I feel like I’m living in an episode of the Twilight Zone watching this major. It’s like the entire field has been exposed to a bogey virus and only players without a major championship victory (or any PGA victories in general)/players over the age of 35 are immune… Sometimes the stars just seem to align to set the stage for a first time major championship winner and between the disparity in playing conditions on Thursday/Friday and the lack of low scores on moving day today, there’s a very solid chance that’s what’s in store for us tomorrow.
Despite the unlikely results up to this point, we’re doubling down on our general logic as we roll into Sunday and focusing on mismatches. Most of the best players in the world are probably out of contention at this point but that doesn’t mean that they won’t put together a solid round on Sunday to cut down on the collateral damage. We finished +0.91 units on the day Saturday which puts our total at +1.439 units for the tournament.
Hope for chaos tomorrow, count on Mito Pereira’s lack of sleep tonight to pay off for us on Sunday and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
4th Round Bets
4th Round Matchups
Matt Fitzpatrick (-135) (1 unit) vs Mito Pereira
Love this matchup. Fitzpatrick currently sits 3 shots back of the leader (Pereira) and he’s posted three consecutive rounds under par (68, 69, 67). He’s done all of this despite pulling the unlucky side of the draw to start his tournament from a weather conditions perspective (Thursday afternoon/Friday morning) and his putts finally started dropping on Saturday (as we predicted). Pereira on the other hand is playing in only his second major tournament ever, the over/under on his sleep tonight has to be about 2.5 hours and he was fortunate enough to play with the more favorable weather conditions of the group on Thursday and Friday. This play is both a Pereira fade as it is a testament to how strongly we feel about Fitzpatrick going into Sunday.
4th Round Parlays
2 Player Parlay (+110) (1 unit): Jon Rahm vs Justin Harding/Rory McIlroy vs Adri Arnaus
If you looked at these two matchups at the start of the tournament you’d laugh. Jon Rahm is the second best player in the world currently and Rory McIlroy almost broke a PGA Championship low round record on Thursday (not to mention he might be the greatest driver of the golf ball we’ve ever seen). Normally I don’t like parlaying golf matchups but these seem like can’t miss plays. Rory will undoubtedly make a run on Sunday that will more than likely fall just short and Rahm has some frustration to take out on this course. Justin Harding is the 106th player in the world and Adri Arnaus doesn’t even have a profile picture on PGA’s website… Enough said.
2 Player Parlay (+125) (0.8 units): Collin Morikawa vs Kevin Streelman/Russell Henley vs Rikuya Hishino
These plays are relatively simple as well. Morikawa and Henley both pulled the short end of the stick in regards to their weather conditions on Thursday and Friday and both players posted scores close to if not equal to their matchup opponents on Sunday. Morikawa has had a disappointing showing thus far and I’m sure he’s looking to rectify some wrongs… Henley has played well other than a lackluster +3 performance on Friday that’s taken him out of contention. Streelman and Hoshino and probably just excited to be playing the weekend.
4th Round Props
Justin Thomas – To Shoot Under 70.5 (+130) (1 unit): I’m expecting chaos tomorrow and who better to stir the pot than JT? Other than a disappointing +4 performance on Saturday, Thomas was putting up some of the most consistent numbers in the entire field (back to back 67s on Thursday and Friday). Will he need some help to contend? Yes. Has this course proven itself a worthy opponent for the best players in the world this week? Absolutely. Have crazier things happened? No question. While I recognize it might be a long shot for Justin Thomas to actually win this tournament outright at this point, I definitely don’t think it’s a long shot for him to put some pressure on those last few groups. He has a 63.64% consistency rate of improving his position on Sundays so, odds are, he puts up a respectable number that makes the leaders sweat a little bit.
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