Man oh man the boys keep finding new lows this year for our NFL bets… I’d give you a rah rah intro to remind you how ridiculously close half of our bad beats have been this season but that’s loser talk. We still have quite a bit of season to go and DPJ and I both subscribe to the school of “grip it and rip it” so expect nothing but swing for the fence winners from here on out. They’ll write books about this come up.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 10: 10-17 Overall, -6.613 Units Total)
Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens/Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Ravens -6.5, Eagles Moneyline (-105) (1 unit)
The Panthers have shocked the world the past few weeks (unless you’re a Panthers fan… then you’re unsurprised at our inability to tank a season) but that luck is bound to run out sooner rather than later. The Ravens are a much better team, they’re less banged up and Baker Mayfield will get the start on Sunday after PJ Walker’s injury… Pretty much all I need to hear to take Baltimore by at least a TD considering Mark Andrews will likely return this week. Score Prediction: Ravens 27 – Panthers 17.
I’ve been hearing a ton of noise about how the Eagles can’t stop the run and that the Colts are back. That is absolute nonsense to preach to the masses after just one week… I see an Eagles/AJ Brown bounce back game in Indy this weekend and a reminder as to how washed up Matt Ryan has become. Jonathan Taylor is a great player but he hasn’t been 100% at any point this season and I can’t rationalize one big run last week meaning he’s going to all of the sudden revert to 2021 Jonathan Taylor. Let’s not forget, the Eagles should’ve gotten the ball back last week if it wasn’t for a terrible unnecessary roughness call on Heinicke at the end of the game… The Eagles will fly this weekend. Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Colts 17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers/NY Jets @ New England Patriots
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Steelers +14.5, Patriots Moneyline (+105) (1 unit)
Love this spot for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers this week. The Bengals have shown massive chinks in the armor when facing elite pass rushes and they’ll deal with just that against returning TJ Watt this week. Add to the fact that Ja’Marr Chase will miss another week due to injury this week and you get some headaches for my guy Joey B. Mike Tomlin is an absolute nightmare as an underdog and he’ll face a team that the Steelers have history against at home on Sunday. Covering 2 TDs feels very safe. Score Prediction: Bengals 24 – Steelers 20.
Billy B special this week. While I don’t think the offensive talent is there for the Patriots at the current moment (outside of Billy Zappe and the backfield), I do recognize another top notch defensive unit sure to wreak havoc on Zach Wilson’s nightmares for years to come. You can’t give Belichick two weeks to prepare for a young, relatively inexperienced QB… It literally never ends well for the opposition and New England has absolutely owned the Jets over the past few years. The Pats will probably cover at home but I’m simply taking their Moneyline to be safe. Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Jets 17.
Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills/Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Bills -6.5, Raiders/Broncos Total Points Under 51.5 (+115) (1 unit)
Now that the Bills have physically landed in Detroit (the original game was rescheduled due to a massive snowstorm in Buffalo right now), I’m confident in Josh Allen to rebound in strong fashion after two losses in a row. They also face a Browns team scheduled to get Deshaun Watson back on the roster following his suspension so there’s a lot of moving parts going on in Jacoby Brissett’s mind heading into this matchup against a stingy Bills defense. I’m expecting the Bills defense to slow down the Browns run game enough for their offense to separate in the second half and Josh Allen is well aware how badly he needs to show out after dropping two ugly games in a row during what was supposed to be “his” season. Also don’t be surprised to see Nyheim Hines/Devin Singletary hit a stride this week now that Hines has had an opportunity to actually learn the plays. Score Prediction: Bills 31 – Browns 20.
