Big money for the boys last week combining to go 5-3 for +1.85 units total in Week 8 NFL bets. For those of you keeping score, that means we finished close to +4 units overall when combined with our CFB bets for the week… all treats, no tricks. This betting thing gets dangerous for Vegas when certain individuals get hot. Always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 8: 10-13 Overall, -2.613 Units Total)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars/Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Raiders +7.5, Packers Moneyline (-105) (1 unit)
Regression back to the mean parlay for you this week.
This Raiders/Jaguars matchup is ripe for the picking. Teams coming off a London game without a bye are HORRENDOUS the week back to the states and 100% of them have been tied or losing in the 4th quarter in said following game (Jags are coming off a London loss last week). Little thing called jet lag folks. Factor #2, the Raiders got shut out last week. The Raiders have to be the most disappointing team in the league this year up to this point… No one foresaw a 2-5 start after adding superstar Davante Adams to the roster, but that doesn’t mean the talent’s not there (and to be honest Josh Jacobs has reemerged as an absolute star as of late). This is a “line in the sand” game for this franchise and it’s hard not to think they come out firing right out the gate. Neither defense is spectacular and Vegas takes the edge here in star factor on both sides of the ball. Hedging with the touchdown to be safe but expect Vegas to finally look like a half decent team this week against a Jags team that’s still out of whack from their trip across the pond last week. Score Prediction: Raiders 24 – Jaguars 20.
Man oh man am I nervous to back the Pack right now but it’s hard to conceptualize Aaron Rodgers losing this game. The Lions have the worst defense in the league, no doubt. Run game, pass game… really doesn’t matter this Detroit D is absolute trash and Goff just lost one of his favorite offensive targets on the other side of the ball (Hockenson was traded to the Vikings this week). Neither defense is spectacular but the Packers slightly outmatch the Lions on defense and it feels dumb to analyze a seemingly comparable overall offensive matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff. Big bounce back spot for the ayahuasca connoisseur this week in Detroit. Score Prediction: Packers 27 – Lions 23.
Buffalo Bills @ NY Jets/Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals/Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Bills -2.5, Seahawks +10.5, Colts/Patriots Total Points Under 47.5 (+105) (1 unit)
I’ll keep this breakdown short.
The Bills are probably the best team in the league and the Jets are now without their rookie stud RB Breece Hall for the rest of the season. I think the Jets are sneakily stingy on defense but it’s hard to say if any defense can stop this juggernaut offense right now and the Bills defense (who should get Von Miller back this week) should wreak havoc on Zach Wilson all day long. I’ll be very surprised if the Bills don’t comfortably win this one by at least a TD. Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Jets 17.
The Seahawks have been the surprise of the year and at this point we just have to accept that they’re actually good (that includes Geno). They should probably be favored in this game considering how inconsistent the Cardinals have been all season and I just don’t see D Hop making such a big difference that the Cardinals can run away with this one. Kenneth Walker > Eno Benjamin, Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf > D Hop, (this one’s hard to digest right now but STATISTICALLY this season so far) Geno > Kyler. No chance the Seahawks don’t at least keep this one close, and probably end up winning. Score Prediction: Seahawks 26 – Cardinals 24.
This Pats offense does not score points, this Colts offense does not score points (and will be missing Jonathan Taylor, Matt Ryan and Nyheim Hines (traded away this week)). Both defenses are stingy and the only reason their respective teams can compete in games late. I wouldn’t be surprised if this total ended up somewhere closer to the range of ~31-34. Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Colts 13.
Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints – Monday, 11/7 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Prop Parlay: Isaiah Likely 25+ Receiving Yards, Isaiah Likely Over 3.5 Receptions (+200) (1 unit)
Ask and you shall receive… solid Isaiah Likely prop parlay for you on this fine Monday night. With Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman both out with injuries that leaves the electric rookie TE as Lamar’s main target tonight. I don’t see this game being a blow out and the Saints are stingy against the run so the Ravens will have to air it out eventually, especially if they’re playing from behind. Likely filled in for Mark Andrews last week (who went out with ANOTHER injury) and he absolutely lit it up the Bucs (6 Receptions, 77 Receiving Yards, 1 TD). I can understand your concern behind backing a rookie TE vs this Saints secondary, but Isaiah Likely is no average rookie. If you’ve been following our CFB write ups, I’ve been bullish on this Coastal Carolina product since last year when he put up close to 1,000 yards receiving and 12 TDs in his final collegiate season alone… The guy is used to catching footballs and this shark got a sniff of blood in the water last week. Could be a big night for the youngster so 4 receptions for over 25 yards feels very much so within reach. Receiving Projection: 4.5 Receptions, 50.85 Receiving Yards.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 8: 14-19 Overall, -5.17 Units Total)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals – Sunday, 11/6 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Seahawks +2 (-110) (1 unit)
Seattle continues to be one of the biggest surprises in the ‘22 NFL season. Their projected win total was somewhere around 5 coming into the season, and here they sit at 5-3 after 8 weeks. Geno Smith has been a revelation, Kenneth Walker looks like a future top 5 fantasy pick, and Pete Carrol has been coaching his balls off. I think the good times continue to roll this week and I plan to continuously fade the Cardinals through the remainder of the season. I get nothing but bad vibes from this Cardinals team. I think the combo of Kyler and Kliff is a poison pill for any team, neither seems like a good leader which makes the Cards feel rudderless. I’m going to bank on the Seahawks gritting out another win here, and at the very least I like holding on to those two points. Score Prediction: Seahawks 24 – Cardinals 23.
LA Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, 11/6 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Chargers -3 (-110) (1 unit)
This Chargers team has been impossible to figure out this year. The coaching looks suspect, the injuries are piling up, but Justin Herbert is still an absolute weapon and I think he’s gonna put up an insane stat line on Sunday. The Chargers have the league’s 4th best passing offense (279 ypg) and the Falcons have the league’s worst passing defense. If I’m Brandon Staley I want Herbert throwing the ball 40+ times this game. Who cares that he’s throwing to guys no one has ever heard of before, they’re gonna be wide open. Austin Ekeler should get 10-15 of those targets too, another guy who is an absolute weapon. The Chargers defense does look suspect at times but I don’t think it will matter all that much in this one as the Falcons will struggle to keep up. Score Prediction: Chargers 30 – Falcons 24.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills @ NY Jets/Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals/Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: 4 Team Parlay: Patriots Moneyline, Bills Moneyline, Bengals Moneyline, Chiefs Moneyline (+140) (0.75 units)
I am going to boil each of these games down into two sentences. Long story short, I’m taking the money lines of the four biggest favorites. This is not rocket science.
Not a hot take in the slightest, Buffalo is in full blown wagon mode right now. The Jets defense may put up a fight but I don’t think Zach Wilson is remotely close to the point in his career where he can beat a team like the Bills. Score Prediction: Bills 31 – Jets 13.
The Patriots bounced back to a pretty ugly win over the Jets last week and I think this game could look fairly similar as they take on Sam Ehlinger’s Colts. Billy B notoriously crushes novice QBs in Foxboro and this should be much of the same. Score Prediction: Patriots 23 – Colts 11.
The Bengals were embarrassed on MNF in Cleveland and Joe Burrow is the ultimate bounceback QB, and I don’t expect him to struggle with the Panthers. The PJ Walker and Foreman show has been fun but I think it’s time they come back to earth. Score Prediction: Bengals 27 – Panthers 17.
Malik Willis is on track for another start this week and it will be much harder for Derrick Henry to save him like he did last week vs Houston. You need to be able to pass the ball to beat Mahomes, you’d think that is common sense but you never know these days. Score Prediction: Chiefs 28 – Titans 19.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, 11/6 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Raiders -1.5 (-110) (1 unit)
If the Raiders have a single ounce of pride they will come into Jacksonville fighting for their life and resoundingly beat the Jags. The team from Las Vegas was absolutely embarrassed last week putting up a donut against the Saints. I don’t know if that is all on Carr or McDaniels but that was one of the worst offensive performances I’ve ever seen in the modern NFL. Luckily they have been afforded a great bounce-back game, and that is what NFL teams do best, it’s a week-to-week league after all. It’s absurd to think that they are even favored in a game after that ass whooping in NOLA last week. The Jags flew back from London this week and I’m sure they’re just happy to be sleeping in their beds and not eating baked beans and tomatoes for breakfast. Etienne will probably have some nice runs but I think that’ll be the short list of positives for the Jags. Score Prediction: Raiders 24 – Jaguars 20.
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