NFL Week 13 Bets

How about a little 2-0 NFL best-of-the-best on Thanksgiving week from the MJQ boys? That puts us at 3-0 in the last two weeks and things are moving in the right direction. For our personal plays we’re still both above 50% on aggregate so don’t shy away from those as well as risky biz and other action. Great week of games this week, as always let’s stack units (responsibly) and have ourselves some fun.

Q’s Best Bets (13-14 Overall)
LA Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 12/5 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 49.5

Neither one of these teams has an elite defense and both offenses are capable of putting up points. The Chargers have been relatively dormant offensively as of late but every bear comes out of the cave eventually. The Bengals have been absolutely electric lately, especially eating up huge chunks on the ground. I’m banking on a battle between these two young future superstars which can only mean one thing… points, points, points.

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears – Sunday, 12/5 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Cardinals -6.5

So this pick is heavily tied to Kyler Murray’s return and possibly Hopkins/Edmonds return as well. That said, all signs point to at least Kyler’s return which is enough for me to jump on this line before it changes with injury news. Long story short, this is one of the worst offenses in the league facing off against one of the league’s best defenses.. oh and that elite defense also happens to have an electric offense when its playmakers are healthy. I think Arizona will ease Murray back into the swing of things but I do fully expect him to eventually shake off the cobwebs. Even if the Cardinals don’t come out firing right away, there’s little to no chance that this Bears offense is even capable of putting up a fight to make this one close.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs/New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: Chiefs -2.5, Patriots +10.5 (-130 odds)

Unpopular opinion, the Chiefs are absolutely still contenders to win the Super Bowl. They should be coming out of their late bye week refreshed and they finally have Clyde Edwards Helaire back from injury. The Broncos have been surprisingly impressive this year, especially after losing Von Miller, but I’m not sold that they’re true threats in the AFC just yet. Don’t fall into the trap of over generalizing the Chiefs not living up to their sky high preseason expectations. They still tout the most talented offense in the league and their lack of production could just as easily be a powder keg about to explode vs an overrated team trending towards implosion.

On paper the Bills should definitely win this game but it feels like we’re witnessing the infant stages of another potential Belichick dynasty under Mac Jones and this stingy defense. The Pats are one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC right now and the Bills have been exposed twice in the last four weeks. I think we see Mac Jones excel in prime time in this one and the Pats defense helps him at least keep this one close. Expecting Belichick to figure out a way to neutralize Josh Allen in this divisional face off with huge implications.

DPJ’s Best Bets (17-14 Overall)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, 12/5 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 43.5

The Steelers have lost three games in a row and the season is slipping away from them rather quickly. And this is quite a bad draw for them as they come in with the 28th best run defense in terms of yds per game, facing what is known to be the league’s best rushing attack. Lamar and Co. should run all over Pittsburgh and I think this could turn into somewhat of a shootout. These Ravens games have been feast or famine from a total game score perspective and after three famine games in a row I think it’s time for a feast. 43.5 is incredibly low and it shouldn’t take much to get there. Lamar limiting his turnovers against a soft defense might even do the trick. Another fun fact? Both these teams are in the bottom third in the league for yds allowed per game. Bottom line, yards and points can be had against these two rivals.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 12/5 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Lions +7.5

Week 12 saw the Vikings continue their incredible streak of one score games, losing to the 49ers by eight points which is their eighth game in a row finishing  inside one score. Now they march (or sail) across Lake Michigan to take on the Lions in Detroit. The Lions’ season is laughably horrendous at this point, they seem to be in many of these games at the end but can’t pull it out a win which seems like Dan Campbell’s destiny at this point. I definitely don’t like them to win outright but even with Deandre Swift out I think they will find enough room on the ground against one of the league’s worst run defenses to keep this one close. 7.5 points is also asking for a late game backdoor cover before a failed onside kick, something that sounds very Lions-esque.

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 12/5 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Bengals -2.5

I think I might be #done with the Chargers. As much as I wanted to believe Herbert was going to take a huge step forward this year and catapult himself into top 5 QB territory it just has not looked easy for him, especially of late. The Bengals on the other hand I feel entirely different about…they were riding high this season and got punched in the mouth by the Jets and the Browns and I really like the way they have responded. Joe Mixon looks like the best (healthy) RB outside of Jonathan Taylor and we all know about Burrow’s arm and his weapons. The defense has stepped up to the task and they are now allowing just 93 yds per game on the ground, good for 5th best in the league. The passing defense has looked spotty, and we know LAC likes to chuck the ball, but if they can keep LAC one dimensional this should work in their favor.

Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (9-16 Overall)
Colts @ Texans/Buccaneers @ Falcons/Jaguars @ Rams
Pick: 10 Point Super Teaser: Colts +0.5, Bucs -1, Rams -2.5 (-120 odds)

The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the league right now despite a nail biter loss to the defending champs last week. Jonathan Taylor is an absolute workhorse and the Indy defense is a turnover machine. The Texans tend to play teams closer than expected, especially with Tyrod Taylor under center, but I find it difficult to see the Colts dropping two in a row to an inferior team like Houston. 

I have a sneaking suspicion that the Bucs/Falcons game will be closer than the current spread suggests but I definitely don’t think the Bucs will totally flop against the second best team in their division currently (pretty wild the Falcons are 2nd in the NFC South, I know). Fournette should run all over Atlanta with ease and TB12 should have little to no difficulty picking apart their secondary. 

So… what’s the deal with the Rams, right? While I definitely think there’s still quite a few question marks on this Rams team in regards to contending for the Super Bowl, I do think they’re due for a get right game at home against a subpar Jaguars team. Definitely a team to monitor moving forward but I think their new look defense with Von Miller and new look offense with OBJ should take a step in the right direction this week. – Q

Other Action (55-56-4 Overall)

WFT @ Raiders: WFT +3

Eagles @ Jets: Eagles -6.5

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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