NFL Week 11 Bets

The dream team of Q and Jake both went 2-0 in personal best bets last week, which moves us both to 50%+ on the year and 27-22 on aggregate. We’ve lined up another batch of winners this week and plan to stack some more units as we head into Turkey week. We will have some early picks out next week ahead of Thanksgiving day football so be sure to tap into the blog early to see who we like. Let’s Go.

Q’s Best Bets (12-10 Overall)
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 11/21 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 55

This one’s got all the makings of a shoot out. Both offenses clearly have disgusting levels of ability, both offenses have had ups and downs this season but are trending in the right direction and neither defense appears to be superior to the opposing offense (the Cowboys defense has looked solid this year but also volatile at times and the Chiefs defense is absolute garbage). People don’t want to admit it, but the Chiefs are still one of the best teams in the league (if not the best) and they’re starting to hit their stride heading into an advantageous Week 12 bye. I fully expect the Mahomes show to be on full display this weekend, utilizing the best WR and TE combo in the league (Hill and Kelce) and probably getting back his promising young RB Clyde Edwards Helaire from IR. I’m also expecting Prescott to answer the call, especially considering how awful the Chiefs defense is all around and how many weapons he has on offense between Ceedee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz and the one-two punch of Zeke and Tony Pollard. I feel like the Chiefs probably come away from this matchup victorious but I’m more comfortable betting on the points. Enjoy the fireworks and overtime is your best friend.

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers/WFT @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: 2 Team Parlay: Buccaneers Money Line, Panthers Money Line (-109 odds)

There’s no way Tom Brady is losing three games in a row to the Saints, WFT and Giants. I’ve heard the talk about how he’s struggled with the Giants historically, and I just don’t care. Most of those struggles have come at the hands of Eli Manning (which is wild, I know) and Brady has blown out Daniel Jones by 20+ points before. The Bucs are so much better than the Giants on both sides of the ball, Tom Brady is well versed in when teams need to start making playoff pushes (right now) and this game is on Monday in prime time. Expect a Bucs get right game and don’t buy into the upset rumors.

Cam’s baaaaaaaccccckkkk (see what I did there?). While I don’t expect Cam to play like his former NFL MVP self, it’s clear he’s given this Panthers team the spark they needed and at the perfect time. The NFC South has been falling apart over the past few weeks which has opened the door to the Panthers potentially sneaking their way into the playoffs if they can string together a series of wins over the next few weeks. Even more importantly, Christian McCaffrey is back and healthy. The Panthers have won ~33% of their games without CMC vs ~48% when CMC is healthy. Add the nostalgia factor to the mix for both CMC (he started his NFL career with Cam under center) as well as the Panthers fan base (season ticket prices have spiked by ~40% since the announcement of Cam’s return) and you get a powder keg of excitement and potential for a young talented Panthers squad with veteran leadership to turn heads moving into the postseason. Oh, and Chase Young is out for the season/Taylor Heinicke appears to only play well against the Bucs… I like the Thers to keep pounding this weekend/Cam to continue his comeback campaign.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills/Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Pick: 7 Point Teaser: Colts +14.5, Texans +18 (-130 odds)

Both legs to this teaser are value picks. While I don’t expect the Colts or the Texans to win their respective games outright, I think both are being grossly undervalued currently and should keep their games closer than their spreads would suggest.

The Colts could easily be 7-3 right now vs 5-5. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league, probably the best overall RB in the league (Jonathan Taylor), a burgeoning star in WR Michael Pittman Jr. and a stingy defense that should be able to somewhat keep the Bills offense in check (I mean the Jags were able to and they’re average at best). I’m hard pressed to say Wentz can put it all together to pull off the actual upset but I do think there’s enough talent on this team on both sides of the ball to at least keep it within two TDs. Taking the hungry Colts plus the points.

The Titans are probably the most overrated team in the league currently in my opinion. Sure, their defense has played stellar over the past few weeks but we can’t keep overlooking the gaping Derrick Henry sized hole in their offense. Adrian Peterson, Foreman and McNichols are simply bandaids for open wounds and their recent production doesn’t feel sustainable. The Texans are currently garnishing zero respect despite the fact that Tyrod Taylor is back and the Titans secondary is horrid. If the Texans are able to protect Taylor better then they might even have a chance to win this game. Going with the value here (18 points!) and riding with the Texans at home.

DPJ’s Best Bets (15-12 Overall)
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 11/21 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Eagles -1.5

The Saints REALLY seem to be missing Jameis Winston. That is not a sentence I would have seen myself writing at any point in Jameis’ career, but here we are. New Orleans now ranks second to last in passing yards per game (202) and with no Alvin Kamara their run game appears to be suffering as well, as much as I like Mark Ingram. Alvin is still banged up and could miss his second consecutive game. Things are not looking good for NoLa as they head into the pivotal back half of the season. The Eagles are trending in the other direction, Jalen Hurts seems to be finding himself and Philly can run the crap out of the football. I know how strong the Saints run defense is but a dual-threat QB can give them trouble as we’ve seen throughout this season. This is not a sexy pick but I simply think the Eagles will win this one in front of their home crowd and it’s a tasty line at -1.5, Bang bang bird gang, let’s go Eagles.

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars/Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: 49ers -0.5, Browns -3.5 (-110 odds)

I have been fading the 49ers for weeks but after their ass whooping of the Rams last week I think they are finally starting to figure things out. Jimmy G looks healthy enough and they have most of their weapons back on offense, Kittle is clearly the straw that sisters the drink for SF. I respect that the Jags have been playing better over the last couple weeks but I simply think they will be overmatched in this one. I’m ready to get back to making Urban Meyer jokes so a Jacksonville clowning would be well received by me. 

The other side of this teaser is pretty damn straightforward. Not only does Jared Goff stink but he has an injured oblique and we might get a Tim Boyle game from the Lions. Yes you read that correctly, the great Tim Boyle of Eastern Kentucky University. I found a funny stat from Boyle’s senior year at EKU, he threw for 11 TDs and 13 INTs in 11 starts…huh? Props to him for making it to the NFL with those stats and sticking around, but if he’s in the game on Sunday this could be another clowning. The Browns are looking for redemption after getting their dicks kicked around by the Pats last week and this should be a great tune up game.

Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (6-16 Overall)
Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears – Sunday, 11/21 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Ravens –1

The Ravens fly into Chicago looking for a bounce back game after an absolutely embarrassing performance against the Dolphins. The long week off should help (Dolphins game was TNF) and the Ravens have yet to lose back to back games this year. Most importantly, Chicago simply can’t stop the run. They are allowing 122 yards per game on the ground, 22nd best in the league. Assuming Lamar is able to play and overcome his illness (why is this guy sick every week?) we should see a heavy dose of Jackson/Freeman with 30+ total carries. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens pass defense is god awful (last in the league in yds allowed), but luckily the Bears haven’t been able to pass the ball against anyone (last in the league in pass yds per game). I like the Ravens to jump out to an early lead for once and force Justin Fields to beat them with his arm. I like Fields’ potential but this should be too tall of a task for the rookie QB. Ravens by a TD+. – DPJ

Other Action (51-52-4 Overall)

Bengals @ Raiders: Bengals -1

Colts @ Bills: Bills -7.5

Risky Business (19-33 Overall; currently up 0.7 units)

3 Team – 6 Point Teaser (+180 odds): Vikings +7.5, Cowboys +8.5, Giants +17

4 Team Parlay (+300 odds): Ravens Money Line, Browns Money Line, Bengals Money Line, Bucs Money Line

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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