This take definitely doesn’t feel like one I need to write much about. Both of these teams are absolute dumpster fires. The Raiders offense has the edge over Denver’s offense but Denver’s defense is probably the best unit on either side of the ball for both teams. Russell Wilson has absolutely not been the answer for Denver this year, losing Javonte Williams has totally derailed the Broncos’ season and the Raiders literally got shut out two weeks ago… These two teams are averaging less than 27 point totals combined over the last three weeks. That’s barely half the alternate total I’m taking on them this week at 51.5 to be safe… Fade the garbage. Score Prediction: Raiders 20 – Broncos 17.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos/Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans
Pick: Prop Parlay: Davante Adams Anytime TD, Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (+485) (0.5 units)
REALLY swinging for the fences with this prop parlay this weekend. Davante Adams might be on a terrible team with a terrible QB, but he’s still Davante Adams and he’s scored 3 TDs over his past two games. Waller is still on IR, Hunter Renfrow is a shell of his former 2021 self and Derek Carr (Adams former college teammate) looks to him every single play. He’ll be covered by Surtain but it’s hard to say if it really matters who covers Adams at this point. Volume + generational talent = have to take Adams to score an anytime TD with positive odds.
Terry McLaurin is a different WR with Taylor Heinicke throwing him the ball, plain and simple. He’s garnered at least 8 targets since Week 7, he’s so overdue for a TD it’s disgusting and he’s crossed the 100 yard mark twice in his last 3 games. This Texans game should be closer than people expect and Heinicke is a total gamer so I firmly expect him to find his favorite target in the end zone at some point on Sunday.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 10: 15-25-1 Overall, -10.01 Units Total)
Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills/Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens/Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Bills Moneyline, Ravens Moneyline, Eagles Moneyline (-110) (1 unit)
We’re back with another heavy favorite moneyline parlay, and this might be one of my favorite bets of the year. The Bills and Eagles are both coming off losses at the hands of Taylor Heineke and Kirk Cousins so you know they will be fired up. I’m bummed we won’t get a Bills game in six feet of snow in Buffalo but playing indoors in Detroit will certainly not hurt this offense. Plus I bet a ton of Bills fans decide to make the trek across the midwest (or Canada) (or by boat across Lake Erie) to Michigan to watch their team play. The Ravens are getting healthy at the right time of the year and have turned themselves into a sneaky SuperBowl team. I don’t see any of these three having problems on Sunday. Cumulative Score Prediction: BUF/PHI/BAL 88 – CLE/CAR/IND 59
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, 11/20 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Cowboys -1.5 (-110) (1 unit)
I don’t have any fancy stats here but it feels like the Cowboys are poised to go into Minny and beat the Vikings. The line should pretty much tell you the whole story about what Vegas thinks about this Minnesota team. Yeah, they’re 8-1 but they’re a dog at home against the 6-3 Cowboys. Almost every single one of the Vikings wins have felt lucky aside from the week 1 shellacking of the Green Bay Packers. They now play three very solid defenses in a row (DAL, NE, NYJ) and I think it’s high time for them to get exposed. Score Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Vikings 22.
Kansas City Chiefs @ LA Chargers – Sunday, 11/20 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Chiefs -4.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Thanks to the recent news of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams potentially both playing in this game, this line came down from -6 to a much more palatable -4.5. I love it. While I’m a fan of both Keenan and Mike I don’t think that will be enough to keep the Chargers in this game. I also think it’s highly likely one of them (or both) get hurt again and don’t play the full game. Or, several other Chargers players will get hurt which seems to be a common theme week to week for this team. However, I will never root for injuries and even if the Chargers do manage to keep everyone’s knees and ankles intact they will be outmatched by KC. I always love betting on the road team in SoFi, especially if that team is a great traveling fan base like the Chiefs… that crowd should be damn near 50% red. KC should continue to roll on offense and at worst we get a bit of a shootout. Score Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Chargers 24.
NY Jets @ New England Patriots – Sunday, 11/20 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 38 (-110) (1 unit)
The Pats get the Jets at home coming off their bye and this game should be an absolute snoozefest of punts and offensive ineptitude. These two teams played three weeks ago and it was disgusting, and with the Pats having a full week to prepare it should be even worse for the Jets in week 11. I do love the Jets defense, Sauce Garnder is the truth and Robert Salah has them whipped into shape, so I expect them to make this a dog fight at the least. It’s always easy to bet the under when both QBs stink, even if that total happens to 38 points. I’m envisioning a Wisconsin vs. Iowa type of game here. Score Prediction: Patriots 17 – Jets 13.
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