Wow, I feel like I played a round at the US Open myself today just watching the second round… Despite pretty much everything going wrong that could go wrong, we still finished +0.09 units on the day which leaves us at +1.025 units for the tournament after Friday (and profitable in 9 out of 10 majors rounds). Better news… 26 out of our 28 futures bets are still in play, every single one of our outright winner bets are within 4 shots of the leader currently (three are within 2 shots of the lead), only one of our Top 10 bets is actually outside of the top 10 as of now (he’s tied for 13th), all of our prop bets are still in play and our two tournament matchup bets basically cancelled each other out (shout out Daniel Berger for officially falling out of Side Hustle Bets’ good graces).
We’re in position to strike moving into the weekend and we have a good feel for who is capable of actually making a run at the title come Sunday. Don’t forget that the US Open is a war of attrition and sometimes a par (barely breaking even) is just as valuable as a birdie. Keep calm, trust the logic and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
3rd Round Bets
Moral of the story rolling into moving day is talent over trend. There’s quite a few names on the leaderboard who aren’t used to being atop leaderboards in general, much less at a major championship. We believe those individuals will more than likely fall back to earth on Saturday, especially when matched up against the best players in the world.
Given the lopsided matchups going into Saturday, we’re cherry picking straight up bets with odds worth taking and working a little magic of our own to back some of our favorites primed to make moves tomorrow. Remember, we’re in ideal position right now with our futures bets to capitalize at the end of the weekend so the goal Saturday is purely to take advantage of some value on the table and place ourselves in position A for Sunday.
3rd Round Matchups
Collin Morikawa (-175) (1 unit) vs Joel Dahmen
I’m not sold on Dahmen whatsoever and this is the best I’ve seen Morikawa play all year. I love a Cinderella story and Dahmen is apparently coming into the week on a hot streak but to consider “hot streaks” between these two players to be in the same stratosphere would be a grave miscalculation. Morikawa is leading the field currently but he could easily be in sole first place by 2-3 strokes at this point if it wasn’t for a handful of isolated poor swings/bad breaks… Dahmen just played quite possibly the most notable two rounds of his professional golf career over the past two days and he’s definitely had luck on his side along the way. I suspect Morikawa will continue to press the gas tomorrow and Dahmen will either stagnate or fold. This is also one of the only favorable matchups with odds digestible enough to take straight up with a full unit so we’re taking advantage while we can.
Justin Thomas (+300) (0.5 units) vs Jon Rahm
Given the odds here this is just too good to pass up. Justin Thomas has yet to have his trademark breakthrough round this week, he’s been battling impressively to get to this point and he has quite a bit more room to make up than Rahm tomorrow (aka… he’s got nothing to lose). Rahm’s passion this week has matched the volatility of his game and he’s only 1 shot off of the lead so I suspect him to try to rein it in a bit and ensure he has a shot at taking aim on Sunday. Any chance I get to throw half a unit at JT to do what he does best, get back into contention at a major championship, I’m going to jump at that opportunity all day long.
2 Way Parlay (+125) (1 unit): Scottie Scheffler vs Matthew NeSmith/Rory McIlroy vs Aaron Wise
I couldn’t feel stronger about Rory’s ambition to break through at a major again this week and Scottie holing out that eagle from the rough today seems to have awakened the beast we’ve grown accustomed to seeing this season. Neither player faces stiff competition tomorrow (NeSmith and Wise) and both understand what is required to win a major championship. Rory’s ability to rebound from two whiffs from the fescue today (well technically the ball moved but… you catch my drift) only to finish one shot off the lead shows absolutely absurd resolve. I knew it when he took a few hacks out of a sand trap on Thursday after mis-hitting a shot… Rory came to play this week and anything less than a trophy will be a bust for him. Scottie will surely be looking to add a US Open trophy to his incredible resume this season and I fully expect him to carry his momentum from Friday into the weekend. Aaron Wise is playing well right now but majors are an entirely different beast and it can’t be easy playing against the #1 player in the world. NeSmith has never won on tour before and I’m surprised he’s been able to position himself this well going into the weekend. Oh, and he’s a Gamecock… Bust written all over him.
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