Lack luster NFL week for SHB last week but still combined to go 5-6 for +0.69 units moving our season total to 21-16 for +5.465 units. No harm, no foul. Week 5 we hop back on the money train. Q’s running a tad late so expect his game breakdowns shortly.

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 4: 9-8, +0.19 units)

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, 10/8 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Texans +2 (-110) (1 unit)

DeMeco Ryans has this young Texans team looking incredibly sharp through 4 weeks, and I love them going on the road to Atlanta in week 5 for another statement game. CJ Stroud has been so damn impressive and it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon. Despite a bottom 5 rush attack, the Texans come in with the 4th most passing yards per game and have blown out their last two opponents (Jags and Steelers). Their defense has been surprisingly stout as well, giving up less than 20 PPG and holding opponent passing attacks under 200 YPG. As much as this is a bet on the Texans, it may be more of a bet against Desmond Ridder. I just don’t think Ridder has the tools to be an NFL QB and I could see him riding the pine in the back half of the season. Bijan can only do so much for these Falcons…and I don’t think they will seriously start searching for answers until the losses begin to pile up. I like the moneyline in this one, but i’m gonna hold on the two points just in case. Score Prediction: Texans 27 – Falcons 20.

Jacksonville Jaguars “@” Buffalo Bills (London Game)/Philadelphia Eagles @ LA Rams
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Bills Moneyline/Rams +9.5 (+100) (1 unit)

I told myself I was out on teasers after week 3, but my big dumb brain is back with a parlay that is basically a teaser. Allow me to make my case before you write this one off…

The Rams are home at Sofi for a matchup against a NFC favorite, the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly has unsurprisingly rattled off 4 wins to start the year against 4 mediocre teams (NE, MIN, TB, WAS). They’ve looked great in some spots but they’ve looked shaky in others, and I think their passing defense in particular will kill them in week 5. The Rams pass attack has been ridiculously effective all year as Matthew Stafford looks healthy as a horse and is whipping the ball all around the field. The offense as a whole continues to look more comfortable as the season progresses and I think they will expose the Eagles defense (260 pass yards allowed per game, 27th in the league). It also looks like they’ll adding Cooper Kupp to the mix this weekend too…woof. Even if I’m wrong, you gotta love holding 9.5 points. I just simply don’t think the Rams get blown out here no matter what. Score Prediction: Eagles 26 – Rams 23 

The Bills just dismantled the Dolphins in week 4 and they get the pleasure of flying overseas to take on the London Jaguars in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Typically I don’t like jumping on teams coming off a huge win, but this Bills team just seems so locked in. I might put them in a parlay every single week until they lose another game. Josh Allen has his eyes locked in on the MVP trophy, and this Buffalo defense looks as dominant as ever. I still have many questions about this Jags team after their awful start to the season and I’m not ready to call them “fixed” after beating Desmond Ridder last week. Score Prediction: Bills 30 – Jags 20

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders – Monday, 10/9 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 44.5 (-110) (1 unit)

I took the over in the Raiders game last week, and it took the Chargers going scoreless for the final 33 minutes of game time for me to miss the over by a TD. I’m going back to the well here for similar reasons. Both these defenses stink, they’re bottom 10 in points allowed and bottom 11 in yards allowed. Both offenses have not been all that impressive to start the year but if we’re lucky, Aiden O’Connell will get another start and Jordan Love should continue to look more competent for the Packers. 44.5 shouldn’t be too difficult to get to, so I’ll be rooting for a sloppy over. Score Prediction: Packers 28 – Raiders 24

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, 10/8 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Cowboys Total Points Under 20.5 (-106) (1 unit)

The Cowboys have played a bunch of crap teams so far this season and I think it’s time for a proper wake up call. I think this game will be low scoring on both sides, but I simply don’t see how the Cowboys will cross the 20 point mark after 60 minutes. Dak seems to always fold under pressure and this game will have both the bright lights of a marquee matchup along with an absolutely frightening 49ers front seven. San Francisco is elite at stopping the run and once they shut down Pollard and Co it will make Dak’s life a living hell trying to escape the pass rush. The 49ers have only allowed 23 points one time this year, and that was against the Rams (as mentioned earlier, they have an elite passing attack). Dak has been OK this year but not nearly as effective as Stafford. I like the 49ers in this one but I especially hate the Cowboys. Get ready for a lot of field goals. Score Prediction: 49ers 23 – Cowboys 12. 

