NFL Week 5 Bets

Things continue to move in the right direction for the lads here at MJQ headquarters. We netted another .78 units in week 4, which gives us more than 3 total units earned in the last 2 weeks. It’s safe to say we have put those sloppy first two weeks behind us and it should be nothing but green from here. There are some marquee divisional matchups on the schedule this week, notably Bengals @ Ravens, Raiders @ Chiefs, and Texans @ Jaguars (lol). We are now fully in the trenches of the season as teams begin to cement themselves as contenders or pretenders. And to make things even better, we’ll now have MLB Playoffs along with some early NBA season action to pair with all these football games. 

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 4: 7-10 Overall, -2.88 Units Total)

Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots – Sunday, 10/9 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Patriots -3 (-110) (1 unit)

This line makes such little sense to me that I have no choice other than to bet New England. I’ve seen this movie before, when something seems off like this you have to assume Vegas knows better. They are begging…BEGGING you to bet the Lions here. The Lions have been a fun team for the second year in a row, and rightfully so. They play hard as hell and this year they can run the football as well as anyone. I’m guessing Vegas is extremely worried about the Lions run defense, which continues to get embarrassed week after week. You have to assume Bellichick is going to out-coach Campbell here and find a way to cover these 3 points. Score Prediction: Patriots 23 – Lions 17.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills/Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: Bills -7.5, Vikings -1 (-110) (1 unit)

Returning to a classic bet of mine here, teasing my two favorite teams for the week. Buffalo gets the treat of coming home for a game against the Steelers after a tough win in Baltimore last week. The Bills simply love to blow teams out and I think this one will be a route from start to finish. I don’t think Kenny Pickett is ready to win an NFL game, or even come within one score of the best team in football on the road. The Vikings are a pretty damn simple pick as well. Kirk Cousins not in primetime, against a Bears team that should absolutely not be 2-2, easy W. I similarly expect the Vikings to control this one from start to finish and I think we will once again see that Justin Fields does not have the juice. Score Predictions: Bills 30 – Steelers 10, Vikings 23 – Bears 13.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday, 10/9 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Falcons Team Total Under 20 (-110) (1 unit)

The Falcons have been very fun this year and they are 4-0 against the spread coming into week 5. They could have a very real chance of covering the +9 spread, but I like the under on their team total this week. Atlanta loves to run the ball, and the Bucs run defense is as scary as it gets. Atlanta scored 23 points last week and virtually ran it down the Browns throat the entire second half. I think this will be a hard fought, low scoring game on both sides. The only way the Falcons get over 20 is if the Bucs truly blow them out and we get significant garbage time for a quarter or more. Plus, I always like a nice round football number like 20 to sit on. Score Prediction: Bucs 24 – Falcons 17.

Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets – Sunday, 10/9 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Dolphins -3 (-110) (1 unit)

Love this spot for the Dolphins here. Yes, they lost Tua for at least this week but Teddy is a very solid backup and the Dolphins get a windfall of a trip to New York to play a Jets team coming off the emotional high of a big comeback victory over the Steelers. Spoiler alert, the Dolphins are much better than the Steelers (even with Teddy) and I expect them to regain their footing after a tough L in Cincy last week. Even better, that game was on a Thursday so the extra rest should help a ton even with the travel up the eastern seaboard. If memory serves, Tyreek Hill was pretty close to being traded to and signing his extension with the Jets before Miami swooped in so I bet he’s ready to shove it in their face as well. Score Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Jets 20.

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 4: 5-7 Overall, -0.64 Units Total)

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills/Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Buccaneers Moneyline, Bills -2.5, Bengals/Ravens Total Points Over 40 (-120) (1 unit)

I’ll try to keep this brief (considering there’s three legs to the parlay).

