NFL Week 1 Bets

The best half of the year is finally upon us. The NFL is BACK and my Sunday plans for the foreseeable future are set. Map out your favorite sports bars, get your hands on an NFL SUNDAY TICKET login and claim your lucky throne on the couch because the journey to Lombardi starts now. 

We’re in a giving mood given our excitement for the start of the season so we will be providing all of our favorite Week 1 bets, including our exclusive content, “Best Bets” and “Best of the Best Bets”, for free! Enjoy and bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets
Chicago Bears @ LA Rams – Sunday, 9/12 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 46

The Rams finally get to break in their new stadium against a new look Bears squad. I like the under here given how good both defenses are in addition to question marks on the offensive side of the ball for both teams. The Rams currently face uncertainty at RB due to injury and they’ll also be operating under center with a new QB in Matt Stafford. Andy Dalton will get the start for the Bears which should scream “take the under” regardless who he’s playing for (especially against an elite defense like the Rams at home). The Bears defense has taken a step back in the past two seasons but they’ve remained stingy in the red zone and still have a guy named Khalil Mack (maybe you’ve heard of him). Between Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald expect chaos in both backfields. From a statistical standpoint, if you combine the Bears’ record as an away underdog last year with the Rams’ record last year as a home favorite they hit the under 75% of the time. I’m banking on those trends to continue and rolling with the under in this one.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots – Sunday, 9/12 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 44

I know what you’re thinking, “Man this guy takes a lot of unders..” Normally I hate taking unders since overs just make games more fun to watch but I just can’t resist the Belichick effect in this one. Bill Belichick has been absolutely lethal in season openers (really any games that he has a lot of time to prepare for) and both of these defenses are loaded with talent. Add the sub par offenses for both teams into the mix and you’ve got a recipe for an under. I think Tua will play better this year but Belichick is going to confuse him early and often so I highly doubt Week 1 will showcase the bounce back Tua’s looking for this season. I think Mac Jones will be solid this season as well but we have to take into account he was only recently named the starter, this will be his first NFL start ever and the Dolphins defense is loaded with talent (especially in their secondary). I’m expecting great defense and growing pains on offense for both teams. Trust Belichick to suffocate this game early and take the under with confidence.

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday, 9/12 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Colts +2.5 (worth moving the line to +3 if needed)

As of today there are multiple unresolved variables that could affect whether it’s worth taking this bet or not (the Colts have 99 problems and COVID has been about 90 of them). That said, if Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Carson Wentz are able to go Week 1 (I guess I’ll throw Pascal in there as well) I absolutely love taking the Colts WITH points at home. The TY Hilton injury and Eric Fisher’s delayed rehab definitely don’t help things but as long as the Colts can get the core of that loaded offensive line active by Week 1 then I’m all over this spread. Jonathan Taylor is an emerging superstar who has all the looks of a workhorse back behind an elite offensive line, the Colts defense should be another solid unit again this year and the Seahawks were atrocious last year against the spread as an away favorite (1-5). Again, this take is entirely dependent on what squad actually suits up for the Colts next Sunday so keep an eye on the news because the line will almost definitely move if any combination of Nelson, Wentz and Kelly are cleared to play. 

DPJ’s Best Bets
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints – Sunday, 9/12 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Saints +4

For the first time since 2006 the Saints will open their season without Drew Brees on the roster. Typically you’d think removing a first ballot hall of famer from a team would make them worse, but I honestly think removing a guy who can’t throw the ball longer than 7 yards could be a big boost for the Saints. Yes, Jameis Winston has a history of sloppiness with the football…but spending a year in Sean Payton’s system observing Drew and learning the ropes should do him wonders.The Saints still have a top 5 defense and return most of the supporting cast on offense. I’m expecting a lot of points for NoLa and we’ll see if the Packers can keep up.

Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 9/12 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 47

I think this one will either be a shootout, with both teams going back and forth all game, or if either team jumps out to a big lead I feel the other team will thrive in garbage time (looking at you Kirk Cousins). The amount of times I’ve seen Kirk put up multiple touchdowns that don’t matter while trailing by 20+ points is the perfect recipe for an Over. Joe Burrow is back with a little more offensive line help and another weapon in Jamar Chase. Cousins has much of the same crew with what should be an even more polished Justin Jefferson coming off a massive rookie season. Points, Points, Points.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Thursday, 9/9 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 52

This one is a great narrative game for many reasons. Tampa is coming off an incredible year and Super Bowl run, returning all 22 Super Bowl starters, trying to get old Tom his eighth ring. Dallas is coming off an incredibly disappointing and injury riddled season, and one of the worst seasons of Hard Knocks these eyes have ever seen. I foresee a little bit of a SB hangover for the Tampa offense to start the season, but their defense should be able to slow down the Cowboys enough as Dak looks to get his mojo back. Something along the lines of 24-17 final score feels right. It will admittedly not be that fun to root for minimal scoring on the opening night of the NFL season, but it’s always easy to root against Tom.

Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – Sunday, 9/12 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Jags -2.5

For those of you that haven’t been paying attention to Trevor Lawrence in the preseason I’ll catch you up to speed, he’s electric. The 1st overall pick in the draft (and arguably the best prospect to come out of college since Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck) has picked up right where he left off in college (where he won a national championship for Clemson as a true Freshman). Against Dallas last week he was 11/12 for 139 yards and 2 TDs almost in the first quarter alone. Oh yeah almost forgot to mention, HE’S NEVER LOST A REGULAR SEASON GAME IN HIS LIFE REGARDLESS OF LEVEL. Losing Etienne for the season hurts but realistically James Robinson should be able to pick up the slack and the Jags WRs have looked pretty solid for the most part. Then there’s the fact that they’re playing the Texans. The Texans are the worst team in football. They’re an absolute dumpster fire on every side of the ball as well as the organization as a whole and I think there’s a good chance they go winless this year. I don’t foresee Trevor’s astronomical regular season winning streak coming to an end in Houston and there’s a good chance he’s faced better defenses in college. I’m taking the Jags without a second thought here and expect them to win by at least a TD. – Q

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 9/12 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Chiefs -6

As much as I’ve enjoyed watching the Browns finally start turning it around after decades of mediocrity, I think they’re getting a little too much love here. I understand that they dismantled the Steelers in the playoffs last year and they were able to hang with the Chiefs but those box scores are misleading. The Steelers were absolute frauds last year, having arguably the easiest schedule in the entire league and getting exposed well before their playoff game against the Browns. We also have to keep in mind that despite that nightmarish start for the Steelers (28 point deficit after the 1st quarter) the Browns still almost allowed them to come back at the end of the game. The Chiefs were in relative control of the Browns in the Divisional playoff until Mahomes got hurt and even then Chad Henne was able to weather the storm enough to come out with a win. Not trying to knock the Browns because I do think they are really good on both sides of the ball this year (especially their offensive line) but this is the Chiefs we’re talking about. The Chiefs improved their offensive line, they’re still probably one of the best offenses of all time, they’re coming off a Super Bowl slaughter and they’re kicking off their season at home. I think Mahomes has a great chance to notch another MVP under his belt this season and the Chiefs could honestly go undefeated, they’re that good. I’m taking the best offensive of our generation in this one by at least a TD. – Q

Other Action
These bets caught our attention, but not necessarily enough for us to pull the trigger quite yet. Providing these for your reference but we’ll let you be the judge.

Steelers @ Bills: Bills -6.5

Steelers @ Bills: Total Points Over 48.5

49ers @ Lions: 49ers -7.5

49ers @ Lions: Total Points Over 45

Cardinals @ Titans: Cardinals +3

Cardinals @ Titans: Total Points Under 52

Ravens @ Raiders: Ravens -4

3 Team – 6 Point Teaser: Bills -0.5, Rams -1, 49ers -1.5

3 Team – 6 Point Teaser: Cowboys +14 (moved line from +13.5 to +14), WFT +7.5, Cardinals +9

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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