Week 1 is in the books and, despite some disappointing performances from some elite teams, we didn’t make out too shabby. 7-8 overall and 1-1 with our risky business “high risk, high reward” bets.
While we obviously strive to be over .500, we’re confident that the bets we provide this week will get us over the hump. Strap in for some electric week 2 matchups, don’t fall prey to week 1 overreactions and don’t forget to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (1-2 Overall)
NY Giants @ Washington Football Team – Sunday, 9/19 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 43
This pick is relatively simple. I don’t like either offense and Washington has one of the best defenses in the league. I thought Washington’s offense was underrated until Fitzmagic went down last week, now I’m highly skeptical as Taylor Heinicke is set to take over under center. The Giants very well might have the worst QB in the league in Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley will likely continue to operate under a pitch count for the foreseeable future due to his significant durability issues (if he even plays in general), the Giants offensive line is one of the worst in the league and Evan Engram is out with a calf injury. I’m expecting Chase Young and the WFT defense to shut things down early and really the only risk to the under will come from a spirited effort from Heinicke and Co. I don’t see such an effort being required from the WFT offense to pull this one out so I’m taking the under accordingly and hoping for a snore fest.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins – Sunday, 9/19 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Bills -2.5
While I think the Dolphins are underrated this year, I think this line is an overreaction to the Bills loss at home last week. The Bills touted arguably the most electric offense in the league last season and return most of their starters from that squad this year. I think last week’s loss to Pittsburgh is less representative of an offensive regression for Buffalo and more of a testament to how good the Steelers defense truly is. Great players bounce back in a big way and I think Josh Allen is just that, a great player. Expect the Bills to come out swinging on Sunday and the Dolphins to not know what hit them. I’m taking the Bills, and MVP candidate Josh Allen, by a field goal confidently in this matchup.
New England Patriots @ NY Jets – Sunday, 9/19 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 44
Another week, another rookie QB victim for Belichick to torment. Tua fell prey to Belichick’s beautiful defensive mind last week, as expected, and Mac Jones (although clearly talented) is still working through the growing pains of becoming a franchise QB. They say history tends to repeat itself and I don’t see that changing this weekend against rookie QB Zach Wilson. I fully expect Belichick to wrap Wilson’s mind into a pretzel by halftime from all the different looks he’ll be throwing at him and I doubt Mac Jones turns the Pats’ offense into a powerhouse over the span of a week. It’s also worth noting that this will be the first away game of Mac Jones’ career against a young Jets defense that is seemingly flying under the radar this season despite quite a few talented additions in the offseason (including new head coach, former 49ers Defensive Coordinator, Robert Saleh). I’m expecting a low scoring defensive struggle in this one that’s ultimately decided by one score. Fade offense on both sides and roll with the under.
DPJ’s Best Bets (2-1 Overall)
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals – Sunday, 9/19 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 49.5
The Vikings/Bengals over for last week was one of my best bets and it was a winner. I’m applying most of the same logic here, with an emphasis on Kirk Cousins aka the Garbage Time King. We all saw how dominant the Cardinals front seven was in week 1, controlling the line of scrimmage and making Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill look like Trent Richardson and *insert one of the zillion shitty Browns QBs here*. Well guess what, there were no points scored in the 4th Quarter and the game still hit 51 points. I would expect a fairly similar outcome here but I do think Kirk will have a better time scoring while down three+ touchdowns than Tannehill did, because that is what Kirk does best.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears – Sunday, 9/19 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Totals Points Over 45
The Bears looked god-awful for the first half of week 1, but they found some success in the second half, particularly running the ball with Monty. That was against last year’s best run D in the Rams who have significantly more fire power (looking at you Aaron Donald) than the Bengals. They should be able to build off of that run game and open things up for the incredibly mediocre Red Rifle Dalton in the short passing game. The short passes are really Andy Dalton’s only marginal strength, and even that feels generous. The Bengals offense looked great, Burrow was efficient and Mixon looks like he’s poised for a huge year. If Van Jefferson and Cooper Kupp we’re able to burn the Bears secondary for massive TDs I see no reason why Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd can’t do the same.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers – Monday, 9/20 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Packers -10
This is the type of game I always look for coming into week 2. The game with a team who had high expectations and came incredibly short of those expectations in week 1, coming home to play a dog shit team that they have historically crushed. Enter the Packers coming home to Lambeau to face Jared Goff’s Lions. If you look at the box score for SF @ DET in week 1, you’d think the Lions found some real success against a formidable defense. The Lions had a couple flashes here and there but the success on offense was largely after the 49ers mailed it in after going up 4 touchdowns. That game looked like a JV team vs. a Varsity team. The Packers should be hungry and ready to make a statement win after a statement loss to the Saints last Sunday. Barring a backdoor cover, the Packers should cruise to a 14+ point win.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday, 9/19 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Bucs -12
Tampa weasled their way out of a nail biter at home against the Cowboys in week 1, which was expected. But that is the type of win that Tom Brady is usually not satisfied with. A win is a win, but I know Brady will come out in week 2 looking to sharpen things up a bit. There is no team better to sharpen your tools against than the limp dick Atlanta Falcons. They allowed Jalen Hurts to carve them up to the tune of 264 yards and 3 touchdowns and an easy W. I love Hurts but he is no Tom Brady…and any time I can bet against Matt Ryan outside of his dome I feel good about it. This one should be over before it starts and should play well in teasers. Similar to the Packers game, back door cover will loom as a threat in the fourth quarter but I like my chances.
Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (0-2 Overall)
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals – Sunday, 9/19 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Cardinals -2.5
I LOVE THIS CARDINALS OFFENSE. Kyler Murray is my favorite for NFL MVP this season and he showed why in emphatic fashion in week 1. Not only is Kyler the most elusive dual threat QB in the league this year, he’s got arguably the best veteran WR in the league to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins (not to mention Christian Kirk and AJ Green). The Cardinals RBBC backfield appears to be surprisingly effective when needed with James Conner and Chase Edmonds sharing carries but let’s be real, Kyler is probably even more dangerous to break off a huge run at any given moment (planned or scramble). The Cardinals defense is tired of the offense getting all the love and made it very clear that they’re a force to be reckoned with as well last week with Chandler Jones recording 5 sacks and newly acquired JJ Watt fitting into the defensive front nicely. Although I expect Patrick Peterson to play with a vengeance against his former squad this weekend, the fireworks should continue for the Cardinals in this one and Kyler Murray should continue to build a solid case for MVP this season. – Q
Dallas Cowboys @ LA Chargers – Sunday, 9/19 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 52
What do you get when you combine two Offensive Rookies of the Year with loaded offenses? Points. Dallas is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the reigning Super Bowl champs last week and Dak appears primed to win Comeback Player of the Year this season. People are incorrectly fading Zeke due to his lack of usage last week but that was due to game plan because of Tampa’s loaded defensive front. I expect Zeke to eat all game against a less potent Chargers defensive line which should open things up for Dak’s receivers downfield for big plays (Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb had huge games last week). Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense shouldn’t have any issues moving the ball against an average at best Cowboys defense that just lost its best pass rusher in Demarcus Lawrence to a foot injury in practice this week. Both of these offenses are built for shoot outs so sit back, relax and watch this over get smashed by the 3rd quarter. – Q
Other Action (4-3 overall)
Giants @ WFT: WFT -3
Raiders @ Steelers: Steelers -5.5
49ers @ Eagles: 49ers -3
Texans @ Browns: Browns -12
Texans @ Browns: Total Points Over 46
Broncos @ Jaguars: Jags +7
Broncos @ Jaguars: Total Points Over 43.5
Saints @ Panthers: Saints -2.5
Rams @ Colts: Rams -3
Bills @ Dolphins: Total Points Under 49
Patriots @ Jets: Jets +7
Titans @ Seahawks: Total Points Over 50
Risky Business (1-1 overall; currently up 0.8 units)
We’re adding a new section to our weekly bets moving forward for those of you who really like to roll the dice. Our “Risky Business” section will include any teasers, parlays and underdog money lines that caught our eye for that week. Go big or go home, right?
3 Team – 6 Point Teaser (+180 odds): Bucs (-6), Browns (-6), Packers (-4)
3 Team – 6 Point Teaser (+180 odds): Bucs (-6), Browns (-6), Cowboys/Chargers Total Points Over 46
3 Team – 7 Point Teaser (+120 odds): WFT (+4), Cowboys (+10.5), Ravens (+10.5)
4 Team Parlay (+120 odds): Bucs Money Line, Browns Money Line, Packers Money Line, Pats Money Line
Disclaimer: SidehustlebetsMJQ.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.