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 4: 12-8, +5.275 units)

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders – Thursday, 10/5 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. Over 64.5 Rush Yards (-113) (1 unit)

Definitely was bitten by the props bug last week but still ended up finishing the week only -0.04 units so not shying away from a glaring opportunity out of Brian Robinson Jr. tonight facing off against a god awful Bears run defense. The Bears have allowed opposing rush offenses to post at least 92 rush yards per game this season (115.5 on average) and they just got shredded by Jaleel McLaughlin of the Broncos last week. Robinson owns the lion share of carries in this backfield compared to Antonio Gibson this season and he’s averaging 65.25 rushing yards per game currently. In a game that should feature a neutral game script (if not skewed towards the run for Washington if this game gets away from Chicago), I love Robinson to surpass this line with ease. Prop Prediction: 74 Rushing Yards.

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons/NY Giants @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Texans +7.5/Dolphins -6.5 (+101) (1 unit)

Calling this one my “Jet lag/Rebound” parlay of the week. The Falcons face off against a burgeoning Texans team this week after falling to the Jags across the pond. Historically teams play poorly directly falling London games due to their travel fatigue but honestly I think this Texans team could beat the Falcons even if Atlanta was at 100% right now. CJ Stroud is playing lights out and making Panthers fans everything regret taking Bryce Young over him, the Texans defense has taken a mighty step forward this season and Desmond Ridder absolutely does not look like the Dirty Birds’ franchise guy. I’m expecting Houston’s D to do a decent job containing Atlanta’s run game so the question really comes down to who do you feel better about between these two QBs…? Full confidence in the Texans to cover more than a TD in this one and there’s a great chance they win outright if you want to sprinkle a little bit on their moneyline. Score Prediction: Texans 23 – Falcons 17.

Miami is about to trounce the Giants this week at home after last week’s embarrassing showing against the Bills in one of the season’s first true battles for league supremacy. Miami outmatches the Giants on both sides of the ball and I truly think this one gets ugly quickly. Tua should pick this Giants secondary apart, the Miami run game has found life over the last 2-3 weeks and the Dolphins run game should be able to contain Saquon effectively (if Saquon even plays). I’ll take this Dolphins offense to cover a TD against most second tier teams in the league this year, the Giants absolutely being no exception. Score Prediction: Dolphins 31 – Giants 17.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, 10/8 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 38.5 (-110) (1 unit)

Rosters change every season but this matchup seems to stay the same every year. Ravens/Steelers matchup totals have finished below 38.5 points 5 out of the last 6 times these two teams have faced each other. Pitt’s defense is formidable once again with the return of JJ Watt (especially stopping the run game… the majority of Baltimore’s offense), Baltimore’s defense is also stingy against the run so far this season and the Steelers can’t move the ball through the air whatsoever (and Kenny Pickett is banged up/might not even play). All signs point to another traditional defensive slugfest in Pitt come Sunday. Score Prediction: Ravens 17 – Steelers 13.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals – Sunday, 10/8 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Bengals -3 (-104) (1 unit)

This has to be the ultimate buy low spot on the Bengals all year… There’s not a soul alive that could’ve guessed this would’ve been the line for this game coming into the season. Yes, Burrow is banged up and hasn’t been playing his best. No, I don’t believe the Cardinals are actually good contrary to their surprisingly decent play to start the season. This is definitely a gut check type of call given the Bengals slow play to start the season but Burrow should gradually continue to inch closer to his former self week by week and what better place to show that progress than in a must win game vs one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Bengals keep their playoff hopes alive this week and the Cardinals sink back down to where we expected them to be. Score Prediction: Bengals 24 – Cardinals 17.

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