What. A. Ride. DPJ and I listed 152 bets for CFB and 387 bets for the NFL this season (539 bets total)… Now that’s what I call volume! Our college football and NFL bets had one thing in common, both finished strong! We were able to go 20-15 (57.14%) when picking bowl game outcomes and we pulled off probably the most successful Super Bowl wagering I’ve ever seen (13-3 combined for our individual best bets…*cough* +8.6 units *cough*… and 10-2 combined for our game breakdown bets). DPJ went on an absolute tear for the NFL and finished over 50% for his individual best bets for both (52.78% for CFB and 59.32% for NFL… THAT’S SOME SHARP ACTION RIGHT THERE). We were able to combine our total individual best bets to finish 76-60 on the season (55.88%). Not too shabby… Not too shabby whatsoever… Thanks for taking the journey with us this season, enjoy the season stats we put together for you and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
DPJ’s 2021-2022 Season Lessons Learned
Season Recap: It pains me to write this, we are now in no man’s land with six months until football is back. What a glorious football season we just got to enjoy, both as a leisurely fan and as a degenerate with our gambling picks. Q and I both finished > .500 in the NFL and had a furious end to the season. My Rams are Super Bowl Champs. And I was even able to cash some future bets that I gave out earlier in the season. Football is fun, very fun.
CFB: Quite honestly I did not learn a ton about College Football this year other than don’t trust the early season nonsense. Pre-season rankings are garbage, you also can’t gather any important discernible facts out of the first couple weeks, just trust your gut and hope you survive at > 50% until conference play begins. I also plan to significantly increase my volume in CFB next season. The sport is so goddamn volatile that I need more picks on my card to balance out the swings each week. Lastly, I will not at all be deterred on Saban and the Crimson Tide after their loss to UGA this year. Expect me to pick Bama in every big spot imaginable until I’m broke and in a ditch.
NFL: Lesson #1: be careful with your teasers. For far too long I have leaned too heavily on teasers and it has bit me in the ass. There is certainly a time and place for teasers, but sometimes you just have to nut up and take the spread or total and run into the fire head first [insert elmo meme.gif]. I feel like this is what led to my near 60% win rate in the NFL this year. I used teasers less and less as the season progressed and it paid off. Lesson #2: If it smells like a rat, it’s probably a rat. Hand up, I got suckered into too many rat lines this year. Picking favorites with too large of spreads that the public loves…recipe for disaster. There is always value in the dog and fading the public. This could very well be wrong but if memory serves I think Dogs beat Favorites by 10+ games over the whole season in ‘21/22. When in doubt, ride the dog, even if it’s an ugly dog. Lesson #3: Always bet on Dan Campbell’s underdog Lions. As I write this now, it appears Dan Campbell is staying as head coach of the Lions. Incredible. Those underdog Lions were 11-6 ATS last year! I will keep riding that wave until it crashes.
NFL Futures: Back in July of 2021, I gave out some of my favorite futures bets. Notably: Rams to win the NFC +550 (CASH), Rams to win the NFC West +180 (CASH). I was very close on my Chiefs to win the AFC bet…and without a Mahomes choke that would be another CASH. Josh Allen did not win MVP but I like the vision I had there. You can’t win ’em all. so overall I’ll take it. I will be giving more winners out next year so look for another rendition of Jake’s Crystal Ball toward the end of the summer.
NFL Playoff Challenge – Victory Team Lowry (again): When will Q learn his lesson…you come for the King you better not miss. Yes, I did just refer to myself as the King in the third person. What started out as a fun little NFL playoff challenge between Q and I turned into quite a stressful event. We took turns drafting playoff teams, and whoever picked the SB winner was safe from the punishment. What was the punishment, you might ask? The loser has to walk an entire marathon over the course of the weekend. That might be easy for a fit/in-shape person, but for me and Q that sounds like hell. Naturally both of our first couple picks got eliminated and we ended up with the Rams (me) vs Bengals (Q) in the big dance. Not only did the Rams cash me a huge future, a best bet, and bring me lots of joy as my favorite NFL team, but now I get to watch Q’s misery from a far as he walks a marathon. At least he can burn off some of those Taco Bell calories.
