Just another chaotic week for the greatest league in sports. This season has to have one of the most unexpected starts in recent memory from a disappointing start for a perennial powerhouse to dream starts for several teams at the bottom of the preseason power rankings. One thing’s for sure though, Q and DPJ have got your back.
Despite the crazy start, stay logical vs emotional and remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (5-4 Overall)
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos – Sunday, 10/3 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Ravens +1.5
This line is pretty surprising to me. I understand that the Broncos have a solid defense and they’re undefeated playing at home but still… The three teams the Broncos have beaten this year (Giants/Jags/Jets) have a combined record of 0-9 this season so far. That’s absurd. So to say this Broncos team is formidable, or that we even know much about them yet in general, seems like an overstep. I definitely feel more comfortable leaning towards the former NFL MVP/Chiefs slayer Lamar Jackson vs Teddy Bridgewater who’s missing multiple WRs. I’m going to take advantage of Vegas’ faith in the Broncos’ perfect record this season and take the Ravens with points.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 10/3 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Chiefs -5.5
While I’d be lying if I said I’m not surprised by the Chiefs start to the season, I think it’s worth mentioning the teams they’ve had to play so far. They squeaked out a win against the Browns week 1 who have arguably the best offensive line/run duo in the league, they lost to the Ravens in an instant classic in Baltimore and they let the game slip away against a possible MVP candidate in Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Teams are starting to embrace the concept that the only way to beat Mahomes is to keep the ball out of his hands (both the Ravens and Chargers won their respective games by converting huge 4th downs vs giving Mahomes a chance) but that’s only possible if you’re good enough to get a lead on him in the first place. While the Eagles do have a solid defense and the Chiefs offensive line has had its struggles, there’s just too many offensive weapons on this Chiefs offense for the Eagles to keep this one interesting. Mahomes is going to come out slinging it with a vengeance and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs win out from this point on (not to mention they’ll probably play with passion for Andy Reid given his recent hospitalization). Rolling with the Chiefs by two scores in this one with confidence.
Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams – Sunday, 10/3 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 52
Talk about two high flying offenses. The Cardinals are probably the most electric offense in the league right now and Matt Stafford fits like a glove into this new Rams offense. While both of these teams do have great defenses, both of these offenses have appeared defense proof thus far and I’m fully expecting a shootout here. These two teams are averaging a combined 33 points per game EACH through the first 3 weeks of the season… that’s stupid production. This divisional matchup will have heavy playoff implications and big players make big plays in big games so expect a high scoring nail biter that could very well result in OT. Not sure who comes out on top in this one but I do know it’ll be a team that puts up absolute POINTS.
DPJ’s Best Bets (8-4 Overall)
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, 10/3 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Browns -1.5 and Total Points Over 51
After a tough loss to open the season in Kansas City, the Browns got a couple of cupcakes and knocked off the Texans and Bears at home. They now get the pleasure of heading up to Minneapolis to face Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. I don’t have a ton of deep analysis here other than I think the Browns are the better team and I’m always ready for a Cousins let down game after a seemingly big win over the (overrated) Seahawks. The Browns should have no trouble running the ball, as they’ve done every game this season. And the Vikings should have a lot of trouble stopping the run…as they’ve done every game this season. I see this playing out in one of two ways (ideally the first way): (1) Browns get out to a big lead, cover the spread and Garbage Time Cousins covers the 51. (2) It’s a shootout, the 51 is easily covered and the Browns cover the spread at the end.
Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams – Sunday, 10/3 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Rams -4.5
Going to do my best to remove my homer bias here. Credit to me for not picking the Rams in a best bet so far this season. The Rams flat out look incredible right now. I do have some question marks about how good the defense really is, but they continue to make stops in both the red zone and crunch time. McVay has the offense humming like a Ferrari…Stafford is an MVP candidate and they just shit pumped Tom Brady’s Buccaneers. Typically I would think this is a let down spot after a big win over a team like Tampa, but I think McVay really has these guys dialed in and they don’t seem like they’re content with this early success. We all know how good this Cardinals team is…but I think the Rams scheme should be good enough to slow Kyler down. The only stat I will point to is the fact that Sean McVay has never lost to the Cardinals…never. Rams by a TD+.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, 10/3 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 52
After the Seahawks triumphant week 1 victory over the Colts I figured we were looking at a four horse race for 1st place in the NFC West this year. Two weeks later that appears to be incorrect. The Seahawks went on to lose 33-30 at home vs. Tennessee and 30-17 at Minnesota. That final score against the Vikings would have been much higher if the Seahawks didn’t go brain dead in the second half and put up a donut. Clearly their defense is gonna be a major problem just like last year, but the fire power on offense is absolutely still there (at least in the first 2 quarters). On the other side of the field, the 49ers defense has looked a bit questionable in spots but the offense should have no problem scoring on Seattle. Last year’s totals were 64 in week 8 and 49 in week 17 (after both teams were eliminated from playoffs). I like this early season battle to go well over 52 points on a sunny afternoon in Santa Clara.
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys – Sunday, 10/3 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 51
Both of these teams have looked very solid to start the year. However, Carolina was dealt a big blow with the loss of Christian McCaffery last week. Darnold has been getting a lot of praise through three weeks but I think the tides will turn a bit as defenses will be prepping for Sam more without his first team All-Pro running back by his side. I don’t fully expect a Carolina implosion, but I do see some regression and think they’ll need to continue to rely on the defense with CMC out. That defense should do a good enough job slowing down Dallas’ high power offense to keep this total under 50. There is also something about the Cowboys playing in the early slate (1pm ET/10am PT) that feels a little funky…I like this to be a close game and low scoring affair.
Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (1-4 Overall)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots – Sunday, 10/3 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Bucs -5.5
Can’t bet against Tom Brady in this reunion. October 3rd is all Tom Brady (and his father) have been talking about since this season’s schedule was announced and I’m fully expecting TB12 to come out and make Belichick feel the pain for letting him go/officially welcome Mac Jones to the league. I’d say this is a true ”the student has become the teacher” type scenario but Brady is 44 years old, which is older than 13 current NFL head coaches, so I feel like that saying has been played out for him for awhile now at this point. While I think Mac Jones is super talented and he will eventually dominate in the NFL, it’s hard to imagine the magnitude/sentimental nature of this game won’t affect his ability to perform. Imagine playing against Tiger in his prime on a Sunday on his home course… that’s the type of environment Jones will be facing on Sunday against, statistically, the greatest QB of all time. Expect TB12 and a super talented, defending Super Bowl Champion, Bucs squad to absolutely dominate in this one from start to finish. – Q
Other Action (11-16-2 Overall)
Titans @ Jets: Titans -7
Titans @ Jets: Total Points Under 48
Lions @ Bears: Lions +3
Colts @ Dolphins: Dolphins -1.5
WFT @ Falcons: WFT -1
Texans @ Bills: Total Points Under 48
Giants @ Saints: Saints -6.5
Chiefs @ Eagles: Total Points Under 55
Panthers @ Cowboys: Cowboys -4
Seahawks @ 49ers: 49ers -3
Steelers @ Packers: Packers -6.5
Steelers @ Packers: Total Points Under 47.5
Ravens @ Broncos: Total Points Over 44.5
Bucs @ Pats: Total Points Over 49
Raiders @ Chargers: Total Points Over 50
Cardinals @ Rams: Robert Woods Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-110 odds)
2 Team – 6 Point Teaser (-110 odds): Packers (-0.5), Lions (+9.5)
3 Team Parlay (-120 odds): Chiefs Money Line, Bucs Money Line, Bills Money Line
Risky Business (7-9 Overall; currently up 1.3 units)
4 Team – 6 Point Teaser (+260 odds): Cardinals (+10.5), Ravens (+7.5), Chiefs (+0.5), Bucs (+0.5)
Lions @ Bears: Lions Money Line (+125 odds)
Buccaneers @ Patriots: Tom Brady Over 2.5 Pass TDs (+125 odds)
Texans @ Bills: Josh Allen Over 2.5 Pass TDs (+130 odds)
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