What did we tell you??? The boys went undefeated last week (3-0) to finish +2.73 units on the week, making us 13-11 overall for a total of +1.41 units on the season. This heater train has no stops… do yourself a favor and hop aboard. Brace yourself for the Red River Rivalry and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 5: 5-5 Overall, +0.21 Units Total)
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State/Arkansas @ Mississippi State
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: Oklahoma State -2.5, Mississippi State -2.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Don’t let the Texas game fool you, Texas Tech still isn’t very good. The Red Raiders got absolutely torched by Kansas State last week and Oklahoma State has one of the better offenses in the country. Spencer Sanders is absolutely balling out this season and that train’s not going to stop at home. Throwing this into a teaser to be safe since Oklahoma State’s defense is also pretty bad but I’m expecting a blowout in Stillwater this weekend. Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 41 – Texas Tech 27.
Arkansas is coming off of back to back SEC losses (last week taking a beating from Alabama’s backup QB), their starting QB (KJ Jefferson) is dealing with a concussion from last week/probably won’t suit up against the Bulldogs and they’ll face a Mike Leach led air raid attack in hostile territory on Saturday. All signs point to a Mississippi State W as long as Will Rogers stays hot (he’s already passed for over 1,700 yards and 19 TDs this year…) and they can somewhat contain Arkansas run game. Score Prediction: Mississippi State 31 – Arkansas 24.
Texas vs Oklahoma/Texas A&M @ Alabama
Pick: 3 Way Parlay: Texas -2.5, Texas/Oklahoma Total Points Over 53.5, Alabama Moneyline (-120) (1 unit)
Nifty little trends parlay, eh?
The Red River Rivalry is virtually always a shootout. This matchup has resulted in totals over 60 for the past 5 years and the last two years specifically averaged totals over 100 points (100.5 to be exact)… That’s a lot of points. I don’t expect this year to be much different now that Quinn Ewers’ return from injury has been announced. I could see the Longhorns run away with this one late given Oklahoma’s injury problems right now but I could also see Oklahoma making this a game just simply due to the rivalry (this will be Brent Venables first Red River Rivalry game as Oklahoma’s head coach so you know he’ll have the boys jacked up heading into Saturday). All things considered, I’m very comfortable taking Texas at -2.5 here due to their firepower between Quinn Ewers/Bijan Robinson and I’m also comfortable taking the over on a lower total of 53.5 (an over that’s only missed twice since 2010 in this matchup) given the holes on both defenses. Score Prediction: Texas 38 – Oklahoma 17.
This Alabama play is simple… Saban absolutely torches teams the year after being upset by them. Texas A&M will be walking into a buzzsaw in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Not only is Alabama better than Texas A&M on both sides of the ball, Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban were jawing at each other all offseason… essentially accusing each other of cheating as far as recruiting. I’m expecting this matchup to get ugly and fast. Score Prediction: Alabama 35 – Texas A&M 10.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 5: 8-6 Overall, +1.2 Units Total)
Arkansas @ Mississippi State – Saturday, 10/8 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Arkansas +9.5 (-110) (1 unit)
The Razorbacks made a furious comeback last week at home vs. Alabama. It ended up being all for nothing as they got spanked 21-3 in the fourth quarter. I think they can ride that small bit of momentum into Starkville on Saturday and potentially upset Mississippi State, but at the least cover the 9.5 points. Pittman is 2-0 against Mike Leach in their short SEC careers, as the Razorback defense has kept the Bulldogs in check. The Hogs will most likely have to rely on the run-game this week with KJ Jefferson’s status still somewhat cloudy for Saturday and he might not be 100% at kickoff. I can see this being a low scoring game, going under the total of 57.5 with Arkansas keeping it within one touchdown. Score Prediction: Arkansas 24 – Miss State 30.
Tennessee @ LSU – Saturday, 10/8 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 64.5 (-110) (1 unit)
This should be one of the most exciting games of the weekend as the red-hot #8 ranked Tennessee Volunteers head to Death Valley (the real Death Valley, not the fake one in South Carolina) to take on LSU. It’s been an interesting year for LSU thus far and I think after the week 1 loss to FSU folks were ready for Brian Kelly to quit on the spot as he seems like a fish out of water. But (sadly) he is a damn good football coach and LSU has rattled off 4 wins since, two of them over fellow SEC teams. The offense appears to be clicking and I think it will continue to click against Tennessee. The Vols are not really a team that’s going to beat you with defense, so I am forecasting points early and often in this one. Hendon Hooker should continue his Heisman bid this week as the Vols have scored 34+ points in every game this year. Score Prediction: Tennessee 34 – LSU 32.
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt – Saturday, 10/8 (4:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 61.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Up next for Jake’s best bets is another SEC game and another over. Wow! This game is most likely going to be a blowout, but Vandy’s offense has had two weeks to recover from an absolute beatdown in Tuscaloosa and should at least get back on track with some points in week 5. Ole Miss is doing typical Ole Miss stuff on offense: 29th in points, 7th in rushing yards and 34th in total yards. Vandy’s defense is god awful, giving up 464 yards a game, good for 234th best in the country. I didn’t even know there were 234 college football programs in America, but I digress. If things break right, Ole Miss will be up something like 30-10 at half time and then from there it’s some easy garbage time points to cover the 61.5. Lane Kiffin loves points, I love points, we all love points. Score Prediction: Ole Miss 41 – Vandy 23.
Washington State @ USC – Saturday, 10/8 (7:30 PM EST)
Pick: Washington State +13.5
I simply cannot resist betting on games that involve USC. I’m currently 0-2 on the season, I bet against them once (and they proceeded to blow out Stanford), and I bet on them vs. Oregon State (and they damn near lost to the Beavers, and certainly did not cover). I’m ready for the law of averages and my supreme betting abilities to carry me back to life with a big cover for the Cougars in LA. It’s tough to match up offensively with a Lincoln Riley squad but this Wash State team has a great passing game and run defense which could stifle the Trojans. USC should also start to feel the national pressure mounting, as they are undefeated and on the precipice of being ‘back’ if they can string together 6 or 7 more victories. Even better, the hardest game on the Trojans schedule (Utah) is next week so they could be overlooking the Cougs this week if their head isn’t in the right place. I like Washington State to hang around in this one, and worst case scenario +13.5 is asking to be back door covered at the end. Score Prediction: Washington State 24 – USC 32.
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