Good news folks, we got our worst week of the year out of the way already. Week 1 in the NFL was just a gross, disgusting sports betting experience all around. So much so that I won’t waste anymore time discussing it. Onwards and upwards, redirecting the SHB train to the moon in Week 2. Let’s get it.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 1: 1-2 Overall, -1.09 Units Total)
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 9/18 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Commanders -2 (-110) (1 unit)
The mighty Commanders damn near blew their first game under the new team name against the plucky underdog Jaguars. Wentz made some great throws and some absolutely god awful throws, which at the end of the day is what the Commies signed up for: The Carson Wentz Experience. The guy can sling 4 TDs looking like Pat Mahomes and throw multiple picks in the same game looking like Nathan Peterman. It’s electric. I’m ready to strap myself to the Wentz rocket and see if WAS can get to 2-0 against Detroit. I love the Lions as a dog but them as a favorite? That just doesn’t smell right in any way, shape or form. The Lions showed some flashed in week 1 but that game was not nearly as close as the score suggests. Goff still very much looks like Goff, which is not gonna win you a lot of games without a great defense and weapons around him. I’m a D’Andre Swift truther for fantasy purposes but you can’t win many games in the NFL with an RB as your entire offense. WAS getting 2.5 points is too much to resist, and I think they go up to Detroit and get the job done. Score Prediction: Commanders 30 – Lions 24
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, 9/18 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Colts -4 (-105) (1 unit)
Hand up, the Colts fell completely flat for me in week 1. I took them in a teaser, wrote some kind words about Matt Ryan and why this Indy team should dominate the AFC south, heck I even sprinkled some cash on the Super Bowl odds. Definitely feeling stupid right now and I am going to double down on my stupidity and take them in week 2 against the Jags. I think this was a big wake up call for the Colts, and I was at least glad to see them find their footing in the 4th quarter as they stormed back and almost won. As an aside, I think a tie is inherently hilarious but the NFL really needs to adjust OT rules so we can get a winner. College OT is the absolute best. Luckily for Indy the Titans lost a lousy Giants team, and they go to Buffalo this week, so a win over the Jags should put them at the top of the division. I try not to overreact to week 1 too much so I’m sticking to my guns and taking Indy -4 here. Score Prediction: Colts 27 – Jags 20.
Atlanta Falcons @ LA Rams/Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: Rams -4.5, Bengals -1 (-110) (1 unit)
I took a teaser in week 1 and got burned by Indy, and now I’m going back to the well for another teaser with the two teams that met in SuperBowl LVI in LA. Both of these teams were extremely disappointing in their first game of 2022 but they both have a juicy week 2 matchup that represents a great opportunity to get back on track.
The Rams could not have looked much worse against Josh Allen and the Bills on opening night. Even the defense creating four turnovers looked like swiss cheese at times, and Allen consistently was able to move the ball in chunks for most of the night. Most shockingly, the offense was putrid and Stafford had no feel on his throws. Basically everyone not named Cooper Kupp laid an egg and should be ashamed of themselves. Atlanta is the perfect road trip to rally the troops and get this season moving back in the right direction. Rams simply need to win by about a TD+ to cover this one, and if they can’t do their season is gonna be on life support. Rams 33 – Falcons 17.
