What. A. Finish. Pereira caved to the pressure of Sunday (just like we predicted), Rory made a run that fell just short (just like we predicted), Rahm made up some ground on the field and our boy JT came through for us in the clutch to cap off one of the more stressful majors in recent memory.
We’ll lead with the bad news, we finished the tournament down 2.106 units… It’s never fun finishing in the red but there’s quite a few positives to take away from this week/our performance in majors thus far.
- We’ve finished in the green for 7 out of the 8 major rounds we’ve bet on at this point. That’s a success rate of 87.5% and I will take that number ALL DAY LONG.
- We’ve picked the outright winner in both the Masters and the PGA Championship. That’s a 100% success rate and we’ve netted +4.5 units betting on outright winners alone.
- Our average winning bet this week was ~0.9255 units and our average losing bet was ~0.8129 units. That’s called following our “base hits > home runs” policy to a T…
- Don’t let the final numbers fool you, we were very close to another big week. 9 different bets missed the mark by just 2 strokes or less throughout the tournament for a total of almost 10 additional units… Check out the table below to see the main culprits.
- Take a look below at our underdog picks for this week… The worst finishing position out of all 4 players was tied for 23rd and their average finishing position was 10.75… That’s what I call finding some diamonds in the rough.
- We’re currently +18.825 units in majors this season. Assuming an average unit of $100, that’s $1,882.50 that Side Hustle Bets has made you this year on golf alone. For the bigger risk takers out there using an average unit of $1,000, that’s $18,825.00 in the last two months… You’re welcome.
Missed It By That Much…
| Bet | Odds | Wager | Payout | Strokes Away From Success | Possible Payout |
| Top 20: Shane Lowry | +120 | 1 unit | -1 unit | 1 shot | 1.2 units |
| 2nd Round Matchup: Rory McIlroy vs Jordan Spieth vs Tiger Woods | McIlroy (+110)/Spieth (+135) | McIlroy (0.57 units)/Spieth (0.43 units) | -1 unit | 1 shot | 0.0105-0.197 units |
| 2nd Round Prop: Hideki Matsuyama – To Shoot Under 71.5 | -110 | 1 unit | -1 unit | 1 shot | 0.91 units |
| 2nd Round Matchup: Joaquin Niemann vs Harry Higgs vs Erik Van Rooyen | Niemann (+100) | 1 | 0 units | 1 shot | 1 unit |
| Top Australian: Cameron Smith | +175 | 0.5 units | 0 units | 1 shot | 0.875 units |
| Top 30: Viktor Hovland | -135 | 1 unit | -1 unit | 2 shots | 0.74 units |
| Tournament Matchup: Joaquin Niemann vs Sam Burns vs Seamus Power | Niemann (+150)/Burns (+160) | Niemann (0.5 units)/Burns (0.5 units) | -1 unit | 2 shots | 0.25-0.3 units |
| 1st Round Top 20: Scottie Scheffler | +170 | 0.85 units | -0.85 units | 2 shots | 1.445 units |
| Top Continental European: Viktor Hovland | +310 | 1 unit | -1 unit | 2 shots | 3.1 units |
| 9.5305-9.767 units |
Our Underdogs This Week
| Player | Finishing Position |
| Xander Schauffele | T13 |
| Shane Lowry | T23 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | T5 |
| Will Zalatoris | 2nd (playoff) |
Our logic is clearly working, we learn more from our failures than from our successes and we can’t wait to get to work on the US Open in June. Expect big things from Side Hustle Bets next month and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Lessons Learned
Weather conditions can absolutely turn a major on its head. The disparity in weather conditions on Thursday and Friday were extremely frustrating to watch, especially considering that it seemed to affect our favorite “favorites” in the tournament the most. When weather conditions are poor enough to affect quality of play across the field it opens things up for the sleepers to have a fighting chance at a title. That definitely was a major factor this week (pun intended) and we’re just thankful that our guy JT was able to persevere through the home stretch.
Patrick Cantlay still has the majors monkey hanging off his back and at this point it’s unclear if we can invest anymore wagers on him until he’s proven that he can overcome it. Sure, he had to deal with unfair weather conditions compared to the rest of the field on Thursday and Friday. You know who else in his pairing on those days had to deal with those conditions? Justin Thomas. Cantlay’s problem in majors is clearly mental by nature which is terrifying for sports betting considering how difficult of a variable that is to quantify. Sorry Patrick, you’re officially in our majors hot seat for the foreseeable future.