Q’s 2021-2022 Season Lessons Learned
CFB: At the end of the day, you’re betting on children here. Just like how any NFL team can win a game on any given Sunday, any college football powerhouse can decide not to show up any week of the season for literally any reason under the sun (pressure, schoolwork, NIL deals, etc.). College football is also super top heavy and one player can make all the difference in the outcome of any game. Because of this volatility, it’s smart to limit the number of prop bets you take on individual players as much as possible (my downfall this CFB season). Teasers and underdog spreads/money lines are the name of the game when it comes to college football. Be sure to pay attention to the logistics of the game (day of the week/time it’s being played, the home team’s historical performance at home and vice versa, weather, etc.), historical coaching data and schedule trends (both who a team’s beaten as well as who they will face in the future). Always remember that the trap bets you’re able to avoid taking are just as valuable as your bets that actually hit. That concept is essential when it comes to betting on college football.
NFL: There’s nothing more pure than NFL sports betting. The massive amounts of data available and the validity/consistency of that data due to the maturity of the players (they’re actual professionals) makes it much easier to identify trends and calculate accurate projections. The statistical “early bird” truly does get the worm when it comes to betting on NFL games. The main pitfalls for betting on the NFL come with complacency in regards to the teams you are used to betting on (division leaders, Super Bowl favorites, etc.) and building out teasers/parlays with too many legs. While the historical data available for the NFL is much more reliable than that of college football, it’s important to remember that EVERY single player in the NFL is one of the greatest football players in the entire world. Keeping that in mind, any NFL team can truly beat any other NFL team on a weekly basis so you can’t just parlay the money lines for the largest favorites of the week and expect long term success. Injuries are huge, especially on defense, and there’s really no reason to tease any totals for the NFL given the fact that straight over and under bets have hit ~50% each over the last 20 years (so you’re not gaining much value by adding the additional buffer). Focus on placing your action on teams with the most value on a week to week basis vs just the best overall teams in the league in general. The massive amounts of data available for the NFL can be a double-edged sword, especially towards the beginning of the season. Temper your wagering appetites to only the bets with the most value per week, don’t allow your individual fandom to get in the way and always take a “trust but verify” approach when it comes to the “hot takes” you uncover along the way. If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.
2021-2022 NFL Season Winning Percentages
NFL Season Cliffnotes
|BET TYPE||FINAL RECORD||FINAL WINNING %||AVERAGE WINNING %||BEST WEEK|
|Q||41-36||53.25%||52.65%||Super Bowl: 11-3 (~79%)|
|DPJ||35-24||59.32%||57.56%||Week 19 – 20: 6-0 (100%)|
|BEST OF BEST||15-20||42.86%||32.09%||Week 11 – 14: 5-0 (100%)|
|OTHER ACTION||68-63-4||51.91%||48.99%||Week 7: 7-4-1 (~64%)|
|RISKY BUSINESS||27-54||33.33%||39.64%||Week 2: 3-1 (75%)|
|TOTAL EXCLUDING RISKY BIZ||159-143-4||52.65%||49.08%||Super Bowl: 159-143-4 (52.65%)|
Super Bowl Success Rates
|BETTOR||GAME BREAKDOWN BETS||BEST BETS|
|Q||6-0||11-3 (Up ~6.8 units)|
|DPJ||4-2||2-0 (Up ~1.8 units)|
|Combined||10-2||13-3 (Up ~8.6 units)|
2021-2022 CFB Season Winning Percentages
CFB Season Cliffnotes
|BET TYPE||FINAL RECORD||FINAL WINNING %||AVERAGE WINNING %||BEST WEEK|
|Q||18-22||45.00%||40.72%||Week 5: 3-0 (100%)|
|DPJ||19-17-1||52.78%||45.84%||Week 10 – 12: 5-1 (~83%)|
|BEST OF BEST||13-15||46.43%||35.82%||Week 7 – 11: 7-1 (87.5%)|
|OTHER ACTION||10-12||45.45%||44.60%||Week 12 – 13: 3-1 (75%)|
|RISKY BUSINESS||5-20||20.00%||15.90%||Week 8: 2-0 (100%)|
|TOTAL EXCLUDING RISKY BIZ||60-66-1||47.62%||41.30%||Week 16: 51-53-1 (49.04%)|
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