Another month, another major… The best 4 month stretch in golf. Before we dive into the specs for the US Open, let’s reflect on Side Hustle Bets’ accomplishments in the golf space thus far.

PGA Major Betting Stats (through 6 majors)

• Predicted 4 out of the last 6 major champions prior to the start of play (we technically hedged Koepka’s victory last month as well).
  • 66.67% success rate (83.33% if you count our Brooksie hedge).
• Currently +22.09 units through 6 majors.
  • Averaging around +3.68 units per major.
• Profitable in 18 out of 24 major tournament rounds.
  • 75% success rate.
• Profitable over in 4 out of 6 major tournaments.
  • 66.67% success rate.
• +20.931 unit finish at the 2022 Masters alone.

The SHB brain trust clearly has their finger on the pulse and we’re just getting started.

Despite the absolute heater that SHB has enjoyed over the past 6 majors, we understand that some things are bigger than sports. That said, we’ll only be providing our favorite futures and prop bets for the US Open this week as I’ll be traveling to the Dominican Republic shortly to help impoverished youth in the area. Fret not, our futures bets and prop picks should lay the foundation for yet another successful weekend for all of our side hustlers.

Strap in for the third quarter of majors season, enjoy watching the best golfers in the world struggle to find their ball in the rough and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

The LA Country Club Recipe

This week The Los Angeles Country Club plays major host to the best golfers in the world for the first time in its history. Only a handful of players have any experience at this course whatsoever and the course’s lack of historical tournaments forces us to wear our subjective hats more than usual. The good news is that there’s a plethora of information available for every single hole on the course and it appears as though the venue should provide similar challenges to previous US Open championships. What does that mean for players this week? Hit fairways at all costs, be EXTREMELY precise with your approach shots and weather the mental storm that is the inevitable blow up hole.

2023 US Open Formula

Strokes Gained: Approach (31%) + Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (30%) + Strokes Gained: Around The Green (24%) + Strokes Gained: Putting (10%) + Driving Accuracy (5%) = 2023 US OPEN CHAMPION

Given the uncertainties that go along with a course’s big stage debut, we’re generalizing our formula a bit and leaning on the genius of Mark Broadie’s “strokes gained” statistics. This course is deceiving as it offers several scoring chances early on and becomes progressively more difficult as players make their way to the back nine. 

Dominance off the tee this week will be key (as you can tell by our 35% respect between SG: OTT and Driving Accuracy). Players will face numerous blind tee shots into tight fairways surrounded by comically thick rough all week. Accuracy off the tee, and really any advantages players can find off the tee compared to the field, will be paramount for success.

We’re allocating a hefty 31% of our formula to Strokes Gained: Approach this week since the greens are even more difficult to hit than the fairways. I’m sure you’ve all seen the social media videos of LACC’s greens throughout the week… Not only do players need to hit greens, they need to hit their exact spots if they don’t want their ball to roll 20 yards off the green. Expect the elite ball strikers to create separation from the field as the tournament rolls on.

Our final major allocation of the formula goes to Strokes Gained: Around The Green (24%) since every player is bound to miss the green eventually. The consistency with which players bounce back from those mis-hits and clean up to save par could be the difference between competing on Sunday vs simply trying to make it to Saturday. Rest assured, there’s no shortage of sand traps at Los Angeles Country Club…

Futures

Outright Winner

Player	Odds	Units
Scottie Scheffler	+750	0.25
Jon Rahm	+1100	0.2
Viktor Hovland	+1800	0.15
Max Homa	+3500	0.15
Patrick Cantlay	+1700	0.15
Tyrrell Hatton	+4000	0.1

OK, time for the good stuff… We here at Side Hustle Bets aren’t timid to call our shots (i.e. our Matt Fitzpatrick 2022 US Open prediction). Due to this fearlessness, we simply can’t help ourselves again this week. 

Max. Homa. Considered an underdog coming into this week to the untrained eye but an absolute pay day to anyone who’s watched his career progress over the last 2 years. Homa is so due to compete at a major tournament that it hurts. The guy already has 2 wins this year, 8 Top 10 finishes (including a runner up finish at The Genesis Invitational) and 11 Top 25 finishes in 16 starts. Homa has quickly become one of the most automatic players with a putter in his hand on tour, he ranks 25th in Strokes Gained: Approach in the field, he’s accurate off the tee and he ranks 18th in the field in total Strokes Gained. Stats aside, the Cali kid (played at Cal) absolutely tears up California golf courses… Homa finishes at California courses since 2021: T7, T21, 1st, T18, T10, MC, 2nd, 1st. You read that correctly… 2 victories, a runner up finish and basically 7 Top 20s in 8 tries. If those numbers aren’t enough to pique your interest, Homa has actually played LACC before at the PAC 12 Championship in 2013 (one of the only players in the field with any experience there whatsoever). And how did he do the last time he played there? He set the course record after shooting an absurd 61… Time for Homa to make the breakthrough at majors and what better place than his hometown?

Scheffler either ranks at the very top or within the top 10 in the field in every major statistical category but putting this week. His putting has been woeful as of late (115th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting) but his putter is simply a sleeping giant… If Scheffler can putt even half as well as he’s capable of then he’ll find himself atop the leaderboard throughout the week. Scottie consistently gives himself chances so the putts should start falling eventually. Scheffler is still arguably the best player in the world at the moment and you know he’s tired of watching majors slip through his fingers since his 2022 Masters victory. While we love Homa this week, Scottie tops the “favorites” field.

