NFL Week 14 Bets

Given how atrocious my NFL bets have been over the past couple of weeks, please direct your attention to our in house hot hand… DPJ (aka Duck Poop Jake; aka Jackpot Jake; aka The Moneyline Mongrel; aka The Prince of Parlay). DPJ is now 9-3 since Week 11 for +5.13 units… talk about keeping the boys afloat during trying times. In DPJ we (and you) should trust, I’ll right this ship if it’s the last thing I do and per usual… always remember to be smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 13: 14-24 Overall, -8.593 Units Total)

NY Jets @ Buffalo Bills/Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Giants/Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Jets +17.5, Eagles Moneyline, Chiefs -2.5 (+145) (1 unit)

3 way parlay this week so I’ll keep these brief.

Mike White might just be the truth. The Jets defense is playing fantastic right now, White gives this offense the jolt they need to actually utilize the WR talent they have and Zonovan Knight has stepped up nicely for the Jets backfield (a backfield that should get Michael Carter back this week as well). Don’t be surprised to see this final score finish within 1 score in what should be a low scoring affair. Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Jets 17.

The Eagles are great and the Giants are massive frauds (who might not even have Saquon Barkley on Sunday). The Eagles should run all over this horrid Giants defense and the really the only potential Achilles Heel for Philly’s D would be the Giants run game (which, again, is non-existent without Saquon). Banking on Barkley to play banged up at the very least and for the Eagles to move the ball on the ground at will (which should open up the deep shots for AJ Brown and Devonta Smith). Eagles keep flying high on Sunday. Score Prediction: Eagles 31 – Giants 20.

I mean… is there really much to say here about this Chiefs/Broncos matchup?? Russell Wilson has a very good chance of finishing this season with more bathrooms in his house (12) than pass TDs (8), the Broncos can’t move the ball in general really after Javonte Williams went down and the Chiefs are coming off a tough loss to the Bengals/are obviously heavily in the playoff push. Denver’s defense might push the under in this one in regards to the total but it’s hard to imagine a world in which the Chiefs don’t beat this Broncos team by at least a field goal. Score Prediction: Chiefs 24 – Broncos 13.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals/Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Bengals Moneyline, Seahawks Moneyline (+125) (1 unit)

Cleveland might own this matchup lately but I sense a changing of the guard type scenario without a doubt. Not only is Cincy a different team when Ja’Marr is healthy, but their defense is finally close to full strength and the team overall looks playoff ready. Cleveland, on the other hand, appears to be viewing the rest of this season almost like an extended preseason for next year regarding Deshaun Watson joining the roster last week. He clearly isn’t comfortable with the new offense yet and it can’t help that he’s aggressively booed by opposing fans literally anytime he steps on the field. Another factor to consider is the Bengals offensive line. Burrow has struggled against elite pass rush this season (the offseason O Line additions haven’t been very effective thus far), but the Browns struggle against the run so a mixed bag regarding game scheme should allow Burrow to operate freely throughout the game for the most part. Score Prediction: Bengals 27 – Browns 24.

This Seahawks pick is relatively straightforward. Seattle’s offense is better than the Carolina’s defense on every level, the Seahawks are very much still in the playoff race, Seattle is by far one of the toughest away stadiums to play in for away squads and the Panthers have had one foot out the door since dishing McCaffrey to San Francisco a few weeks ago. The Seahawks absolutely should win this game and the Panthers need to learn how to tank better (coming from a Panthers season ticket holder). Score Prediction: Seahawks 24 – Panthers 17.

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals – Monday, 12/12 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Patriots -1 (-105) (1 unit) ***LATE ADDITION PARLAY*** Prop Parlay: Kyler Murray 25+ Rushing Yards/Hunter Henry Over 2.5 Receptions/Hunter Henry 25+ Receiving Yards (+300) (0.5 units)

This is one of those Billy B statistical heat checks that simply cannot go unnoticed. Belichick after a loss is absolutely formidable (~80% ATS after a loss in his career and 75% ATS after a loss this season). While I love Hard Knocks, Kliff Kingsbury’s bunch is less than convincing as far as a late season playoff push right now with all of the injuries and realistically they seem to be falling into their typical pattern of falling off right around the holiday season. Kyler won’t be 100%, the Pats defense is absolutely filthy at every level and Belichick hasn’t called a game since last Thursday… Expect frustration for the Cards and a boring but expected Billy B bounce back on Monday. Score Prediction: Patriots 24 – Cardinals 20.