Matt Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris are going to win a tournament soon, if not a major. Fitzpatrick was one of our favorite sleepers coming into the tournament this week and he clearly proved that he’s playing at an elite level right now. He’s already won 7 times internationally, he played very consistently at the PGA Championship with the exception of Sunday (even though he still displayed impressive scrambling/short game abilities on Sunday as well) and he thrives on difficult courses. We said Zalatoris is just a putting improvement away from greatness coming into this week… Well he must read our articles as well because he putted lights out this week and found himself in a playoff with Justin Thomas to win it all. Obviously he ended up falling just short but I associate that loss with JT’s greatness more than Zalatoris’ shortcomings. Both of these guys are due to hoist a trophy any day now and once they break that seal expect a flurry of victories to follow.
There’s a great chance that Tiger’s injuries are going to remove him as a true contender in majors for the foreseeable future. I hate to say it but he’s definitely become a player shooting to make cuts vs win championships at this point given his physical limitations. It sucks to watch him limping around the course using his driver but it’s obviously super inspiring to watch as well. After withdrawing from the tournament after his third round on Saturday we don’t feel as though we can truly trust his odds in future majors until he shows significant physical improvement unfortunately.
Rory is good for at least one blow up round and one round that challenges the course record regardless of what major he’s playing in. The guy might be the most talented player on tour but consistency is unfortunately not his strong suit. Rory is one of our favorite bounce back players after a poor round and he tends to ultimately finish strong as far as future finishing position bets but he’s not one to trust day in/day out.
Young players who find themselves in position to contend for major championships for the first time in their careers have to be viewed as guilty before proven innocent. As highlighted by Mito Pereira’s breakdown during his final round on Sunday, experience in majors comes at an undeniable premium. I thought Pereira’s post round interview showcased a ton of class from the Chilean and he’ll undoubtedly obtain invaluable knowledge from this experience but I don’t expect his failures on Sunday to be atypical compared to other young/inexperienced players in the future who find themselves in similar positions at majors.
Scottie Scheffler is human. We witnessed a side of Scottie this week that we’ve never seen before. He looked flustered, frustrated and lacking control of his game in pretty much every facet. It will be important to see how Scottie bounces back before the US Open since his mental game clearly isn’t impenetrable after missing the cut this week at his favorite golf course on Earth… He’s obviously had an exceptional season so far so time will tell if we witnessed burnout this week or simply a bump in the road on his path to multiple major championship victories this year.
Cameron Smith lights it up in the first round of majors no matter what state his overall game is in at the time. He didn’t look terrible this week but he’s definitely lost some of the steam he had after winning the Players and rolling into the Masters last month. That said, he starts FAST and you can expect to see him featured in many of our First Round Top 10/20 bets in the future. If he can cut down on the volatility of his game (leads the tour in birdie average but he also is good for at least 4-5 bogeys.. or higher… per round) then he can start running away with majors.
Hits
| Bet | Odds | Wager | Payout |
| Outright Winner: Justin Thomas | +1600 | 0.2 units | 3.2 units |
| Top 10: Justin Thomas | +190 | 0.75 units | 1.425 units |
| Top 20: Justin Thomas | -110 | 1 unit | 0.91 units |
| Top 20: Rory McIlroy | -110 | 1 unit | 0.91 units |
| Top 20: Xander Schauffele | +125 | 1 unit | 1.25 units |
| Top 30: Justin Thomas | -160 | 1 unit | 0.63 units |
| Top 30: Cameron Smith | -155 | 1 unit | 0.65 units |
| Top 30: Xander Schauffele | -140 | 1 unit | 0.71 units |
| Top 30: Will Zalatoris | -140 | 1 unit | 0.71 units |
| Top 30: Shane Lowry | -135 | 1 unit | 0.74 units |
| Top 30: Matt Fitzpatrick | -120 | 1 unit | 0.83 units |
| Top 40: Will Zalatoris | -165 | 1 unit | 0.61 units |
| Top 40: Joaquin Niemann | -140 | 1 unit | 0.71 units |
| Top 40: Matt Fitzpatrick | -140 | 1 unit | 0.71 units |
| Make The Cut: Tiger Woods | -110 | 1 unit | 0.91 units |
