NFL Week 5 Bets

Week 4 included quite a few twists and turns, and I’m not just referring to Urban Meyer’s pants. While the NFL continues to prove a worthy opponent to gamblers everywhere, DPJ and Q have found our footing and we don’t plan on stopping anytime soon.

Keep your eyes on the prize and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (8-4 Overall) (3-0 Week 4)
LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks – Thursday, 10/7 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Rams -1

I see this game as a big bounce back for Matthew Stafford and the Rams defense after getting throttled by the Cardinals in a much anticipated meeting of the undefeateds last week. While statistically this game would appear to be a matchup between two great offenses vs two poor defenses, I believe the stat sheet to be somewhat misleading in regards to Seattle. Seattle has looked very suspect this year and could easily be 1-3 instead of 2-2. The Seahawks offense has been great in the red zone this year and has avoided turnovers but it’s also been big play dependent and ranks towards the back half of the league in almost every other offensive category. The Seahawks defense has fared well in the red zone and they’ve gotten to the QB relatively consistently but they haven’t played any elite offenses yet and rank towards the very bottom of the league in yardage allowed per game. Now let’s compare those stats to those of the Rams. The Rams have protected their new asset in Matthew Stafford beautifully and have excelled in almost every single offensive category (other than red zone efficiency and rushing) despite facing three different stingy defenses to start the season. Expect those rushing numbers to rise against a terrible Seahawks run defense. The Rams defense has struggled getting to the QB this season. Expect Aaron Donald to change that against a porous Seahawks offensive line and a thirst for blood after being held (figuratively and literally) to only 2 sacks so far this season. As long as the Rams can prevent big plays by this Seahawks offense and cause some chaos in the backfield, I’m fully expecting this Rams offense to overwhelm Seattle’s defense and help LA pull away by two scores late. I think Stafford is a future hall of famer, and I expect him to show why in prime time Thursday night.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans – Sunday, 10/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 45

Here’s another Bill Belichick rookie QB torture special for you! Belichick is the Hannibal Lecter of inflicting pain on rookie QB psyches and he’s licking his lips over this week’s matchup against Davis Mills. Mills, and really the Texans as a whole without Tyrod Taylor, has looked completely and entirely lost all season. Look at what this Pats defense has done against young/rookie QBs so far this season. They held Tua to 17 points in week 1, they held Zach Wilson to 6 points in week 2 (along with a plethora of turnovers) and the defensive dominance hasn’t been isolated to younger QBs alone. This Pats defense ranks toward the top of every defensive category and was able to hold Tom Brady (and the defending Super Bowl champs/powerhouse offense Bucs) to 19 points, their lowest total of the season. It’s also worth mentioning that these two teams have combined to hit the under on their totals for 75% of their games this year. The Pats haven’t scored more than 25 points in a game and the Texans are averaging 4.5 points PER GAME since Tyrod Taylor went down against the Browns. I think the Pats will start fast in this game after losing a nail biter at home last week but they are far from a powerhouse offense and it shouldn’t really even matter if the Texans are incapable of scoring points (which I suspect to be the case). Say a prayer for Davis Mills, he has dark days ahead.

DPJ’s Best Bets (10-7 Overall)
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday, 10/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Dolphins +10.5

It has been a tough start to the year for the Miami Dolphins. They lost their starting QB (Tua) in week 2 and their backup Brissett has looked quite suspect since taking the reins. Brissett was never expected to set the world on fire but I think he is a little more competent than he has looked. It’s also a bit surprising to see this Dolphins defense get manhandled each week, giving up 27.5 points per game (25th in the league). With that being said….I like the Dolphins this week as they head up the Florida coast to Tampa to take on Brady’s Buccaneers. We saw what Tom looked like last week without his favorite security blanket Gronk on the field. And outside of Bill Belichick, Dolphins coach Brian Flores knows Brady as well as anyone. Flores spent 14 years in New England between various roles 2004-2018 before taking over as head coach in Miami. I certainly wouldn’t pick the Dolphins to win but I think they should have enough in the tank to slow the Bucs down coming off a big emotional return-to-home win for Brady in New England. 10.5 points will also leave the backdoor wide open for a meaningless late game touchdown to cover.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers – Sunday, 10/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 44

The Panthers were brought back to earth last week after a humbling loss in Dallas by 8 points. If you watched the game, it really felt closer to a blow out than an 8 point loss. Carolina proved that their defense might not be as good as advertised, even though they held the Saints (with a seemingly brain dead Jameis Winston) to 7 points in week 2. The Panthers have now traded for CJ Henderson and Stephon Gilmore in successive weeks so the writing is clearly on the wall that they think they need help in the secondary. Enter the Philadelphia Eagles…who come in with a surprisingly potent offense, 7th in total yds, 9th in rush yds and 9th in passing yds. They even stuck with the Chiefs for most of the game last week, hanging 30 on them and throwing for over 358 yards. I don’t expect this final score to look quite like that KC/PHI final score (72 total points) but 44 seems awfully low and I like these two teams to cover that after three quarters.

Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (1-5 Overall)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, 10/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Titans -3

This line feels like a massive overreaction to the Titans handing the Jets their first win of the season last week. Granted it was a home loss to arguably the worst team in the league, but the Titans are not a bad team. People are treating that loss like losing to a winless team is a virus and the Titans just tested positive. The Titans are once again at the top of the ranks of rushing offense in the league and the Jags are, for lack of better words, not an equal match. Add this Urban Meyer nonsense to the mix and you get an unfortunate situation for #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence and a two score victory for the reeling Titans. Expect Derrick Henry to feast, and Urban Meyer to grind… at his college bar in Ohio.

Other Action (18-27-2 Overall)

Rams @ Seahawks: Total Points Over 54

Lions @ VIkings: Lions +7.5

Eagles @ Panthers: Panthers -3

Saints @ WFT: Saints -0.5

Saints @ WFT:  Total Points Over 44

Titans @ Jaguars: Total Points Under 49

Packers @ Bengals: Packers -3

Packers @ Bengals: Total Points Over 49.5

Broncos @ Steelers: Steelers -1

Bears @ Raiders: Raiders -3.5

Bears @ Raiders: Total Points Over 44

Browns @ Chargers: Chargers +1

Giants @ Cowboys: Cowboys -6.5

49ers @ Cardinals: Cardinals -4.5

Colts @ Ravens: Ravens -6.5

Colts @ Ravens: Total Points Over 45

2 Team – 6 Point Teaser (-110 odds): Lions (+13.5), Dolphins (+16.5)

2 Team Parlay (-120 odds): Cardinals Money Line, Cowboys Money Line

Risky Business (9-11 Overall; currently up 3.2 units)

3 Team – 6 Point Teaser (+180 odds): Patriots (-1.5), Chargers (+7), Cowboys (-0.5)

3 Team – 7 Point Teaser (+120 odds): Bills (+10.5), Raiders (+3.5), Packers (+4)

2 Team Parlay (+265 odds): Cardinals (-4.5), Steelers/Broncos Total Points Under 44

2 Team Parlay (+250 odds): Packers (-3), Saints (-0.5)

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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