Week 7 is upon us and don’t look now but we are officially in the second trimester of the season. More importantly, don’t look at our betting records this year for the NFL. While it might hurt to share these numbers with you, we are as transparent as it gets here at the MJQ Global Headquarters and we have nothing to hide from. We are a combined 17-26 and -8.4 units through six weeks. Certainly not where we’d like to be, but we’ve still got a lot of season left. And we should not forget that last year we were a combined 76-60 for the full season, which translates to a rock solid 56%. I’m not a math guy but I know reversion to the mean is certainly a thing, and we simply can’t hit at a 40% clip for the whole season. As my close personal friend Harvey Dent said in Batman, “the night is darkest before the dawn”. I sense an absolutely massive run of wins coming so now is the time to either get on board or stay on board and ride with us into a sea of green.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 6: 10-15 Overall, -5.15 Units Total)
NY Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars/Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Jaguars Moneyline, Patriots Moneyline (+105) (1 unit)
The Jags head home after blowing away another game on the road last week in Indy. This Jags team knows how to score and rack up yards, and I think they will slowly figure out how to win games too. They are somehow a 3 point favorite over the 5-1 Giants (huh?) which has quickly put this game into the “this line makes no F’ing sense” column. There is no reason the Jags should be favored here, and because of that I am taking them in a moneyline parlay with the Pats. Vegas knows something that I don’t, what else is new. At least I am smart enough to sniff that out. Score Prediction: Jags 27 – Giants 24.
Bill Belicheck said something like two million words praising the Bears in his press conference this week. Yes, those same Bears that have looked like the worst team in football and the ones who could very well have the #1 pick in the draft next year. I know what old Billy Boy is up to…he’s buttering up his opponent before he brings them into Foxboro on Monday night and torches them in all three phases of the game. I can only hope that gunslinger Bailey Zappe gets another shot under center, but either way the Pats should cruise. Score Prediction: Patriots 31 – Bears 17.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: Ravens -0.5, Dolphins -1.5 (-110) (1 unit)
The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the most frustrating teams to watch in 2022. I live with a Ravens fan, and they have been losing in some spectacular ways which is driving their fan base insane. I think they have trailed for something like 3 total minutes in 2022 yet here they sit at 3-3. Brutal. Bottom line, the Ravens are still a very good football team. And they happen to be playing a team that also doesn’t know how to win games, the Cleveland Browns. I’m expecting Lamar to take out his frustrations on this Browns team and foresee the Ravens leading wire to wire (and by wire to wire, I mean not lose in the last minute). Score Prediction: Ravens 27 – Browns 17.
Tua is finally back under center in Miami and he gets a very favorable matchup against the Steelers at home in South Florida. Pittsburgh is coming off of their biggest win of the season which was a miraculous win over Tom Brady last week in a huge upset. This should be a big let down game for them coming off that high and I expect the Dolphins to cruise. This is also Miami’s chance to get back to their winning ways after a volatile season (started 3-0 and have now lost 3 in a row). I like the Dolphins to cover the 7.5 but getting them down to -1.5 in a teaser feels like robbing the bank. Score Prediction: Dolphins 30 – Steelers 20.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, 10/23 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 49 (-110) (1 unit)
The Niners made a blockbuster trade on Thursday night going all-in on Christian McCaffery, which feels like a trade that could make or break their chance at a SuperBowl run for this year and next. CMC is massively talented and Shanahan is the run-scheme god but he has a brutal injury history and they gave up significant assets for him + are on the hook for his fat contract. I’ve always thought Shanny’s value was elevating the RB room to the point that they don’t need to spend like this on an RB but CMC really is that good and that valuable when healthy. With that being said, who knows if he’s even gonna play on Sunday or how many snaps he gets. And either way, the 49ers path to winning this game starts and ends with ball control and winning in the trenches. I’m a Rams fan so I’ve seen my fair share of 10 minute 49er drives that end in a FG and they are absolutely sickening to watch if you have the over. I actually like SF to maybe win this game but I refuse to pick against Mahomes coming off a loss. I think we see a slow grinder of a game that should keep this total under 49. Score Prediction: Chiefs 20 – 49ers 18 (6 field goals).
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 6: 7-11 Overall, -3.303 Units Total)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers/Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots
***Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Buccaneers -6.5, Patriots -2.5 (-110) (1 unit)
***I’ll more than likely add a Bucs Total Sacks prop once released as well (sorry Panther nation)
As timid as I am to trust Tom Brady in any capacity, it’s hard not to fade my beloved Panthers right now. With PJ Walker under center and our best player nice and settled in San Francisco (Christian McCaffrey), it’s hard to say what Carolina’s game script will even be vs this stingy Bucs defensive unit on Sunday. I know this Bucs team has been playing terribly lately, but they are FAR from a bad team. This is still one of the best defensive units combined with a lethal set of offensive weapons. In the words of Julius from Remember the Titans, “Attitude reflects leadership, captain”. Hard not to look at the Bucs fearless leader in that regard… but I digress… Long story short, the Panthers are in full on rebuild mode, the Bucs are still a contender like it or not and Tom Brady has no respect for veterans (if you don’t know what I’m referring to, look it up). Score Prediction: Bucs 24 – Panthers 10.
Love this spot for the Pats. While I think they’re clearly overrated, it won’t be the Bears to expose them at home. They might actually be better with Bailey Zappe under center (aka the crown jewel of my dynasty league rookie draft this year). This Pats defense is another stingy unit (shocker) and Baby Billy is sure to cook up some frightening looks for Justin Fields that are sure to haunt his dreams for years to come. Respect the spooky season reference, have faith in Belichick’s beautiful defensive mind and expect Fields’ woes as an underdog to continue on Monday. Score Prediction: Patriots 27 – Bears 17.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins – Sunday, 10/23 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Tyreek Hill Receptions Over 6.5 (+110) (1 unit)
I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw this prop. Not only has Hill covered this number in 5 out of 6 games this year so far (~83.33%), but he also gets back his true QB1 in Tua Tagovailoa this week. Even if Tua comes out a little flat post injury, Hill posted 12 receptions with two different BACKUP QBs last week… If anything I bet they reintroduce Tua to game speed by dialing up a bunch of short passes to Hill/Waddle until he gets his confidence back. If these factors aren’t enough for you, the Steelers secondary has let up the most yardage to opposing WRs all season. Easy money. Receptions Projection: 9.5 Receptions.
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