Well, NFL sports betting isn’t for the faint-hearted. Week 5 ended up netting the boys +0.4 units thanks to DPJ’s heroic week but my best bets have definitely seen better days… Time to engage that short memory. Nothing but winners from the SHB NFL brain trust this week. Focus on trends, don’t buy into the hypes and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 5: 6-9 Overall, -1.973 Units Total)
Baltimore Ravens @ NY Giants – Sunday, 10/16 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Ravens -5.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Love this spot for the Ravens this week. I’m truly baffled at how the Giants only have one loss on the season up to this point… I’ve been impressed by Saquon but that’s pretty much it and teams coming off of games overseas who forgo the following bye week have been atrocious historically (the Giants played the Packers in London last week). The Ravens on the other hand have looked great so far this season and should get a healthy Ronnie Staley back to firm up the offensive line against NY’s pass rush. For those of you unaware, the Giants Defensive Coordinator (Wink Martindale) used to be Baltimore’s DC so Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense will be super familiar with the looks they get against this pass rush on Sunday. Expect Jackson to tear up this Giants secondary and for Daboll’s overrated squad to fall back down to Earth this weekend. Score Prediction: Ravens 31 – Giants 20.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers/Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs/Carolina Panthers @ LA Rams
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Bucs -2.5, Chiefs +14.5, Rams -2.5 (-105) (1 unit)
Taking advantage of the Bucs’ lackluster performances thus far this season while I still can. Did they look great last week? No. Have the Steelers looked good at any point in 2022/will this be the best defense that rookie Kenny Pickett has seen in his career? They’ve looked like trash and yes this pass rush/secondary should give him nightmares for years to come. Throwing them into this parlay to be safe given Brady’s… distractions… right now but I’m confident that they should win this game by more than a field goal this tomorrow. Score Prediction: Bucs 24 – Steelers 13.
This is the first time in Mahomes’ career that he’s listed as an underdog at home. You read that correctly… the first time EVER in his career. It feels like these teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum regarding hype right now and I just can’t resist taking Mahomes at home with points. This Bills team looks legit so I’m padding the parlay a bit for safety but I’ll be astonished if the Chiefs don’t keep this one within 2 TDs considering there’s a great chance that Sunday’s matchup against Josh Allen will be a sneak preview into the AFC Championship this year. I was tempted to take the over in this one but after mulling it over for a while that 54 point total feels like a trap considering how good Buffalo’s defense has been this year so I’m going to side with the former league MVP/Super Bowl champion to remind the league of his greatness and turn this one into a barn burner that will likely be decided by a handful of late possessions. Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Chiefs 24.
This hot take should be pretty self explanatory… The Panthers will be starting PJ Walker under center on Sunday, their defense is banged up (Jaycee Horn has already been ruled out for the contest and Jeremy Chinn was placed on the IR recently) and they just finally fired their head coach Matt Rhule. While it is slightly concerning how well teams have played historically following the firing of their head coach, I just don’t see how the Panthers overcoming all the adversity this week against a defending Super Bowl champion Rams team hungry for a “get right” game after a lackluster start to their season (and a convincing loss to a Cooper Rush led Cowboys team last week). Expect a blow out at SoFi this Sunday. Score Prediction: Rams 27 – Panthers 10.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints – Sunday, 10/16 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Taysom Hill Rush Attempts Over 0.5 (-150) (1 unit)
I had to double take when I saw this prop. Not only does it sound like Taysom Hill will be a go health wise for Sunday, but Jameis won’t be the game’s starter so I don’t see how Hill doesn’t come away with at least one rush in this game. He’s averaging over 5 rush attempts per game in the 4 games he’s played in this year and he’s never recorded less than at least 3 rush attempts in any game in 2022. This is simply easy money regardless of game script. Jump all over this while you still can because Vegas definitely dropped the ball here. Rush Attempt Prediction: 4.5.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 5: 10-11 Overall, -1.15 Units Total)
NY Jets @ Green Bay Packers/San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: Packers -1, 49ers -0.5 (-110) (1 unit)
I cashed my first NFL teaser of the year last year which puts me at 1-2 on the year. I’m going to ride this massive positive momentum into week 6 and saddle up with two favorites once again as we have the Packers back at home after the London to face the God Damn Jets, and the 49ers who head to the peach state for a matchup with the Falcons.
