Man, leave it to Ohio State to blow a perfect week for the boys last week at home… That said, SHB went 3-1 for +1.79 units last week moving our season total to 33-29 for +3.252 units. We’re locked in and ready for some championship football, get right or get left. Enjoy watching the CFP unfold, expect chaos and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (Since Week 13: 13-12 Overall, +1.982 Units)
Utah vs USC – Friday, 12/2 (8:00 PM EST)
Pick: USC -1 (-125) (1 unit)
So many factors go against Utah and for Southern Cal in this rematch. First off, it’s extremely hard to beat the same team twice in the same season… especially when the first game was basically a toss up. Expect USC to make the necessary adjustments in that regard. Second, Utah just lost their starting RB for the year after (Tavion Thomas decided to opt out of the rest of the season last week to prepare for the NFL draft). It’s going to be very hard for the Utes to fill his shoes in the backfield. Last but most certainly not least, Caleb Williams is playing like a Heisman QB (and he probably will be after this week). If Williams balls out this weekend the Heisman is his and the Trojans will be a tough out in the CFP given the momentum they have going right now. Expect Caleb Williams to continue to do Caleb Williams things Friday and catapult the Trojans into their first college football postseason. Score Prediction: USC 38 – Utah 31.
Kansas State vs TCU/LSU vs Georgia/Purdue vs Michigan
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Kansas State +14.5, Georgia -6.5, Michigan -6.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Little conference championship parlay action for you this weekend.
Outside of last week, it’s felt like TCU has been trying to drop a game for awhile now. Rarely does the CFP ever shake out exactly how we expect heading into week 14 and TCU feels like an ideal candidate to drop the ball against K State this weekend and shake things up across college football. Kansas State is flying heavily under the radar right now, Deuce Vaughn should have a day and Kansas State’s defense is pretty balanced. As long as K State can keep Duggan in check then there’s a great chance they win this one outright. Score Prediction ***UPSET ALERT***: Kansas State 33 – TCU 31.
Georgia sleepwalked through their “rivalry” game vs Georgia Tech last week but best believe that will be out of their system this weekend. The Bulldogs are gearing up for another run at the title and that push starts this weekend against a disappointed LSU squad who probably wouldn’t make the CFP even if they did pull off the upset against Georgia. Georgia is better at every level, Brian Kelly tends to get stomped in these types of games and Stetson Bennett is playing with a ton of swagger right now. Bulldogs easily cover by a TD. Score Prediction: Georgia 34 – LSU 20.
Well last week happened… I don’t think a soul predicted Michigan to actually look even better without Blake Corum (out for the season) but JJ McCarthy looked electric. The Wolverines passing game came to life in Columbus last week torching the Buckeyes for 278 yards and 3 TDs through the air. Oh, and Michigan’s backup RB (Donovan Edwards) RAN FOR 216 YARDS AND 2 TDS. This Wolverines squad is far deeper than originally thought and Purdue simply doesn’t stand a chance. Expect another high scoring affair from Michigan this weekend against an inferior Boilermakers team. Score Prediction: Michigan 34 – Purdue 17.
DPJ’s Best Bets (Since Week 13: 20-17 Overall, 1.27 Units)
Utah vs USC – Friday, 12/2 (8:00 PM EST)
Pick: USC -2.5 (-110) (0.5 units) & Caleb Williams TD Passes Over 2.5 (-115) (0.5 units)
This one could probably fall into the same game parlay category but I’m gonna keep them separate, with USC covering the 2.5 points to cash half a unit and Caleb Williams throwing 3+ TDs to cash another half unit. USC is playing as well as anyone in the country right now and Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley are ready to take USC to the CFP for the first time. The Utah fans will most likely travel well but I expect there to be a heavy USC presence in Vegas on Friday night. Vegas is a short four hour drive across the desert from LA, or for the wealthy student body and alumni a short 45 mins on a private jet. Plus I’m sure those same wealthy folks will be happy to blow some cash in Vegas for the weekend after a USC W. Lets not forget that USC would be undefeated if not for a late collapse at Utah in October. Utah’s pass defense has been beatable in spots this year and I expect Caleb Williams to once again exploit their secondary. It will feel great to cash this two-for-one bet on Friday night and head into Saturday up a unit. Score Prediction: USC 34 – Utah 27
TCU vs Kansas State – Saturday, 12/3 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 62 (-110) (1 unit)
TCUs offense has been electric this year, totalling 487 yards per game (19th) and 41 points per game (4th). Kansas State can also score the ball fairly well but I care about none of this and I am taking the under in what I think will end up being a sluggish first half. TCU is undoubtedly going to be feeling the pressure in this one and I will not be surprised at all if they come out a bit flat. The offense was beginning to look a bit worrisome against Texas and Baylor in mid-November until they ran into a cupcake matchup with Iowa State last week and hung 62 on them. I think teams are starting to figure this TCU team out a bit and it feels more than plausible that this could be a low scoring game at halftime. More than anything we need KSU to keep this a close game so there is no garbage time scoring or late game shenanigans at the end. The ideal game script is KSU controlling the line of scrimmage and time of position with their rock solid run game, bleeding the clock and slowing the pace from start to finish. Score Prediction: TCU 30 – KSU 27
UCF vs Tulane/Purdue vs Michigan/LSU vs Georgia
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Tulane Moneyline, Michigan Moneyline, Georgia Moneyline
Michigan and Georgia should be absolute locks to win their respective conference championships. They could both make the CFP even with a loss in these games but seeding is critical and I expect them to both steamroll Purdue and LSU. The truth of the matter is I tied them to Tulane here via moneyline parlay to get the line down from Tulane ML (-175) to this ML parlay (-105). Not all heroes wear capes.
No one is talking about the American Athletic Conference Championship Game because…well…who even gives a shit about the AAC. This should however be a fun game and these two teams duked it out on November 12th as UCF got out to an early lead and won 38-31. We all know how hard it is to beat a team twice in a calendar year, and the Green Wave (yes that is Tulane’s nickname, not to be confused with their mascot Riptide the Pelican) don’t have to travel far as they get a pseudo-home game in NoLA. This one kicks off at the same time as UGA and LSU so once the Bulldogs are up 3 scores at halftime you can simply flip the channel, put on your finest cajun accent, and become a Wave head. Score Predictions: Georgia by a lot, Michigan by a lot, Tulane 41 – UCF 35
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