This season of NFL betting has started to feel like ‘one step forward, two steps back’ for the lads here at Side Hustle Bets. Right when we piece together a solid week (+4 units in week 11) we get hit with a negative week (-1.5 units in week 12). With that being said, we will continue to build momentum as we get our feet underneath us with six weeks remaining until playoffs. We are officially 35-49-1 on the season, which if you’re a huge math guy like myself (I hate math) a regression to the mean is well overdue. Hop on board before it’s too late as we will surely find the hot hand here soon.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 12: 21-28-1 Overall, -7.74 Units Total)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 12/4 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 51 (-110) (1 unit)
There are some very fun and exciting games on the calendar this week, notably KC/CIN, MIA/SF and TEN/PHI. But this matchup between two bottom feeding franchises could sneakily turn out to be one of the most electric of the weekend. Both teams are top 10 in points scored and bottom of the league in yards allowed. The Lions in particular are 32nd in points against and 32nd in yards against…woof. Their defense has randomly shown up in spots this year but I loved what I saw from Trevor Lawrence last week and expect him to keep riding that high into Detroit in week 13. Deandre Swift is also completely off the injury report, we may see him finally unleashed again in what has become a true two-headed monster backfield with him and Jamaal Wiliams. Rooting for a shootout is always fun, let’s have some fun. Score Prediction: Jags 37 – Lions 32.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday, 12/4 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 39.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Don’t look now but I am absolutely red hot on my under picks. Going all the way back to week 11 I am 2 for 2. Impressive stuff. More importantly I’ve decided to take the under in every Broncos game until I am proven wrong. This Denver offense is so bad it should be illegal to put them on television. Every time the Broncos have the ball the TV broadcast should cut to highlights of Chiefs/Rams 2018, or Alabama/Tennessee 2022, or maybe even a couple rounds of Jeopardy. As much as it pains me to have Lamar in an under bet the Ravens offense has looked pretty inept in recent weeks. I might start floating the conspiracy that the Baltimore front office didn’t sign or trade for any good passing options for Lamar in an effort to deflate his passing stats and deflate his future contract value. It truly makes no sense that he’s throwing to Demarcus Robinson and Desean Jackson. I was a big Bateman guy but relying on a second year player who looked *okay* in his first year was quite a leap of faith. Score Prediction: Ravens 23 – Broncos 13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys/Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers/Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Cowboys Moneyline, 49ers Moneyline, Ravens Moneyline (+115) (0.9 units)
Before I get into the write up, I’d like to point out that I’m going with .9 units here so the payout is close to 1 unit when the parlay cashes. There will be no unit shaming at SHB headquarters, find a new slant.
The Cowboys and Ravens are both approx 10 point favorites so I’m going to turn my attention to the San Francisco 49ers. This Niners defense is an absolute force to be reckoned with and a big part of why I think they’ll come out of the NFC and probably lose to the Chiefs in the Superbowl again. They haven’t allowed a point in six straight quarters (yes the QBs may have been Andy Dalton and a Call of Duty addict who remains nameless) and they are doing it in flashy style, getting maximum pressure and forcing turnovers. There is no doubt in my mind that DC DeMeco Ryans will be a head coach next year. This game is also a homecoming from Mike McDaniel who has the Dolphins primed to make a deep playoff run of their own. I anticipate this to be a big wake up call for the Phins, they haven’t played a team like SF all year and this team will simply make you uncomfortable in all sorts of ways. Not only the defense, but the run game comes at you from all angles, bleeding clock and draining every ounce of momentum. I think Shanahan will have his former underling’s number in this one and the Niners will pull out a W. Score Predictions: Cowboys 30 – Colts 17, Niners 27 – Dolphins 24, Ravens 23 – Broncos 13.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 12: 14-21 Overall, -6.093 Units Total)
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens/Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Ravens -2.5, Dolphins +7.5 (+105) (1 unit)
Hard not to bet against the Broncos at this point. Lamar and Gus Edwards should be good to go, the Broncos are trash as long as Russ is “cookin” and Baltimore is coming off a tough loss. All signs lead to a Ravens bounce back. Don’t be surprised to see a Ravens blowout. Score Prediction: Ravens 27 – Broncos 17.
Here’s a crazy stat… Tua is 14-1 in games that he started and finished to completion… who would’ve thunk it right…? Turns out the Dolphins are quite good when fully healthy and it feels like the 49ers are massively overrated right now. Neither team has a great secondary and both tout solid run defenses but the clear difference comes under center. Jimmy G isn’t “the guy” and Tua at the very least hasn’t been eliminated from that conversation. When you combine the best WR group in the NFL with a QB who won a college natty off the bench as a true freshman and a coach that inspires, you get a cover in San Fran. Score Prediction: 49ers 23 – Dolphins 20.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, 12/4 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Diontae Johnson Anytime TD Scorer (+250) (0.5 units)
Diontae Johnson is near the top of the league in targets and hasn’t found the end zone once all season. Some things are only a matter of time and the Falcons’ secondary is utter trash… It feels like this week is the week for DJ to finally find pay dirt. Limiting the unit to 0.5 due to Pickett being under center but don’t get it twisted… this is probably my favorite bet of the week.
Seattle Seahawks @ LA Rams – Sunday, 12/4 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-125) (1 unit)
Love this spot for Kyren Williams with Wolford at QB. I’m expecting the Seahawks to control the tempo in this one and the Rams should be playing from behind most of the game. Given Wolford’s lack of experience (and likely confidence) I’m banking on a ton of dump off passes to the new leader in the Rams backfield on Sunday. Receiving Yards Prediction: 22 Yards.
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