This Packers team has been puzzling all year. Week after week, Aaron Rodgers looks like a moody teenager who is unhappy that his parents won’t let him play video games with his friends until 3 in the morning. The Pack looked like they had found their rhythm again, rattling off three straight wins, but that fun ride ended last week at the hands of Daniel Jones and a crowd of drunken Brits. Rodgers hates to lose back to back games, and he sure as hell would hate losing back to back games against the New York football teams. With that in mind I think the Pack come back to Lambeau this week and kick the teeth out of the Jets. It’ll start with establishing the run and creating some space for the passing game. The Jet’s have won two in a row, and are on the plus side of .500, but it’s time for them to come back to earth. Score Prediction: Packers 27 – Jets 14.
Don’t look now, but the San Francisco 49ers could very well be the best team in the NFC. I know the Eagles are getting their flowers, and Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers still exist, but this Niners defense is ridiculously good and Jimmy’s boys at least know what it takes to get to the Super Bowl. I sprinkled a wager this week on them to win the SB at +1400, purely because I love that value when there is no clear-cut dominant NFC team. The pick against the Falcons is fairly simple, the Falcons only strength is in their rushing attack and the 49ers happen to be the best run defense in the NFL. I’m also going to be on the Falcons team total under 19.5 here in the next pick so I’ll have more to summarize below. Score Prediction: 49ers 24 – Falcons 17.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, 10/16 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Falcons Total Points Under 19.5 (+100) (1 unit)
This bet worked like a charm for me last week and I’m gonna run it back in week 6 as the same logic holds true. Last week we saw the Falcons offense get dismantled by the Bucs defense, and this week I’m expecting much of the same with an arguably better defense coming to town. Cordarrelle Patterson is on IR, and the Falcons are relying on the likes of Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley to run the ball. And a team has to rely on the run game with Marcus Mariota is your QB. I don’t see that working in the favor in week 6 as Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Co. should be terrorizing their offense line. 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga is an absolute menace on defense and has been their X factor all year and I’d expect another big game from him. the 49ers should control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, they are tremendously good at controlling the clock and wearing down the opponent. I don’t expect this or the teaser to be much of a sweat as Kyle Shanahan heads back to his former home of Atlanta. Score Prediction: 49ers 24 – Falcons 17.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 10/16 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Chiefs +3 (-110) (1 unit)
What a matchup we have here, and at 1:25 PT on Sunday afternoon no-less. The NFL should give us a treat like this more often. Yeah it’s fun to put the big matchups in primetime but there’s something about the two best teams in football squaring up on a Sunday afternoon that really gets the juices flowing. This pick is fairly simple, I think these teams are very evenly matched and I think it’s going to be a great game from start to finish. However…the Chiefs getting THREE points at home is simply ridiculous so I have no choice but to take the points. This could very well be a Vegas trap as I am surely not alone in my shock and awe at Mahomes being a home dog against anyone, but here we are. The Chiefs certainly had some question marks coming into the year with no Tyreek but they have not missed a beat and look as good as ever. They’re first in points scored with 31.8 per game, and the Bills are right behind them at 30.4. This should be a fun back-and-forth game with plenty of points and I think it comes down to one score at the end. With that in mind I will love to be sitting on those three points so we are taking the mighty Chiefs. Let’s just hope they have a moment of silence before kickoff in honor of the league employee who was brutally injured by Davante Adams on the sideline last week in Arrowhead. If that’s the case, Chiefs by a million. Score Prediction: Bills 34 – Chiefs 38.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday, 10/16 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-110) (1 unit)
We go from the high flying Chiefs/Bills pick to an absolute poop fest here in Indy. The Jags look to get their season back on track after a tough loss to Houston last week with a matchup against one of the least-fun teams to watch this year, the Indianapolis Colts. The Jags have had their struggles in spots this year but I think there’s enough talent on both sides of the ball to not only win this game but to make a run at the AFC South. Their defense in particular has been stout against the run and above average against the pass. The Colts only chance of winning games seems to be relying on Jonathan Taylor, or playing the brain dead Denver Broncos, neither of which will be happening in week 6. Taylor is banged up already and even if he suits I don’t think he’ll have any fun getting knocked around by this Jags front seven. I think the Jags defense will make it so Trevor Lawrence only has to play average to win this game for Jacksonville. And even if it comes down to a FG at the end, it’ll feel good to have those 2.5 points. We’re Jaggin’ off this week baby. Score Prediction: Jaguars 24 – Colts 23.
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