Well we experienced a small regression back to the mean last week (due to some heartbreaking last minute bad beats) but don’t take that as our CFB heater cooling off by any means. Rivalry week provides us with the only factor we need in order to take advantage of Vegas… emotions. Everyone and their brother will be placing bets on their favorite teams to beat their hated rivals this week regardless of whether the logic is there or not. Bank the Brinks truck up… it’s time for another big week for the boys. Best of luck to your alma mater, don’t take stupid bets just to prove your fandom and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (Since Week 12: 12-11 Overall, +1.932 Units)
Michigan @ Ohio State/South Carolina @ Clemson
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Ohio State Moneyline, USC/Clemson Total Points Over 44.5 (-105) (1 unit)
Little rivalry parlay action for you this Thanksgiving weekend.
Michigan shocked the world last season when it upset Ohio State in the Big House for the first time in a decade. This isn’t the same Michigan team and Ohio State has only gotten better. Not only will Michigan have to deal with the fact that most of Ohio State’s starting lineup played in their loss to the Wolverines last year (so they’ll be thirsty for some revenge) but they’ll also have to face that reality in the Horseshoe… by far one of the more difficult venues to play at for opposing teams in college football (not to mention during arguably the biggest rivalry game in college football). Both teams looked average at best last week but no real takeaways there considering the look ahead thought process was in full effect (which we predicted perfectly I might add). That said, Michigan RB Blake Corum picked up a slight knee injury in last week’s contest against Illinois… an injury that could absolutely spell doom for the Wolverines this weekend if he’s not 100%. Ohio State’s defense is filthy on every level and Michigan’s strength on offense is definitely the run game. If Corum can’t go or isn’t at full strength… things could get ugly for Michigan quickly. Ohio State’s pass rush will likely cause havoc in the back field for JJ McCarthy so if the run game is stifled or non-existent then this Ohio State offense will be hard to keep pace with. Michigan’s defense is also elite but it’s hard to say that any team in the country can cover Marvin Harrison Jr & Co with Heisman hopeful CJ Stroud slinging them the ball. Score Prediction: Ohio State 31 – Michigan 20.
For those of you unfamiliar with the Battle of the Palmetto State, it’s recently been a masterclass by Clemson on how to spank your little brother school year in year out (Clemson hasn’t lost this rivalry game since 2013). After the Gamecocks’ mind blowing blowout over the Tennessee Vols last week, this line has grown quite a bit cloudier. Clemson’s defense has not lived up to its typical standards this season and USC transfer QB Spencer Rattler is extremely talented (even though he’s a total head case). On paper, Clemson should blow this USC team out. The Tigers secondary is finally coming together, they still have arguably the most talented defensive front in college football and they’ve actually been putting up points on offense this year despite Dabo’s indecision at the QB position (between DJ and Cade Klubnik). South Carolina has a decent pass game but overall the team’s been super volatile all season under Rattler. So why am I taking the over here vs the Tigers spread? Well that’s because Spencer Rattler was statistically the greatest high school QB ever at one point (3 high school national championships), he was a Heisman hopeful at one point (when starting at Oklahoma) and Clemson’s defense has underwhelmed all season long. Sometimes shooters just need to see the ball go through the net, and last week’s showing against the Vols could have done just that for Rattler heading into rivalry week vs Clemson this week. Another stat playing into this over is that Clemson is averaging close to 35 points per game right now… Despite the struggles on the surface, the Tigers are putting the ball in the end zone this season and I don’t see the Gamecocks defense changing that trend in Death Valley on Saturday. I think the Tigers pull this one out in a nail biter but I’m expecting a shootout so the total provides the most safety. Score Prediction: Clemson 34 – USC 31.
Kansas @ Kansas State – Saturday, 11/26 (8:00 PM EST)
Pick: Deuce Vaughn Total Rushing Yards Over 104.5 (+105) (1 unit)
This line hasn’t actually been released yet but there’s no way I don’t take the rush yard total on Deuce Vaughn this week unless it ends up being absolutely astronomical. All Kansas State does is run the ball, Kansas’ run defense is embarrassing, Vaughn has hit his rushing yards total in 5 out of his last 7 games and I’m expecting game script to work in the Wildcats favor in this one (they should easily handle Kansas which means they’ll continue to lean on the run game). Stay tuned for the actual total once it’s released later in the week. Just for context, Deuce Vaughn already has 1,148 rush yards on the season through 11 games.
***UPDATE*** The rushing total for Deuce Vaughn was released today and it’s only 104.5 yards. Deuce Vaughn is averaging over 104 rushing yards per game through 11 games this year and he’s topped the 105 yard mark 4 out of his last 5 games. Kansas’ run defense is trash and I’m expecting the Wildcats to pound the ball the entire game. Rush Yard Prediction: 124.
DPJ’s Best Bets (Since Week 12: 18-17 Overall, -0.47 Units)
Michigan @ Ohio State/Oregon @ Oregon State/Iowa State @ TCU
Pick: 10 Point Teaser: Michigan +17.5, Oregon State +13, TCU Moneyline (-120) (1 unit)
Notre Dame @ USC – Saturday, 11/26 (7:30 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 64 (-110) (1 unit)
Disclaimer: SidehustlebetsMJQ.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.