Brutal.. just brutal. I commend everyone who has watched all three rounds of this US Open because it’s been quite taxing on the psyche thus far. Side Hustle Bets unfortunately finished down 0.25 units on the day thanks to a 7 over par 77 from the wonder kid Collin Morikawa himself as well as a lackluster showing from the reigning PGA Champion Justin Thomas. That said, we’re still up +0.775 units for the tournament (9 profitable rounds out of 11) and our future bets are set up perfectly rolling into Sunday. 4 of our outright winner futures bets are within striking distance (if not tied for the lead currently), all of our props are still in play and best of all… Matthew Fitzpatrick is in prime position to fulfill his destiny (tied for the lead going into Sunday). I could go on and on about how we called this from this jump, but hey, if the US Open teaches you anything it’s humility so we’ll hold off… for now.
Enjoy our favorite bets for the most important round of the week, thanks for riding with us through yet another tumultuous major championship and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
4th Round Bets
4th Round Matchups
Justin Thomas (-175) (1 unit) vs Cameron Tringale
At the risk of looking stupid here I’m going to double down on JT to put together at least one impressive round this week. He really got the short end of the stick on Saturday after a terrible decision by an official not to grant him relief from a drainage area in the middle of the fairway which ended up causing him to chunk his approach shot and virtually derail his entire round from that point forward. If anything I’m willing to bet that Thomas is disappointed in himself for letting that occurence affect him enough to basically take him out of contention so I’m banking on a solid bounce back tomorrow to rid himself of some demons. Tringale bogied 4 out of his last 5 holes on Saturday and hasn’t posted a round better than 71 all week. JT should come out and smoke him tomorrow.
Scottie Scheffler (-165) (1 unit) vs Adam Hadwin
While I’m glad we threw Adam Hadwin into our prop bet for Top Canadian with Corey Conners, we still have to point out that he’s not nearly in the same league as world #1 Scottie Scheffler. Scottie fell off hard for a stretch of holes today but he made an important putt on the last hole of his round which should create some momentum for him to build off of heading into what is sure to be a volatile Sunday at Brookline. Hadwin didn’t even qualify for the US Open until only a few days prior which is a great story but I definitely feel much better backing the reigning Masters champion and best player in the world heading into the championship fray on Sunday.
Top 5 Finish – Keegan Bradley (+150) (0.5 units)
Keegan Bradley is playing on home turf currently and the crowd clearly loves him. The guy looked like a kid in a candy store when asked about the standing ovation he received today on 18 and let’s not forget… he is a major champion (he won the PGA Championship in 2011). He’s only 2 shots off the lead and he’s posted consistent numbers up to this point (70, 69, 69) so it feels like a smart call to bank on Bradley to ride the momentum of the crowd to at least hang around on Sunday. At +150 odds we’re comfortable placing half a unit on him to make things interesting for his home crowd tomorrow.
Top 5 Finish – Sam Burns (+175) (0.5 units)
Sam Burns has yet to break through at a major but this definitely feels like it could be his best chance yet. He’s flying under the radar right now but he posted a 67 on Friday and he showed considerable determination on Saturday to be able to post a 71 and remain only three shots off the lead. Don’t forget, Sam Burns is having a career season this year and he’s already won three times (most recently at the Charles Schwab Classic at the end of May). He’s fourth on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and he’s currently sitting in second place in the FedEx Cup Standings behind Scottie Scheffler. We absolutely can’t count him out to be a factor come crunch time tomorrow afternoon so 0.5 units at +175 odds just to finish inside the top 5 feels like a no brainer.
Winning Score Worse Than 6 Under Par (-110) (1 unit)
As we saw today, once the weather kicks up at The Country Club… so do the scores on the leaderboard. Shooting under par today felt like a phenomenal feat regardless of the player and we also saw some of the best players in the world simply fall apart for significant portions of their rounds (shout out Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler). The weather should only get worse tomorrow so couple the poor playing conditions along with the pressure of a US Open Sunday and it’s very unlikely you will get low scores. The current leaders are sitting at -4 and an even round would likely be ideal for either’s chances of taking home the US Open Championship Trophy (that’s right… that really is the name of the US Open trophy). Banking on the weather and competition to prevent players from going low so worse than 6 under par seems well within reach.
Playoff? – Yes (+400) (0.25 units)
The last three US Opens at The Country Club in Brookline, MA have been settled by playoffs and this year’s major feels like it could very well be headed in the same direction. No players have really separated themselves from the field whatsoever with the exception of a couple strokes here and there and the endless amount of trouble all over the course creates an atmosphere in which no one is ever safe and/or totally out of contention. At +400 odds and given the talent at the top of the leaderboard after Saturday, it feels foolish not to sprinkle 0.25 units on the likelihood of a playoff.
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