Viktor Hovland is bound to win a major sooner rather than later. He almost pulled it off last month at the PGA Championship if it wasn’t for one of the most unfortunate bunker shots in recent memory. How did Hovland respond to that massive let down? He followed it up with a T16 finish at the Charles Schwab Classic and a playoff victory at The Memorial. Unflappable… Hovland ranks 17th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and 7th in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (our two heaviest weighted categories this week). As long as Hovland can keep his game in check around the greens this week then he’s bound to contest on the weekend.

Jon Rahm’s advantage off the tee, elite ball striking and overall dominance this year make him a must have on the “Outright Winner” bet slip this week. He’s over the post major victory slump since winning the Masters in April and he appears determined to remain world #1. Don’t forget, the 2021 US Open was the first major championship victory of his career. He ranks 13th in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, 8th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and he’s 2nd on tour in total Strokes Gained. Don’t be surprised to see a bounce back from the gritty Spaniard this week after a poor showing at the PGA Championship last month.

Patrick Cantlay may not be the sexiest pick of the week but we’d be foolish to fade him. Cantlay is familiar with the course having played his college golf at UCLA, he’s starting to finally play better in majors and realistically his game is built for this course. He ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (not to mention 4th in Driving Accuracy) and he’s inside the top 25 of the field for both Strokes Gained: Approach/Strokes Gained: Around The Green. Cantlay might play slow, but that might actually play into his favor in a war of attrition type tournament like the US Open. I honestly shouldn’t even say that he’s “finally” starting to play better in majors… Cantlay has finished T8, T14, T14, T9 in his last 4 major starts… Expect for Cantlay to hang around throughout the weekend.

Tyrrell Hatton has played relatively spotty in majors historically but the Englishman has been absolutely on fire since April. Hatton followed up a somewhat disappointing T34 place finish at the Masters with 6 Top 20 finishes in a row (3 of which were Top 5 finishes). He might have the most balanced all around game in the field heading into the week and he ranks 6th in the field for total Strokes Gained. Hatton has quickly become one of the best players in the world without a major championship and he enters this major on a heater… Sounds dangerous for the field.

Top 20

Player	Odds	Units
Xander Schauffele	-120	1
Max Homa	+130	0.5
Tyrrell Hatton	+140	0.5
Cameron Smith	+120	0.5
Bryson DeChambeau	+175	0.5

I’ve already covered Homa and Hatton extensively so I’ll jump right into our other three favorite Top 20 bets for the week.

Xander Schauffele is a majors Top 20 machine, plain and simple. Fun fact… Schauffele has never finished worse than T14 at a US Open in his entire career (through 5 starts). That. Is. Ridiculous. In those 5 US Opens he’s finished T5, T6, T3, 5th and T14. Truly mind blowing. He enters this week as one of the best ball strikers on the planet with a hot putter and a beautifully balanced game across all statistical categories. I’ve slowly lost some faith in him to lift the actual trophy at the end of the week but I have all the faith in the world for him to finish within striking distance.

Cam Smith and DeChambeau feature as our favorite LIV players to make some noise at LACC this week. For some reason people seem to be sleeping on Smith despite his solid showing at the PGA Championship last month and the fact that he probably has the best short game in the world. Cameron Smith under the radar = extremely dangerous. DeChambeau also appears to be flying under the radar despite having already won a US Open and possessing the strength to virtually negate rough regardless of thickness. Bryson’s game plan is clear at these courses… Grip it and rip it. He doesn’t seem to care about accuracy because he typically can still reach the green out of the rough either way. That strength has correlated to his #1 ranking in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 20th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. Love him or hate him, DeChambeau could very well follow up his T4 finish at the PGA Championship last month with a spirited effort in LA this week.

Props

Top Australian

Player	Odds	Units
Cameron Smith	+200	0.5
Adam Scott	+350	0.4
Min Woo Lee	+2000	0.1

Love spreading a unit across this group considering their only real competition is Marc Leishman. I’ve already spoken volumes about Cam Smith and I fully expect him to win this prop for us but I’m sprinkling some fractional units on the savvy veteran Adam Scott and the young gun Min Woo Lee as well to be safe. Scott has finished T14, T38 and T7 in his last 3 US Opens and he’s coming off 3 Top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts so he’s more than worthy of the hedge. Min Woo Lee is oozing with raw talent so the 0.1 units at +2000 odds is too juicy to pass up.

Top Continental European

Player	Odds	Units
Jon Rahm	+170	0.5
Viktor Hovland	+350	0.5

I’ll honestly probably continue to take this prop for every major in the foreseeable future… Between Rahm and Hovland you get two of the best players in the world and a virtual lock for a top 20 finish. The next best competition is Adrian Meronk and Sergio Garcia/Sepp Straka? Straka may have played well in the PGA Championship… but I like my odds with Rahm/Hovland.

Top LIV

Player	Odds	Units
Brooks Koepka	+225	0.4
Cameron Smith	+450	0.4
Bryson DeChambeau	+650	0.2

I was tempted to fully fade Koepka this week coming off of his PGA Championship victory last month but it is the US Open and Brooks is clearly back in majors form. I love either Cameron Smith or DeChambeau to win this group but adding Koepka to the list makes this feel automatic. Smith and DeChambeau are next up as far as LIV players with something to prove and/or remind the world.

Top South American

Player	Odds	Units
Mito Pereira	+200	0.5
Joaquin Niemann	+240	0.5

Mito Pereira quietly put together a solid PGA Championship last month (T18 finish) and he’s coming off a 3rd place finish at LIV’s last tournament in DC in May. He’s inside the top 10 of the field for both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and he knows what it feels like to be in contention at a major (PAINFUL memories from last year’s PGA Championship). I like Mito to win this group but it only felt right to hedge it a bit with his childhood buddy Joaquin Niemann given his power off the tee. Next best competition is Emiliano Grillo and Sebastian Munoz? I’ll take it.

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