NFL Week 12 Bets

Is there anything more American than watching football on Thanksgiving? 

Week 12 is an absolute thing of beauty. Looking for a way to bond with your extended family? Watch football. Trying to avoid your extended family? Football. Rinse and repeat. Remember to pace yourselves on the turkey this year (the more you eat the less football you end up getting to watch) and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (13-12 Overall)
Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Giants – Sunday, 11/28 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Eagles -2.5

So it turns out the Eagles might actually be pretty good, huh? Philly appears to have found their identity running the ball and there’s slim to no chance that trend ends in New York this weekend. The Giants defense all around is, well, not great. The Eagles are playing big boy football right now, rushing for consecutive 200 yard games and led by emerging dual threat star QB Jalen Hurts. The Giants are allowing over 24 points per game and have had issues scoring all season. Take the Eagles with confidence in this one and expect a RBBC to take control early for Philly (especially now that Miles Sanders is back and healthy). Fly Eagles, fly!

NY Jets @ Houston Texans – Sunday, 11/28 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Texans -2.5

I’m honestly blown away that this line is still less than a field goal… When Tyrod Taylor is healthy, the Texans have actually been pretty decent this year. They also play great at home (3-1 ATS this season) and play a Jets team this weekend that very well could be the worst in the league. Brandin Cooks has been a pleasant surprise for this squad all year and I’m expecting a solid bounce back game against a suspect Jets secondary after a disappointing showing against the Titans last week. The Texans don’t have the greatest rushing game in the league but that shouldn’t matter much considering the Jets have the worst rush defense in the league. Expect Tyrod Taylor to raise some eyebrows this weekend and take the Texans by a field goal at home with confidence.

DPJ’s Best Bets (16-13 Overall)
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, 11/28 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 48

This Sunday late game slate is blessed with Vikings/49ers and Rams/Packers. Both should be great games, but I particularly love the over in this one. The cardiac Vikings moved to .500 with a big win at home against GB last week. Their average margin of victory is 6 points in wins, and 3 points in losses, which is just hilariously on brand for Kirk Cousins. Vegas is wising up and seemingly every Vikings game now has a spread of 3 points or less. I’m not going to pick them to cover this week but Kirk should be able to throw the ball all day on this 49ers secondary to get them over the total. Conversely, the 49ers should be able to run the ball all day on the Vikings. Minny is giving up 127 yds per game on the ground good for 27th best in the league. And we all know how much Shanahan loves to pound the rock. Ideally the 49ers jump out to an early lead and the Vikings throw the ball a ton racking up points. 48 could be covered by the end of the 3Q but should definitely be over 50 by end of game.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys/Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Cowboys Money Line, Patriots Money Line (-120 odds)

This parlay at nearly even odds feels like free money. On one hand, you have the Cowboys, who despite losing at KC last week should be pretty encouraged by how their defense looked. They still have a lot to figure out on offense but you have to trust Dak and Co. will get a grip on things, especially against a Raiders team that is now giving up 26 points per game. The line of 7.5 feels a bit large but I absolutely like the Cowboys to win. On the other hand, the Patriots…appear to be the best team in the AFC? They’ve beat up on a lot of bad teams this year but the defense looks like the real deal and they can run the ball on anybody. I know the Titans have squeaked out a couple wins after losing Henry but it feels a bit like smoke and mirrors. For example they beat the Rams on SNF with 194 yards of total offense. If Mac Jones doesn’t turn the ball over, which he usually doesn’t, the Pats should cruise to another W.

Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (7-16 Overall)
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints – Thursday, 11/25 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Bills -4

I took a peep at the Thanksgiving games about six weeks ago and thought this Bills/Saints matchup was gonna be a great one. Fast forward to this week, and both these teams look to be in absolute disarray. The Saints are without Winston for the rest of the season and Trevor Siemian looks like a third string quarterback. Kamara is banged up, probably out another week, and Mark Ingram is now banged up and could miss this game on a short week. The Saints seemingly have no weapons left on offense and their defense gave up 40 points to the Eagles just 4 days ago. The Bills went from heavy Super Bowl favorite to second place in the division after losing 3 out of 5 games, with losses against the Jags, Colts and Titans. I truly think the Bills are still the better team and this is a great chance for them to reset and get their season back on track. They got their asses handed to them by Indy last week and sometimes you need a short week to quickly erase the memories of that bad game. Josh Allen is gonna throw for 3+ TDs and the Bills will be holding the Turkey legs on NBC after a big W. – DPJ

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions – Thursday, 11/25 (12:30 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 45

Plan your second portion of turkey around this game folks. These two teams are entirely incapable of moving the ball, neither defense is remotely impressive and both teams have QBs under center that are far from their ideal franchise QB option. It’s hard to say which team will actually pull away from this one with the W (if I had to guess, I like the Lions to finally break their winless streak this week) but it’s very clear that it won’t be a high scoring affair. The Bears are going to attempt to pound the ball but they haven’t been stellar offensively on the ground all year and the Lions rush defense is probably their best attribute. This matchup has afternoon Thanksgiving snoozefest written all over it. I’d say bank on solid defense but realistically I’m confident in this under because of lack of offensive ability on both sides more than anything. Short both offenses here, ride with the under and hopefully use this game to recharge the old batteries before the real games start. – Q

Other Action (54-55-4 Overall)

Falcons @ Jaguars: Jaguars +2.5

Bears @ Lions: Lions +3.5

Risky Business (20-34 Overall; currently up 2.7 units)

3 Team – 6 Point Teaser (+180 odds): Vikings +10, Jaguars +7, Rams +7

3 Team Parlay (+480 odds): Lions Money Line, Eagles Money Line, Buccaneers Money Line

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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