***LATE ADDITION PARLAY*** Call me crazy, but this prop parlay feels like a can’t miss as we near kickoff on this beautiful Monday evening. The Cardinals have allowed the most receiving yards to TEs in the league this year and Kyler has gone back to his roots as far as running the pigskin as of late. But the Pats defense is so good right? Why would I possibly risk a “can’t miss parlay” leg on shorting New England’s D? Well, that’s because they haven’t been great at stopping QB runs this year specifically… they’ve actually only been average at best in that regard, ranking dead center of the league in QB rush yards allowed on the year. Expect Hunter Henry to have a game in this juicy matchup and for Kyler to scatter all around the field all night (designed run and/or scrambling). To be clear, both of these players should blow away these totals tonight.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 12/11 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Prop Parlay: TJ Hockenson Receptions Over 4.5/TJ Hockenson 40+ Receiving Yards (+175) (1 unit)

Love this spot for TJ Hockenson in Week 14. Not only is he returning to Detroit for the first time since being traded to Minnesota right before the trade deadline, but the Lions still have arguably the worst pass defense in the league. Detroit’s offense is relatively healthy all of the sudden and the Vikings rarely blow teams out so I expect Cousins to air it out early and often in this early slate matchup in Detroit. Keep in mind, Hockenson has practiced against this secondary for quite awhile (former team)… Hockenson is currently averaging 6 recs/game and 45 rec yards/game since joining the Vikings at the beginning of November. Don’t be surprised to see him put up highlight reel numbers on Sunday. Prop Predictions: 6 Receptions, 66 Receiving Yards.

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 13: 24-28-1 Overall, -4.88 Units Total)

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 12/11 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 51 (-110) (1 unit)

It is taking every ounce of strength in my body to not bet the Lions -1.5 in this game against the Vikings on Sunday. The reality is Kirk Cousins has turned the Vikings into grim reapers and they seem to weasel away with a win in every single close game. I’m not going to bet on that trend ending this week, instead I’m going to lay a unit on the over as this game should undoubtedly turn into a shoot out. The Lions offense is sexy as hell, they’re top 10 in both yards and points and seem to be getting better every week. Minnesota’s offense is equally dynamic as they are 10th in points and top 10 in pass yards. Best of all, these defenses both stink. Minny is 32nd (last) in yards allowed and Detroit is 31st (second to last) in yards allowed. Both of these teams should have no trouble moving the ball from start to finish on Sunday. Yeah, 51 is a lot of points but that will be no problem for known gunslingers Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins. Score Prediction: Vikings 27 – Lions 31.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos – Sunday, 12/11 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 44 (-110) (1 unit)

I am now a scorching hot 3 for my last 5 on under picks. That type of win percentage is simply unheard of for professional gamblers like myself (Friendly reminder that is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only). I have vowed to bet the Broncos under every week until the streak breaks and I am ready for war with Patrick Mahomes in week 14. Yes, the Chiefs have the best offense in football (I prefer the Lions, see above pick) but this Denver defense is a monster and Mr. Unlimited is the worst QB in the NFL (more like Mr. Limited, in my opinion). The only threat to this game going over 45 points is the Chiefs winning something like 42 – 3. I have zero fear in the Broncos cracking 20 points, they might not even crack double digits. Score Prediction: Chiefs 40 – Broncos 3.

NY Jets @ Buffalo Bills – Sunday, 12/11 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Jets +10 (-110) (1 unit)

The Bills got back on track last week with a drubbing of the New England Patriots. The Pats continue to employ a former defensive coordinator with zero offensive coaching experience which is a topic for another day. I think Mike White can do some damage against the Bills in week 14 after they damn near beat Buffalo back in early November with an inferior pretty boy QB in Zach Wilson. We might get some snow in Buffalo on Sunday which will make me even happier that I have a wager on a snow game. 10 points is a big number to cover against this frisky Jets team. I don’t expect them to win but I think they have the juice for a back door cover or best case scenario they keep it a one score game from start to finish. Score Prediction: Bills 23 – Jets 17.

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys/Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Giants/Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos/Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 4 Team Parlay: Cowboys Moneyline, Eagles Moneyline, Chiefs Moneyline, 49ers Moneyline (+167) (0.6 units)

Speaking of other impressive streaks, I’m now 1-0 on moneyline parlays since week 13. I will look to keep the streak alive in week 14 with three heavy favorites + Brock Purdy. I’m going to refrain from writing any words about the Cowboys who will blow out the Texans, the Eagles who will torch the Giants, and the Chiefs who I have already picked to beat the Broncos 40 – 3. The focus here is on Big Cock Brock and the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan is the shitty QB whisper, I have no stats to back it up but I feel like he constantly is dealing with some scrub under center. Brock Purdy looked shockingly poised last week and I think he’ll do it again at home against Tampa this week. More importantly, the Niners defense will have Brady in complete hell for the entire game so Brock won’t have to do much. Cumulative Score Prediction: DAL/PHI/KC/SF 106 – scrubby teams 65.

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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