NFL Divisional Week Bets

Divisional week matchups don’t get much juicier than this year’s postseason. The spreads this week are the lowest in Divisional Championship history and they feature true challenges for both 1 seeds, a powerhouse rematch and basically the AFC Championship a week early. Given the fact that there’s only four games this week, DPJ and I figured we’d give you our full breakdown on every game along with how we expect each one to play out. Per usual, we listed out our favorite bets of the week towards the end of the article. Enjoy what’s making out to be a truly great weekend of football and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Divisional Week Breakdowns:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans – Saturday, 1/22 (4:30 PM EST)

Money Line: Bengals (+160 odds)
Spread: Bengals +4
Total: Under 47.5 Points
Projected Score: Bengals 23, Titans 17
Breakdown: Before I get into this breakdown, what a slate of playoff games we have this weekend. Not only are the spreads all tight but you will come to learn that I am loving all the dogs this week. We start in Nashville where the Titans come off a bye to take on Joe Burrow’s Bengals. I don’t think it’s much of a hot take to say the Titans are one of the worst 1 seeds in recent memory. I have not been on board with them for this entire season and I am still not hopping on that bandwagon. This game is going to start and end with Joe Burrow outplaying Ryan Tannehill. Sure, the Titans might be getting Derrick Henry back, but who the hell knows what type of shape he’s in and he has to deal with Cincy’s stout run defense that allowed only 102.5 yds per game, good for 5th best in the league. The Bengals are going to force Tannehill to beat them, and I like my chances there. This feels like a tight game down to the wire and Cincy getting three and a half points is just too much to pass up.

Money Line: Titans (-170 odds)
Spread: Titans -3 (-120 odds)
Total: Under 47.5 Points
Projected Score: Titans 24, Bengals 20
Breakdown: People are sleeping on the Titans, plain and simple. You can’t underestimate the value of a 1st round bye in the playoffs and home field advantage. The Titans should be well rested, finally healthy for the most part (the King is back and AJ Brown/Julio Jones should be healthy for one of the first times all season) and they’re going up against a young team that lacks playoff experience. I love watching the Bengals as of late, but I think this shooting star burns out in Nashville this weekend. Cincinnati’s young squad has looked electric recently but they’ve only played 6 defenses all year that have allowed less than 375 points in the regular season (~22 points/game) and that includes their wildcard win against the Raiders last week. Out of those 6 teams they were 2-4… that’s less than ideal. The Titans allowed 354 points in the regular season (slightly less than 21 points/game), they outmatch Cincinnati in both the run and the pass game and they’re led by one of the most beloved players’ coaches in the league right now (one with playoff/championship experience as a player himself). The Titans offense and Bengals defense are pretty evenly matched over the span of the season up to this point… but without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones in the lineup. AJ Brown is finally healthy enough to wreak havoc on secondaries, Julio Jones should only create more space for AJ and last but absolutely not least… THE KING IS BACK. Derrick Henry at even 75% is lethal enough to change the entire dynamic of a game. Taking the home (and well rested) favorites in this one. Fun fact about the Bengals, they have one of the worst 1st Quarter DVOA in the league. That means that the Bengals defense tends to take awhile to get going and there’s a great chance that the Titans get out to an early lead (hence my Titans 1st Quarter Money Line bet). Music City should be popping this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers – Saturday, 1/22 (8:15 PM EST)

Money Line: 49ers (+205 odds)
Spread: 49ers +6
Total: Under 48 Points
Projected Score: 49ers 24, Packers 21
Breakdown: A late January playoff game in Green Bay is about as good as it gets for NFL fans. There will be plenty of shirtless, beared, overweight, pasty white males chugging beers and screaming for their Packers. Sadly, I think they will be going home disappointed after Deebo Samuel’s 49ers put on another masterful performance in Green Bay. Yes, I said Deebo Samuel’s 49ers, and I am aware that Jimmy G exists. The 49ers have done enough on multiple occasions this year to prove to me that they can win in spite of some Jimmy miscues. I also know that Shanahan always comes with a rock solid game plan against A-Rod and his old buddy LaFleur. Elijah Mitchell has been running like a horse and the 49ers are built on both sides of the ball like a team who can march into Green Bay and beat the Packers. Rodgers typically prefers to lose in the NFC Championship game but I think he bows out of the playoffs early after an L in the Divisional round.

Money Line: Packers (-225 odds)
Spread: 49ers +7.5 (-140 odds)
Total: Under 48 Points
Projected Score: Packers 24, 49ers 23
Breakdown: The spread for this game right now is enticing to say the least. I think this game is closer to a pick’em currently with a slight edge to Green Bay due to their extra rest (1st round bye) and home field advantage (the weather should be frigid… Jimmy G has very little experience playing in cold weather and Rodgers has made a career out of it). That said, I’m jumping all over San Francisco and the points for multiple reasons. The 49ers have one of the only defenses in the league that can truly match up with the Packers offense and it looks like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner won’t miss any time after scares in last week’s Wildcard game against the Cowboys. The Packers defense is regaining some veterans for this matchup but most of them have played little to none of the regular season and are bound to be shaking off some cobwebs in a sub 10 degree playoff atmosphere. It’s also important to note that the last time these two teams squared off this year the Packers pulled away victorious 30-28 but it required some late game heroics from Rodgers. The 49ers are a much better team now than they were in September and I’m fully expecting a true nail biter if not a 1 seed upset. 

