To say we were due for a big NFL week would be a massive understatement but boy oh boy did we deliver in Week 11. DPJ and I combined to go 6-2 for +4.34 units on the week… SHARP. ACTION. This NFL party’s just getting started. Lucky for all of you, we still have 11 more weeks of professional football to go. Stay the course, best of luck inevitably dealing with your drunk uncle this weekend and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 11: 13-18 Overall, -3.963 Units Total)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks/Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Seahawks Moneyline, Broncos/Panthers Total Points Under 45.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Long story short, the Seahawks are actually good and the Broncos/Panthers are an unders dream.
The Raiders are barely a fraction of the team that their fan base hoped for during the preseason and they face the biggest surprise of the league in the Seattle Seahawks… in Seattle… one of the hardest places to play in the NFL. Geno Smith has already had a career year this season (which has allowed DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to remain factors), Kenneth Walker is clearly going to be a stud and Derek Carr can’t win games even with the best WR in the NFL to throw to (which he has done often). Taking advantage of the overreaction to both Seattle’s loss last week as well as the Raiders’ victory). Rolling with the healthy Seahawks coming off the bye vs the struggling disappointment of the league. Score Prediction: Seahawks 27 – Raiders 20.
This under couldn’t be more simple. Both defenses are pretty solid, both offenses are utter garbage. Russell Wilson can’t move the ball to save his life in his new hometown and the Panthers are playing the tank game utilizing a comical QB carousel that would make a fighter pilot dizzy. Denver’s defense should contain Carolina’s run game, which means Carolina will have virtually no offense. Carolina’s pass rush should cause problems for Russell Wilson in the pocket and Denver hasn’t had a run game since Javonte Williams went down months ago. Bank on a snooze fest this weekend in Charlotte. Score Prediction: Panthers 17 – Broncos 13.
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions/NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys/LA Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Bills -2.5, Giants +21.5, Chiefs -3 (-115) (1 unit)
The first two legs of this parlay are based on Thanksgiving trends. Specifically, the Cowboys and Lions both play terribly against the spread during Thanksgiving games. The Bills are one of the best teams in the league, they outmatch Detroit on both sides of the ball and they literally just played the Browns in the Lions stadium last week due to inclement weather in Buffalo. The Cowboys are on the rise but Dak still hasn’t seemed to fully find his footing and the Giants defense/team overall has found a way to stay in games all season to everyone’s bewilderment. The Bills might blow out the Lions (who haven’t won a Thanksgiving game since 2016) and the Giants should definitely be able to stay within 3 TDs of the Cowboys despite how banged up they are. The Rams are expected to start 3rd string QB Bryce Perkins on Sunday due to Stafford and Wolford’s injuries, but this was probably going to be a Chiefs blow out regardless of starter considering how awful the defending Super Bowl champs have been this season up to this point. They lost their heartbeat in Cooper Kupp (ankle injury), they haven’t established a run game all season and their defense was gutted in the offseason. Mahomes might not even play in the 4th quarter of this game given how much of a cake walk it should be for Kansas City on Sunday. Score Predictions: Bills 31 – Lions 20, Cowboys 27 – Giants 17, Chiefs 31 – Rams 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns/Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Buccaneers Moneyline, Texans/Dolphins Total Points Over 40.5 (+120) (1 unit)
I hate to say this but the Bucs are starting to right the ship and their cake schedule could set up Tom Brady for another hollow shot at the postseason… Rachaad White looks like the spark the Bucs needed in their run game and with Tampa’s WR group finally looking healthier they could pose some problems for a Browns team already planning for next week when Deshaun Watson takes over under center. Blame my pathetic NFC South for giving Tom Brady yet another opportunity he doesn’t deserve and count on Tampa’s solid defense to push them over the top in Cleveland on Sunday. Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24 – Browns 20.
I can’t not take an over on the Dolphins in the 40s at this point… The team can score and score fast. Miami comes off a bye from last week and Houston has seemingly thrown in the towel for the year. Not only could the Dolphins potentially cover this number themselves, but their average at best run defense should actually allow Dameon Pierce to eat which should allow the Texans to contribute to the over as well. Looks like Tua is good enough to service two of the best WRs in the NFL… who would’ve thunk it?? Score Prediction: Dolphins 34 – Texans 13.
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings – Thursday, 11/24 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 42.5 (-110) (1 unit)
This is only the second total all year for the Patriots in the 40s… That’s how good this Patriots defense is compared to how incapable its offensive unit is. Belichick takes pride in making sub par QBs have to beat him so I firmly expect him to limit the run and I consequently expect Kirk Cousins to struggle all game long in Thanksgiving prime time. For those of you who have forgotten, Kirk Cousins is literally the least clutch QB in football… Have no fear under, Kirk Cousins is here. Oh, and Minnesota’s head coach Kevin O’Connell is a former player of Belichick’s… Just feels too easy sometimes… Then we have the Pats offense to consider. New England only has 2 offensive TDs during the month of November. Let that stat sink in… Mac Jones isn’t exactly “electric”, the offense depends entirely on the run game to score points and the Pats defense is the only reason they’re over .500 on the year. Then there’s the Thanksgiving component. Unders have hit on Thanksgiving night at a staggering rate of 11-4, the last 7 in a row. Given how solid both defenses are, I won’t fight fate in this one. Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Vikings 17.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 11: 18-26-1 Overall, -8.32 Units Total)
THANKSGIVING TRIPLE DOG BETS
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions – Thursday, 11/24 (12:30 PM EST)
Pick: Lions +9.5 (-110) (0.5 units)
NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys – Thursday, 11/24 (4:30 PM EST)
Pick: Giants +10.5 (-110) (0.5 units)
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings – Thursday, 11/24 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Patriots +2.5 (-110) (0.5 units)
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers – Sunday, 11/27 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 36.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks/New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers/Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Seahawks Moneyline, 49ers Moneyline, Ravens Moneyline (+180) (0.75 units)
Disclaimer: SidehustlebetsMJQ.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.