CFB Week 8 Bets

You ask, we deliver. In Week 6 we combined to go 4-1 for +2.85 units which moves our season total to 19-16 for +2.08 units. Don’t look now, but we’re hitting our stride. This week’s slate of games is definitely less appealing than last week so we’re zeroing in on the value and avoiding the trap lines Vegas is feeding the masses for Saturday. Get right before you get left and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 7: 8-6 Overall, +2.15 Units Total, 4-1 since Week 5)

Mississippi State @ Alabama/Texas @ Oklahoma State
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Texas Moneyline, Alabama -9.5 (-110) (1 unit)

If you’re curious how Alabama will respond to last week’s upset loss against Tennessee, just take a look at how they responded to last year’s loss to Texas A&M (against… guess who… Mississippi State). Last year Alabama rolled into Starkville and destroyed Mississippi State 49-9, clearly taking out some frustrations on the Bulldogs from the week prior. Unfortunately for Mike Leach and his air raid offense, that trend should continue this weekend. Not only does Alabama’s offense outmatch Mississippi State’s defense on virtually every level (meaning Saban will get whatever he wants), their defense matches up nicely as well and should be hungry to prove their worth after getting shredded by Hendon Hooker (385 passing yards, 5 TDs, 56 rushing yards, 94.3 QBR) and allowing the Vols to put up 52 points on them in their first loss of the season. Don’t let last week’s upset fool you, Bryce Young didn’t lose to the Vols… Alabama’s kicker did. Expect Young to come out firing on all cylinders and for Will Anderson to have the defense barking in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Score Prediction: Alabama 45 – Mississippi State 20.

Texas is so back. This is by far the most exciting Longhorns offense since the Vince Young era. Quinn Ewers… Freshman gunslinging master of the mullet, Bijan Robinson (arguably the best RB in the nation)… closing in on 1,000 rushing yards on the season ALREADY and has found the end zone 10 times, Xavier Worthy… Sophomore speedster that’s been stretching out defenses from the jump. Probably one of the more surprising aspects of Sark’s surging squad has been the Longhorn defense. Texas’ defense is allowing less than 19 points per game, they literally shut out Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry this year and they’ve been fantastic in the red zone. Oh, and Oklahoma State’s starting QB (Spencer Sanders) is nursing a shoulder injury that could prevent him from suiting up on Saturday in general. I think this Texas squad beats a fully healthy Cowboys roster but the added uncertainty of their QB situation makes this Moneyline too juicy to ignore. Don’t view Texas’ 24-21 victory over Iowa State last week as a red flag, view it as a reality check that shouldn’t fare well for Oklahoma State in Stillwater this weekend. Score Prediction: Texas 34 – Oklahoma State 24.

Iowa @ Ohio State/Mississippi State @ Alabama
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Iowa/Ohio State Total Points Under 57.5, Jahmyr Gibbs Over 104.5 Rushing Yards (+250) (0.5 units)

This take is simple, Iowa has an elite defense (especially secondary) that should be able to slow down this Buckeyes offense (finally) and Iowa’s offense is… truly awful. Both offenses play super slow, Ohio State’s defense is nothing to scoff at regardless of how terrible the Hawkeyes are on that side of the ball, Iowa hasn’t had a single game this year result in a total over 41 points and Ohio State will likely be looking ahead to their matchup against Penn State in Happy Valley next weekend. I expect the Buckeyes to control this game but I don’t foresee a shootout whatsoever. Score Prediction: Ohio State 34 – Iowa 10.

Gibbs has absolutely taken over Alabama’s backfield and he has over 100 rushing yards in their last 3 games (two of which were close games that would’ve prevented a run heavy game script for the Tide). I’m projecting a Bama blowout over the Bulldogs on Saturday so expect Gibbs to continue to get a ton of burn. Just for context, he posted 206 rushing yards and 2 TDs on only 18 carries against Arkansas a few weeks ago… THAT’S 11.4 YARDS PER CARRY. Oh, and he found the end zone three different times against Tennessee last week… Expect the ground assault to continue on Saturday. Rushing Yards Projection: 124.5 Rushing Yards.

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 7: 11-10 Overall, -0.07 Units Total)

Iowa @ Ohio State – Saturday, 10/22 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 50.5 (-110) (1 unit)

I am shocked it has taken me this long into the season to take an Iowa under but here we are. The Hawkeyes are fresh off of a 9-6 loss (lol) to Illinois as they head east on Saturday to Columbus to get dismantled by the Buckeyes. I know a few Iowa fans, and if they had it their way they would not even bother letting the offense take the field. That is how bad they are. I think they’d be better off playing defense and immediately punting on 1st down. For some context, Iowa comes in ranked 255th in total yards, 251st in rushing and 231st in passing. That is impossibly bad. I would be shocked if the Hawkeyes even crack double digits against a very solid Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes however are in full blown wagon mode right now, they look like a runaway freight train. I’m not sure how any team in the Big 10 is going to slow this team down. 50 points is also a nice round number where OSU can score 5-6 TDs and we’ll still stay under that total. Score Prediction: Ohio State 42 – Iowa 3.

UCLA @ Oregon – Saturday, 10/22 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: UCLA +6.5 (-110) (1 unit)

Let’s take a quick moment to appreciate the Pac 12, or as my dear friend Bill Walton (rightfully) calls it, The Conference of Champions. The notorious western football juggernaut conference has 4 teams ranked in the top 15 right now, which is the same number as the SEC and two more than the Big 10. We better enjoy this while we can because it’s almost certainly not going to last. And that starts this weekend as #10 Oregon gets a home game against #9 UCLA. Chip Kelly has his boys playing lights out right now, sitting at 16th in total yards and 12th in points. They are doing it with a balanced rushing and passing attack led by RB Zach Charbonnet and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (that is way too many names/letters for one person). They also have a WR named Jake Bobo which is a combo of my first name and my dog’s name, pretty cool if you ask me. Most importantly I know Chip will be fired up to head home to Eugene to take on his former team and the brand that he pretty much built on by himself (and with Phil Knight’s checkbook). Getting 6 points is simply too tasty to pass on here so I’m riding the Bruins in what should be a hard fought battle either way. Score Prediction: UCLA 38 – Oregon 36.

Mississippi State @ Alabama – Saturday, 10/22 (7:00 PM EST)
Pick: Alabama -21 (-110) (1 unit)

Alabama is coming off one of the best games I’ve watched in years, but they fell at the hands of the Vols in Knoxville. What an epic game that was, and oh how angry little Nick Saban must have been this week in practice. When that game ended last week I thought to myself “I am betting on Bama no matter what the spread and opponent are next week”. I took a look at the sportsbooks on Monday, and what do you know, Bama is a 3 TD favorite against Miss State. This MSU team is significantly worse than Tennessee and I don’t expect the Tide to have much trouble with them. I would absolutely hate to be a team playing Bama after a tough road loss like that, so some preemptive thoughts and prayers should be given to MSU. The Bulldogs defense is soft per usual under Mike Leach and this could easily be a 5 TD day for Bryce Young. I will end this paragraph with a tangentially related humble brag about my pre-season Hendon Hooker heisman pick. I gave it to you all at +6600, and he sits right now with the second best odds at +500. He’s got a ways to go but it has been quite a ride for Hendon. Score Prediction: Alabama 41 – Mississippi State 17.

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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