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday, 1/23 (3:00 PM EST)

Money Line: Rams (+125 odds)
Spread: Rams +3
Total: Over 48 Points
Projected Score: Rams 30, Buccaneers 24
Breakdown: Just in case this is your first time reading my writing (which it certainly will not be your last) I have been a lifelong Rams fan for six years (when they moved to LA) and will do my best to remove my bias from this prediction. The Rams won the week 3 Super Bowl when they beat the dicks off of the Bucs in SoFi and while I was pleased at the time I knew we would see them again in the playoffs, probably in Tampa Bay. Here we are many weeks later and quite honestly I think we could be looking at a very similar result. The Rams defense has been looking better and better, week after week, meanwhile I have seemingly lost a lot of confidence in the Bucs through the end of the season. They got Gronk back but lost AB, Godwin, their backfield is banged up, and now so is their offensive line. The Rams front seven, particularly their front four with Donald, Gaines, Miller and Floyd could have Brady running (or laying down) with his life on the line every play. Simply put, I just don’t think this Bucs team is nearly as good as last year. They clearly should have brought in some fresher or younger blood to this roster instead of returning every starter who played a full season + playoffs and a superbowl last year. That’s a lot of games. Rams win this one then get to head home for a third matchup and a shot at redemption vs. Deebo’s 49ers.

Money Line: Buccaneers (-135 odds)
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5 
Total: Over 48 Points
Projected Score: Buccaneers 27, Rams 24
Breakdown: I don’t love Tom Brady but I do love his record in Divisional Championship games (13-2!!!!!!!). Both sides will be playing through injuries but I’m siding with the home field advantage and the QB who not only has more than 1 postseason victory under his belt *cough* Stafford *cough*, but the most in NFL history by 19 wins (second most is Joe Montana). The Rams handled the Bucs when they faced off back in September but if anything that makes me want to take the Bucs even more. The Bucs will come into this game extremely prepared, the Bucs still have enough weapons to put up points against this Rams defense, they should get Leonard Fournette back for the game and the Bucs defensive line should live in the backfield due to injuries on the Rams offensive line. Taking the team that loves to play at home, led by the QB that loves to play in Super Bowls.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 1/23 (6:30 PM EST)

Money Line: Bills (+110 odds)
Spread: Bills +2.5 
Total: Over 53.5 Points 
Projected Score: Bills 34, Chiefs 31
Breakdown: Last but not least, the game of the weekend, the cherry on top of a delicious NFL Sundae (corny pun/typo absolutely intended). Josh Allen just played the game of his life and I don’t think it’s all that crazy to doubt he can do it again. However…the Bills just feel like the team of destiny at this point. This feels like the real AFC Championship game and I expect the teams to treat it as such. The Bills come in with the league’s best pass defense in yards per game allowed (163) and we all know how #15 on the Chiefs likes to operate (hint, it’s with his throwing arm). But even with that defense I am expecting a high scoring, fast paced game with a lot of second half points put on the board. The Bills are due…many people have been doubting them all year…and if things go as planned according to my crystal ball, the city of Buffalo will be hosting the AFC Championship game against the Bengals next Sunday. What a treat that would be.

Money Line: Bills (+110 odds)
Spread: Bills +3 (-130 odds)
Total: Under 55 Points
Projected Score: Bills 27, Chiefs 20
Breakdown: This story is the tale of two elite offenses and one elite defense. Both the Chiefs and the Bills have electric offenses, the former touting one of the most talented offensive rosters in NFL history and the latter owning the hottest offense in the league at the moment. The largest disparity here will be the two defenses. Buffalo has arguably the best defense in the league and the Chiefs defense, although much improved as of late, aren’t in the same league. Josh Allen might be the best player in the NFL right now and the breaks seem to be falling Buffalo’s way this season. The Chiefs… not so much. When you’re blessed with a generationally talented offense and you win a super bowl, the expectations will always be sky high. The Chiefs have hung in there this season despite what I would argue are unrealistic expectations of their fan base but it’s definitely felt like a struggle to get to this point. I think the Chiefs are obviously good enough to win this game at home but I’m siding with the hot hand in this one. Tables will be fallen through and a legend will take one step closer to his destiny. 

Q’s Best Bets (24-25 Overall)

Bills @ Chiefs: Bills +3 (-130 odds)

Bills @ Chiefs: Total Points Under 55.5 (-130 odds)

Rams @ Buccaneers: Buccaneers Money Line (-140 odds)

49ers @ Packers: 49ers +7.5 (-140 odds)

49ers @ Packers: Total Points Under 48

Bengals @ Titans: Titans 1st Quarter Money Line (-150 odds)

Bengals @ Titans: Total Points Under 47.5

3 Team Parlay: Bills +10.5, 49ers +14.5, Bucs +10 (-130 odds)

DPJ’s Best Bets (29-22 Overall)

Bengals @ Titans: Bengals +3.5

49ers @ Packers: Total Points Under 48

7 Point Teaser: Bills +9.5, 49ers +13 (-130 odds)

Risky Business (24-45 Overall)

2 Team Parlay: Buccaneers Money Line, Bills Money Line (+250 odds)

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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