| 1st Round Matchup: Billy Horschel vs Tommy Fleetwood vs Kevin Kisner | Horschel (+160)/Fleetwood (+190) | Horschel (0.64 units)/Fleetwood (0.36 units) | 0.044 units |
| 1st Round Matchup: Jordan Spieth vs Rory McIlroy vs Tiger Woods | Spieth (+145)/McIlroy (+145) | Spieth (0.5 units)/McIlroy (0.5 units) | 0.225 units |
| 1st Round Matchup: Russell Henley vs Zach Johnson vs Cameron Champ | Henley (+145)/Champ (+190) | Henley (0.82 units)/Champ (0.18 units) | 1.009 units |
| 1st Round Matchup: Joaquin Niemann vs Harry Higgs vs Erik Van Rooyen | Niemann (-110) | 1 unit | 0.91 units |
| 1st Round Top 20: Cameron Smith | +220 | 0.5 units | 1.1 units |
| 2nd Round Matchup: Russell Henley vs Cameron Champ vs Zach Johnson | Henley (+130)/Champ (+175) | Henley (0.87 units)/Champ (0.13 units) | 1.001 units |
| 3rd Round Matchup: Shane Lowry vs Jordan Spieth | Lowry (+100) | 1 unit | 1 unit |
| 3rd Round Matchup: Matt Fitzpatrick vs Tyrrell Hatton | Fitzpatrick (-110) | 1 unit | 0.91 units |
| 4th Round Matchup Parlay: Jon Rahm/Rory McIlroy | +110 | 1 unit | 1.1 units |
| 4th Round Matchup: Matt Fitzpatrick vs Mito Pereira | Fitzpatrick (-135) | 1 unit | 0.74 units |
| 4th Round Prop: Justin Thomas – To Shoot Under 70.5 | +130 | 1 unit | 1.3 units |
| Top Scandinavian: Viktor Hovland | -150 | 1 unit | 0.67 units |
| Top Irish: Rory McIlroy | 100 | 1 unit | 1 unit |
| 25.914 units |
Misses
| Bet | Odds | Wager | Payout |
| Outright Winner: Scottie Scheffler | +1200 | 0.2 units | -0.2 units |
| Outright Winner: Jon Rahm | +1200 | 0.2 units | -0.2 units |
| Outright Winner: Collin Morikawa | +1600 | 0.2 units | -0.2 units |
| Outright Winner: Patrick Cantlay | +2200 | 0.2 units | -0.2 units |
| Outright Winner: Rory McIlroy | +350 | 0.5 units | -0.5 units |
| Top 10: Jon Rahm | +150 | 0.75 units | -0.75 units |
| Top 10: Scottie Scheffler | +160 | 0.75 units | -0.75 units |
| Top 10: Collin Morikawa | +210 | 0.75 units | -0.75 units |
| Top 20: Jon Rahm | -140 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 20: Scottie Scheffler | -135 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 20: Collin Morikawa | -105 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 20: Patrick Cantlay | +105 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 20: Shane Lowry | +120 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 30: Collin Morikawa | -175 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 30: Patrick Cantlay | -165 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 30: Scottie Scheffler | -160 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 30: Viktor Hovland | -135 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 30: Hideki Matsuyama | -115 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 40: Hideki Matsuyama | -170 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top 40: Daniel Berger | -135 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Tournament Matchup: Joaquin Niemann vs Sam Burns vs Seamus Power | Niemann (+150)/Burns (+160) | Niemann (0.5 units)/Burns (0.5 units) | -1 unit |
| 1st Round Top 10: Patrick Cantlay | +450 | 0.25 units | -0.25 units |
| 1st Round Top 20: Patrick Cantlay | +220 | 0.5 units | -0.5 units |
| 1st Round Top 20: Scottie Scheffler | +170 | 0.85 units | -0.85 units |
| 1st Round Top 20: Hideki Matsuyama | +260 | 0.5 units | -0.5 units |
| 2nd Round Matchup: Rory McIlroy vs Jordan Spieth vs Tiger Woods | McIlroy (+110)/Spieth (+135) | McIlroy (0.57 units)/Spieth (0.43 units) | -1 unit |
| 2nd Round Prop: Scottie Scheffler – To Shoot Under 71.5 | -120 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| 2nd Round Prop: Hideki Matsuyama – To Shoot Under 71.5 | -110 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| 3rd Round Prop: Will Zalatoris – To Shoot Under 70.5 | +125 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| 4th Round Matchup Parlay: Collin Morikawa/Russell Henley | +125 | 0.8 units | -0.8 units |
| Top South American: Joaquin Niemann | -145 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top Continental European: Jon Rahm | +150 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top Continental European: Viktor Hovland | +310 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top Asian: Hideki Matsuyama | +165 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| Top Irish: Shane Lowry | +170 | 1 unit | -1 unit |
| -28.45 units |
Pushes
| Bet | Odds | Wager | Payout |
| 2nd Round Matchup: Joaquin Niemann vs Harry Higgs vs Erik Van Rooyen | Niemann (+100) | 1 | 0 units |
| Top Australian: Cameron Smith | 175 | 0.5 units | 0 units |
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