Fret not! SHB to the rescue before you miss the deadline to place your PGA Championship future bets for this weekend. 

Not that we’re keeping score or anything… but SHB is now 4 for 5 predicting outright winners in major championships (+1.81 units overall for the 2023 Masters) and who can forget our +20.931 units finish at Augusta in 2022???

Success aside, we’re locked in once again. Oak Hill poses a true challenge to the traditional SHB brain trust process this week. We can’t simply reverse engineer prior success at the historical East Course due to SIGNIFICANT renovations to the classic venue over the past year. Regardless of what you hear, virtually every single player teeing it up this week will be playing this new course format for the first time competitively in their careers this weekend. Challenge. Accepted. Enjoy our PGA Championship future bets, enjoy watching the best golfers in the world contemplate “lightening their caddie’s load” all tournament (out of frustration) and as always… bet smarter, not harder.

Futures

Outright Winner

Player	Odds	Units
Scottie Scheffler	+800	0.25
Jon Rahm	+800	0.25
Xander Schauffele	+1700	0.15
Patrick Cantlay	+1900	0.2
Sungjae Im	+3500	0.15

Let’s be honest… This tournament definitely feels like Scottie Scheffler’s to lose. The guy has “career grand slam” written all over him and, by my calculations, one major per season will achieve just that. He tops off our projections this week due to his superiority off the tee (#1 in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee), his elite ball striking (#8 in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach), his consistent Par 4 play (lowest Par 4 Scoring Average in the field) and his ability to avoid bogies at all costs (#1 in Bogey Avoidance in the field). Lest we forgot… Scheffler recently lost his spot atop the world rankings AND he had a poor showing at the PGA Championship last year after winning his first major championship at Augusta (at his self proclaimed “favorite course in the world”). Motivation to come out firing this week at Oak Hill? I believe so. 

I won’t spend too much time explaining why Jon Rahm makes the list of outright winner candidates this week simply because this man requires no introduction at the moment. He earned his second major championship at Augusta last month, meaning the world is now his oyster. Until Rahmbo starts showing signs of cooling down (who was listed in our outright winner picks for last month’s Masters, I might add), you’d be foolish not to hedge your bets with the Spaniard. 

Will he win a major championship outright? Yes, at some point. Will it be this week? Who knows. That said… Xander Schauffele is literally ALWAYS in the conversation and he’s probably the most talented player in the world without a major. Doesn’t a PGA Championship just feel right for the San Diego State alum? If Schauffele can put the ball in the fairway then his elite ball striking places him at the top of leaderboard during the weekend… a position he’s all too comfortable with at this point.

As a predictive sports analytics expert, I simply cannot hold grudges over historically spilt milk… Enter Patrick Cantlay. Despite his slow play and average performance in majors over the recent years, he’s due. Cantlay is the exact type of slow burn that can win these type of tournaments (the PGA Championship should be an absolute war of attrition this year) and his stats don’t lie leading up to this week. He has a clear advantage off the tee (#2 in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee in the field), he attacks Par 4s (second lowest Par 4 Scoring Average in the field), he doesn’t panic when he misses greens and his putter has come to life as of late. Not the sexiest pick, but one you very well might regret not hedging with come Sunday. 

SUNGJAE IM. The SHB diehards already know my affinity toward the often “slept on” elite ball striker but does the public understand how much he’s improved his ability around the greens (12th in the field in Scrambling, 13th in Strokes Gained: Around The Green)??? A player like Sungjae Im is absolutely capable of shocking the world at a location like Oak Hill (where hitting your spots is paramount and being capable of recovering when you don’t is even more important) if he can make a few putts. Add him to the list of talented players on tour still chasing their first major championship as well as your outright winner betslip this week.

Top 20

Player	Odds	Units
Xander Schauffele	-110	0.75
Jason Day	+110	0.75
Max Homa	+210	0.5
Tom Kim	+260	0.5

Value bet on Schauffele here at -110 odds to only finish inside the top 20 (he’s finished inside the top 20 in his last 4 major starts). Don’t forget, he’s the only Gold Medalist in Olympic golf history!

I was hoping for a little more value on Jason Day at this number but it makes sense given his win at the AT&T Byron Nelson last week. Masters meltdown aside, Day has experienced an impressive resurgence over the past year and the Aussie has become an absolute top 25 finish machine in 2023 (12 top 25 finishes in only 16 starts). If it wasn’t for Day’s struggles off the tee as of late (as well as the curse of winning the most recent tournament) he’d probably find himself inside our outright winner picks for the week. That said, he’s a magician around the greens (a great trait to have at Oak Hill), he’s resilient and his putter is on fire at the moment.

Max Homa is another one of those “not if, but when” type of picks. I promise you he’ll sneak his way into our outright winner picks for this year’s US Open (since he slays every California course he plays and he’s on fire) but I’m only comfortable listing him as a top 20 bet this week at Oak Hill due to his inconsistent performance in majors historically and his struggles off the tee this season. Max, if you’re reading this, I’m not fading you… I’m just building you up for the US Open in June (11th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach, 8th lowest Par 4 Scoring Average in the field and a sorcerer around the greens). 

Tom Kim caps off our trendy “sleeper” futures picks of the week but I’m still scratching my head as to the odds Vegas is gifting us. Kim is clearly one of the best ball strikers on tour, he’s starting to find his groove in majors and he rarely makes mistakes around the green (#5 in the field in Scrambling). His putting needs some work but if he’s able to hit his spots at Oak Hill then the field could be in for a rude awakening. 

Top 40

Player	Odds	Units
Keegan Bradley	+155	0.5
Justin Rose	+160	0.5

So I recognize that I might just be in awe of the longevity that is Justin Rose but here’s a few stats to get you on the same page (keep in mind, he’s 42)… Rose has finished inside the top 40 in his last four straight starts (3 top 25 finishes and a T6 finish at the Players Championship) and he’s finished inside the top 40 in 14/20 PGA Championships (70%). Given his age, most would assume those missed cuts at the PGA Championship have probably come recently. Nope. He hasn’t missed a cut at a PGA Championship since 2017 and before that it was 2011… Justin Rose WON the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February and he posted a top 20 finish at Augusta this year. The vet still has some juice and the major experience to back up at least a top 40 finish at Oak Hill this week.

This Keegan Bradley pick is heavily influenced by his Northeastern background. We saw it in the 2022 US Open at Brookline and I suspect we’ll see a similar effort at Oak Hill in 2023. Bradley has finished inside the top 40 in 3 out of his last 4 starts on tour and he always seems to have more to play for in majors in that region of the country (understandable). Don’t be surprised to see a spirited effort that starts to fizzle out during the weekend (but still easily landing in the top 40).

Top LIV Golfer

Player	Odds	Units
Brooks Koepka	+350	0.5
Dustin Johnson	+400	0.3
Cameron Smith	+550	0.2

Only listing one prop bet for this major but wow does it feel like easy money… Koepka has enjoyed a career renaissance as of late (especially in majors) and DJ has a massive advantage off the tee this week. Between those two giants and arguably the best short game specialist in the entire world (Cam Smith), this one feels like for a profitable payout lock.

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