas of this Kansas City defense that are vulnerable but the Texans are nearly good enough to expose them. Mahomes and the Chiefs cruise to another division title on Sunday. Score Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Texans 20.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Bengals Moneyline, Eagles Moneyline (-110) (1 unit)

It honestly feels like we’re still getting some inflated value on the Bucs somehow because of Brady’s comeback win two weeks ago, despite the Bucs getting absolutely thrashed by the 49ers last week 35-7. Who am I to complain? The fact that the Bengals are only 3.5 point favorites in this matchup is wild to me. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd should both be healthy for this game (Ja’Marr Chase has BEEN healthy), the Bengals run game has gained new life between the duo of Mixon/Perine and the Bucs are banged up on both sides of the ball (Tom Brady has a thumb injury, multiple players have been missing games in the secondary and Vito Vea was just ruled out). This line implies that these two teams would be close to even on a neutral field which is simply untrue.. Who Dey? Score Prediction: Bengals 24 – Bucs 20.

The Eagles are very much in the hunt for a first round bye in the playoffs and the Bears became the first team of the year to be eliminated from the playoff hunt last week. While I do think this game will end up being a low scoring affair due to liabilities in the run game for both defenses, Philly just has too many weapons on offense not to pull away at some point. Sorry Justin Fields, can’t do it all yourself in the NFL (especially against a Super Bowl favorite). Score Prediction: Eagles 28 – Bears 20.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers – Sunday, 12/18 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Steelers +7.5, Total Points Under 44.5 (-110) (1 unit)

Apologies to Panther nation, but I smell an upset on Sunday… The Steelers defense is an absolute pill to play against with TJ Watt in the lineup and Sam Darnold is simply not the answer. The Panthers have struggled against teams that are solid at defending the run (which the Steelers are) and it’s been painful to watch their passing game all season regardless of QB (all 12 of them). The Steelers are likely to have some issues moving the ball as well against Carolina’s solid defense on both levels but I like Trubisky to at least keep this one within a TD in a game that will probably only have a couple of TDs in total. Expect a snooze fest on Sunday that likely results in disappointment for Carolina late. Score Prediction: Steelers 20 – Panthers 17.

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos/Tennessee Titans @ LA Chargers
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Cardinals/Broncos Total Points Under 43, Titans/Chargers Total Points Over 40 (-110) (1 unit)

The Battle of the Backups will take place in Denver this week as Colt McCoy faces off against Brett Rypien. Denver’s offense is terrible healthy, I can’t even imagine how bad they’ll look with Brett Rypien under center (who won’t have Courtland Sutton to throw to this week)… Both teams are likely to lean on their run game offensively which should be met with quite a bit of resistance by the opposing run defense. What does this mean? Very slow pace of play resulting in low scoring. Score Prediction: Cardinals 20 – Broncos 17.

We finally got to see the full strength Chargers offense last week and they looked electric. The Titans enter this matchup absolutely starving for a victory (they’ve dropped their last 3 games in a row), Derrick Henry should have a ton of success on the ground against a porous Chargers run defense that’s missing Joey Bosa and playing the Chargers in LA is basically like playing a neutral site game (yes Chargers fans, that is a direct assault on your fan base). The Chargers enter this matchup looking like a brand new offense ready to put the league on notice. The Titans should give them that opportunity considering they have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. So, what do you get when you combine a team that runs the ball with King Henry every other play against a defense that can’t stop the run? Points. What do you get when you combine one of the best passing offenses in the NFL (which is finally healthy for the first time all year) against arguably the worst team at defending the pass? Even more points. Points, points, points. Score Prediction: Chargers 27 – Titans 24.

***LIVE BETTING ADDITION*** Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Vikings -6.5 2H (-110) (1 unit)

Everyone is shocked by this 33-0 total at half but don’t get it twisted, the Vikings will make at least somewhat of an attempt at a comeback. 14 points of that total are tied to defensive TDs by the Colts which is statistically unsustainable. Back the Vikings to win the 2nd half at home by at least a TD with confidence.

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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