The Bengals, similarity, looked like absolute ass against the Steelers. That ‘revamped’ offensive line that Cincy spent draft capital and significant salary cap to bolster was just as bad as last year’s OL. Burrow was running for his life and getting knocked around, made many bad decisions and turned it over early and often. Somehow the Bengals still had several chances to win but they couldn’t get the job done. Now they get the pleasure of traveling to Dallas to face Cooper Rush’s Cowboys. No Dak, a weak offensive line, and most importantly Mike McCarthy running the team, what a great matchup for the Bengals to get their first W of the season. The teaser gets them down to -1, which I’m confident they will cover. Score Prediction: Bengals 27 – Cowboys 13
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 1: 0-3 Overall, -2.5 Units Total)
Before I get into this week’s slate I have to address this absolute goose egg I threw up in week 1. Looks like we were just totally off the mark right? Not quite. 1) The Panthers game was some of the worst officiating I’ve ever seen in my life. That roughing the passer call against Burns was absurd and it set up the Browns ultimately game winning 58 yard field goal (you read that correctly… 58 yards). 2) Hackett has already admitted that the Broncos absolutely squandered the end of Monday night’s game… Growing pains of a new coach but the Broncos should have won that game. 3) Najee Harris got hurt. Not trying to make excuses here… well, I guess that’s actually exactly what I’m doing. Nothing but winners in week 2.
LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars/Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Chargers/Chiefs Total Points Over 41.5, Colts +3.5, Bengals Moneyline (-105) (1 unit)
Is this parlay partially due to some shell shock from week 1? Possibly. Is it also absolutely rock solid? No doubt.
This Chargers/Chiefs Thursday night matchup should be a shootout. Mahomes looks determined to prove his greatness was never dependent on the Cheetah and Herbert looks primed for another massive step forward in his career this season. Chargers are down Keenan Allen but they have enough depth out of their wide receiver group to make up for it/one of the better pass catching backs in the league (Ekeler). I’m only placing this total just under the magic number of 42 but I wouldn’t be surprised if this total slips into the 60s. Score Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Chargers 27.
I guarantee you that the Colts go on a rampage this week against the Jags after one of the more disappointing ties we’ve seen in awhile last week. How did they address the issue? They released fan favorite kicker (or I guess former fan favorite now) Rodrigo Blankenship this week after missing what would have been a game winning field goal in overtime and landing two different kickoffs out of bounds. One day you’re making the football world fall in love with your passion for legos… the next day you’re a free agent. Life comes at you fast, Rodrigo. Anyways, Taylor should run all over the Jags this weekend and this Colts defense should be hungry for revenge after playing below their standards last week in Houston. I’m expecting a blowout but I’m still going to buy 3.5 points on Indy given subpar debut out of Matt Ryan in week 1. Score Prediction: Colts 27 – Jaguars 17.
That Bengals game was hard to watch… just sloppy play all around. That said, I caution you not to place the blame on Joey B and to keep the Super Bowl slump into perspective (an aspect we successfully hedged for until Najee got hurt). The Bengals are still one of the best offenses in the league (even without Tee Higgins) and they’ll face a Dak-less Cowboys team that honestly looked pretty terrible even when Dak was still under center. Banking on another solid bounce back game here out of Cincy and taking advantage of the value before their lines start skyrocketing out of control again. Score Prediction: Bengals 31 – Cowboys 10.
Atlanta Falcons @ LA Rams/New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Rams Moneyline, Steelers +3.5 (+105) (1 unit)
Being very conservative only taking the Rams Moneyline here but they should smoke the Falcons this week at home… at least on paper. Stafford and company didn’t look great in week 1 but they were coming off a Super Bowl victory and playing against arguably the best team in the league right now. The Falcons showed a lot of resolve in week 1 but ultimately I don’t see how their game plan is sustainable. Aaron Donald should wreak havoc in the Atlanta backfield and expect to see the Stafford/Kupp connection on full display this weekend. Score Prediction: Rams 27 – Falcons 17.
I’m truly dumbfounded as to why the Patriots are favored to win this game rolling into the weekend… The Steelers just beat one of the best offenses in the league in their home stadium (triumphant win over the Bengals last week), their defense looks great (losing TJ Watt hurts, but they should be fine) and the Patriots looked awful in their opener. Not to mention, until recently it was looking like Mac Jones was going to miss some time with a back injury. I’m buying the 3.5 points to lay on the Steelers here to be safe but this is definitely a game I think they could/should win outright as well. Score Prediction: Steelers 20 – Patriots 13.
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