Don’t look now but our risky business bets are finally starting to hit. Try as they may, turns out even college players aren’t impervious to statistical analysis.
Stay logical and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (7-9 overall)
Ole Miss @ Tennessee – Saturday, 10/16 (7:30 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 82.5
So many points. I’m always going to take the under on a total of 80+ points regardless of who is playing just based on statistics alone. This should be an electric matchup between two high flying offenses and these two teams have actually combined to score over 80 points three different times this season (somewhat of a statistical anomaly). Taking that historical performance into consideration, I have to take the over then right? Wrong. Let’s look at the three opponents that fell victim to an 80+ total vs Ole Miss/Tennessee so far (Tulane, Missouri and Arkansas). Tulane and Missouri both have terrible defenses and both games were complete blowouts (neither team scored more than 24 points in their respective games). While Arkansas has the best defense among the three, they’re still far from elite and depend heavily on their powerful rushing offense to compete. The Volunteers defense is much better than any of those three teams and they’ll be playing with passion against Lane Kiffin as he makes his first return to Knoxville as a head coach since leaving the program years ago. Also take into account the fact that Ole Miss is coming off of a 52-51 victory last week over Arkansas (a victory that Arkansas arguably lost more than Ole Miss won) and you get a solid possibility of a let down game for the Rebels offensively. I’m banking on the Vols defense to slow down the Rebels passing game (not entirely, but enough) and I’m expecting the Vols offense to pound the ball on the ground all game (which should eat up valuable time in regards to the total). Riding with the analytics in this one and hoping for a conclusion to this matchup in regulation.
DPJ’s Best Bets (5-7-1 overall)
San Diego State @ San Jose State – Friday, 10/15 (10:30 PM EST)
Pick: San Diego State -7.5
This Aztecs team is an absolute wagon running the football. Through 5 games they are averaging 244 yards on the ground per game, good for 18th best in the FBS. Enter the SJSU Spartans defense that gives up the 118th most rushing yards per game in the FBS. And the Spartans have done that while playing only 1 power five team (lousy USC) who ran for 160 yards. As you can disertain, I’m expecting much of the same for the Aztecs and think they will run all over SJSU and control the line of scrimmage from start to finish. This team is built in the trenches and shouldn’t have any trouble putting the clamps on the Spartans offense as well. I love that this is a Thursday night game too so SJSU will have minimal time to prepare for their ass whooping.
Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (2-8 Overall)
Michigan State @ Indiana – Saturday, 10/16 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Michigan State -3
Vegas, what did the Spartans do to hurt you? I simply just don’t understand why the Spartans continue to be faded week in/week out when it comes to their spreads. This team is super balanced on both sides of the ball and, again, they’re my sleeper favorite to win the Big 10 this year. Payton Thorne has proven he can effectively manage this high powered offense, Kenneth Walker III has a great shot at winning the Heisman this year (and could eclipse the 1,000 rushing yard mark this weekend ALREADY), Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor have terrorized secondaries all season and the Spartans defense has been stingy all year. Indiana has gotten thrashed by every ranked team they’ve played this season and I don’t see that trend changing against a motivated Michigan State squad taking aim at their first Big Ten title since 2015. I’ve been bullish on Sparty all season and it’s going to take more than a subpar Hoosiers team to derail that faith! – Q
Alabama @ Mississippi State – Saturday, 10/16 (7:00 PM EST)
Pick: Alabama -16.5
Quick moment of silence for the Crimson Tide as they absolutely got chewed out and most likely tortured by Nick Saban all week after a huge upset at Kyle Field vs. A&M. I am betting that Nick went full-blown-psychopath this week and will have his team looking to get right against a crappy Miss State team. It will most likely be loud as hell in Starkville, the cowbells will be ringing, but I expect maximum focus from Alabama and would not be surprised to see them up 20 at half time. Bama knows they need to (maybe) run the table from here and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship so the road back to the CFP truly starts on Saturday. Roll tide. – DPJ
Other Action (5-7 Overall)
Oklahoma State @ Texas: OK State +6
NC State @ Boston College: BC +3.5
Risky Business (1-6 Overall)
3 Team – 6 Point Teaser (+180 odds): Cincinnati (-13.5), UF (-2.5), Texas A&M (-2.5)
3 Team – 6 Point Teaser (+180 odds): Tennessee (+9), Iowa (-4.5), Arizona (+13)
3 Team – 7 Point Teaser (+130 odds): BC (+10.5), UK (+31.5), Iowa (-4.5)
Ole Miss @ Tennessee: Tennessee Money Line (+130 odds)
Disclaimer: SidehustlebetsMJQ.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.