NFL Week 9 Bets

Let’s take a quick moment of silence after a brutal week 8 for the MJQ team. It was an ugly week for us across the board, with a couple bad beats and a couple stinkers. Sometimes you have to take a step back in order to take two steps forward. We must keep our eyes on the prize and Q (10-9) and Jake (13-11) are both still in the green on the year, and we’re still +3.5 units in the risky biz. We’ve cooked up several Best of the Best bets for our readers this week, a couple personal plays and some tasty parlays and teasers. Monday is going to be a bad day to be a bookie.

Q’s Best Bets (10-9 Overall)
Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Monday, 11/8 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 42.5

These two teams are combining for an average of ~34 points per game currently. Father Time has clearly caught up to Big Ben and Matt Nagy has taken another victim in the form of Justin Fields. Both teams have better defenses than offenses, neither team has scored more than 27 points in a game this year (the Steelers scored 27 points once and the Bears scored 24 points once) and both teams are staring down the barrel of an intimidating injury report rolling into Monday. Despite glimmers of greatness throughout the season, Fields has yet to eclipse 200 passing yards in a game this year. Banking on the Steelers stingy defense to shut Fields down and for Roethlisberger’s arm to start hurting around the second quarter (leading to a run heavy scheme). Defense wins championships, but probably not for either one of these teams this season.

DPJ’s Best Bets (13-11 Overall)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints – Sunday, 11/8 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 43

The NFL lost one of it’s shining stars last week to injury in Jameis Winston. When I say ‘shining star’ I don’t necessarily mean an MVP caliber player, but Jameis is easily one of the most entertaining players to watch across the league. The Saints do however have another comedic ace up their sleeve…enter Taysom Hill. Taysom is not going to make the same bonehead do-or-die hilarious throws that Jaemis makes, but who doesn’t love a good QB truck stick on a linebacker coming through the B gap? Hill returned to practice this week and appears on pace to play this week vs. Atlanta. While I think there is some entertainment value I see this game as somewhat of a slopfest. The Falcons are now without Calvin Ridley for the foreseeable future which means more eyeballs on rookie Kyle Pitts in coverage. Taysom actually started both games vs. Atlanta last year when Drew Brees was out with injury and they won both with totals of 41 and 37. Sean Payton knows he can win with Taysom, it just takes a certain brand of smash mouth and play action football.

Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (5-11 Overall)
Las Vegas Raiders @ NY Giants – Sunday, 11/7 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Raiders -2

It goes without saying, the Raiders organization has seen better days. While I respect Derek Carr proving he’s a good teammate, there’s no excuse for the actions of Henry Ruggs and we extend our deepest condolences to Tina Tintor’s family. Tragedies aside, life goes on and football is part of life. The Raiders are coming off a bye and are an absolute matchup nightmare for the lowly Giants. Carr is an effective QB when he has ample time to make decisions. I don’t suspect that to be an issue against this Giants defense. The Giants are riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball (it looks like Saquon will miss yet another game this week) and they’re only 1-3 playing at home up to this point. The fact that this line is less than a field goal is a steal, don’t overthink it. – Q

LA Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 11/7 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Chargers -1

So that happened… The Chargers dropping two in a row was definitely a curveball last week. That said, this is still a great team that’s only one game back in the surprising AFC West with a fairly easy schedule moving forward. That easy schedule starts with Vegas’ latest overreaction victim, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are coming off by far their biggest offensive effort of the season last week, winning 44-6 and rushing for 236 yards. The only problem is that it came against the Detroit Lions, a team that’s staring down the barrel of a winless season. Before last week’s victory, the Eagles were averaging less than 23 points per game and they arguably still haven’t truly found their identity on offense. Before their two game losing streak, the Chargers were averaging close to 29 points per game and touted one of the most electric offenses in the league led by last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert. Great players/teams are determined by how they deal with adversity and I think the Chargers (and Justin Herbert) are up to the task. The Eagles may have showed out against an 0-8 team last week but it seems like a stretch to think that the puzzle has been solved in Philly after one game, especially considering they seem to change scheme on a week to week basis. Side with the better team in this one and ride with the Chargers to bounce back this week. – Q

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 11/7 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Bengals -2.5

I think just about everyone and their mother picked the Bengals last week to stomp the Jets after they steamrolled the Ravens the week prior. Was that a mistake? Probably. Is Cincy still one of the best teams in the NFL? I think so. There is no doubt that this will be a tough matchup with the Browns. Cleveland’s offense has looked pitiful but the defense has kept them in enough games to make them dangerous. However, that defense has had a hard time slowing down a high powered offense…they gave up 33 to KC, 47 to LAC and 37 to AZ. I’m sure Myles Garrett will get another sack to add to his monstrous season but I don’t see Cleveland’s offense being able to hang with Burrow and Chase for four quarters. The 47 point total should give you some feel for how weak Cleveland’s offense has looked over the past month. They haven’t scored more than 17 points since October 10th. Look for Zac Taylor’s Bengals to get back on track this week with a statement win over the Browns. – DPJ

Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday, 11/7 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Ravens -5.5

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings head east to Maryland to take on Lamar Jackson’s Ravens coming off their bye week. This matchup certainly favors the Ravens as the spread would show, but quite frankly this line feels like it should be closer to 7 or 8 points. Baltimore is posting another incredible season pounding the rock on the ground, to the tune of 149 yards per game, good for 3rd best in the league. Meanwhile the Vikings run defense has been porus, allowing 121 per game, slotting them at 21st in the league. I don’t necessarily see it being that simple, and Lamar will have to make all the throws he typically makes to get a W, but once Baltimore gets a lead they should be able to ride the run game all the way through the fourth quarter. John Harbaugh is also 9-4 in his career coming off a bye week which is one of the best marks in the league. The Ravens have had two weeks to figure out what went wrong in that Cincy loss in week 7 and should come out well prepared and ready to dominate Kirk and Co. I like the over as well but going to ride the Ravens spread to the promised land. – DPJ

Other Action (47-50-4 Overall)

Jets @ Colts: Colts -9.5

Broncos @ Cowboys: Cowboys -9.5

Texans @ Dolphins: Total Points Under 46.5

Falcons @ Saints: Falcons +6

Bills @ Jaguars: Bills -13.5

Vikings @ Ravens: Total Points Over 49

Risky Business (17-26 Overall; currently up 3.5 units)
Given the crazy amount of uncertainty leading into this weekend’s slate of games (as of Wednesday), we’ve decided to add a few picks under risky business that are “contingency bets”. These “contingency bets” are games with enticing spreads and/or totals as of today that are entirely contingent on specific star players starting this week who are currently dealing with injuries. Any “contingent bets” will be denoted with an asterisk (*).

3 Team – 7 Point Teaser (+120 odds): Cowboys (-2.5), Bills (-6.5), Rams (-0.5)

3 Team Parlay (+185 odds): Chiefs Money Line, Chargers Money Line, Rams Money Line

*Texans @ Dolphins (contingent on Tyrod Taylor): Texans +7.5

*Panthers @ Patriots (contingent on Christian McCaffrey): Panthers +3.5

*Cardinals @ 49ers (contingent on Kyler Murray): Cardinals +0.5

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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