Don’t get me wrong, I do not like Tom Brady. That said, anyone who thinks he cares more about his marriage falling apart than losing two games in a row is truly foolish. While I do have respect for what I believe to be a heavily underrated Falcons squad (especially their secondary), they’re banged up right now in their own right (Cordarelle Patterson hit the IR last week) and this Bucs defense is due for a solid showing at home after a dismal performance last week against the Chiefs. Not taking the Bucs spread here because it’s sitting around -10 right now and, like I said, I do think the public is sleeping on the Falcons a bit… But I simply cannot wrap my head around the possibility of Brady dropping three straight with the talent surrounding him in Tampa right now. Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27 – Falcons 17.

I’ve had this Steelers/Bills rematch marked on my calendar ever since the Steelers upset the Bills at the beginning of last season. I hate to bet against Mike Tomlin as a road dog but this is simply too good to pass up… The Bills are arguably the best team in the league right now, at home, pissed off about last year’s loss and facing a rookie QB about to make his first start (in a hostile environment, with a terrible O line). Recipe for disaster for Pickett. Don’t recommend trying that fake slide in Buffalo… Score Prediction: Bills 31 – Steelers 14.

This Sunday night matchup between the Bengals and Ravens feels destined to end in a shootout. The Bengals offense is finally starting to hit its stride, neither defense has looked good whatsoever this season, both QBs tend to shine in the limelight and this rivalry has averaged totals of 60 over the last two years. Don’t let the magic total number of 40 as the third leg of a parlay fool you… Points will be plentiful Sunday night. Score Prediction: Ravens 31 – Bengals 27.

Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets – Sunday, 10/9 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Dolphins -3 (-110) (1 unit)

This is your typical overreaction play of the week due to both sides of the matchup. For the Jets… they barely beat a terrible Steelers team last week, they haven’t played a good defense all season and last week was the first time Zach Wilson has played all year. This line feels like people are so confused by the Jets being .500 that they’re over rationalizing the last victory so that their brains don’t spontaneously combust. Don’t be a fool, stay in (the) school… of thought that the Jets suck. The Dolphins overreaction from last week is clear. Obviously it’s unfortunate that Tua suffered such a brutal injury against Cincy last week. That said, Miami has the best backup in professional football in Teddy Bridgewater, Miami’s defense is young and talented and they have one of (if not the best) WR duos in the NFL (Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle). Fun fact, Bridgewater has covered the spread in nearly 80% of the games he’s started… that’s truly “take it to the bank” type numbers and that’s without elite talents at WR like Hill/Waddle. Teddy Covers to the rescue.. Easy money. Score Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Jets 17.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals – Sunday, 10/9 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: DeVonta Smith Total Receptions Over 3.5 (-150) (1 unit)

Hard as I try, I just can’t resist a juicy prop from time to time… Especially when that prop involves the first wide receiver to win the Heisman trophy since 1991 (only one of three ever). Was I skeptical of the AJ Brown hype before the season started? Yes. Has my foot been in my mouth since week 1? My breath reeks of Gold Bond. Not only has AJ Brown added a much needed layer to a very one dimensional Eagles offense, but he’s also opened things up for the Slim Reaper by drawing every opposing defenses #1 cover guy week in/week out. What has Smith done with his new found freedom? In his last three games he’s averaging 6 receptions, over 88 receiving yards per game (169 rec yards in Week 3 alone) and pretty much every single one of those games were blowouts (heavy run script for the most part). This week the Eagles face a tough road test against a Cardinals team that appears to be ramping up for a run once they get their veteran WR Deandre Hopkins back from suspension (and for their in-season version of Hard Knocks in about a month). I suspect this game to be closer than Vegas is predicting, especially with the massive “undefeated” target on Philly’s back, so there’s a great chance Hurts is going to have to air it out at times… Who’s going to be open? Probably not the guy being shadowed by Byron Murphy Jr all game (AJ Brown)… The fact that DeVonta Smith is this good and technically the #2 WR for the Eagles is scary and I’m jumping all over this value while I still can. Receptions Projection: 5.5

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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