NFL Week 16 Bets

Nothing like some Christmas parlay miracles to get you in the holiday spirit. Unlike Santa, we couldn’t care less if you’ve been naughty or nice… Let’s get PAID this holiday season. Monitor the eggnog intake if you’re going to be live betting, ugly Christmas sweaters DO impact the outcome of games and have the courage not to hedge your bets against your fantasy football matchups over the next two weeks. Happy holidays from MJQ headquarters and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 15: 20-28 Overall, -5.213 Units Total)

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans – Saturday, 12/24 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Derrick Henry Total Rush Yards Over 103.5 (-105) (1 unit)

Derrick Henry owns the Houston Texans, plain and simple. In his last 3 games against Houston, Henry has put up 681 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs…… (227 yard/2 TD average, 219 yards and 2 TDs earlier this season in Week 8). The Titans currently maintain a 0.5 game lead in the AFC South over the Jags with just the Cowboys and Jags left to play after Houston this week. As long as Tennessee (7-7) and Jacksonville (7-8) have the same record when they play again in Week 18, it should be a winner take all type scenario. Given the fact that the Jags (who won on Thursday) play the Texans before they face Tennessee again… seems like there’s a great chance they’ll be 8-8 heading into that matchup. Considering the fact that the Titans (who are on a 4 game losing streak) play the Cowboys next week before their Week 18 matchup with the Jags… this matchup against the Texans is virtually a must win in order to play the Jags at 8-8. Tannehill is likely out for the rest of the season meaning rookie Malik Willis will once again be under center. The Texans have the worst run defense in the entire NFL. Rookie QB + 200+ rush yard average RB + worst rush defense in the league + must win situation for the Titans = HAMMER KING HENRY RUSH PROPS THIS WEEK. Rush Yard Prediction: 155 Yards.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers – Saturday, 12/24 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Lions -2.5 (-110) (1 unit)

I hate to keep fading my Panthers but the goal here is to be profitable (no offense Panther country). The Lions are playing solid football right now on both sides of the ball and Carolina still doesn’t have a QB (don’t kid yourself, Darnold). Detroit’s defense has stepped up its game over the past few weeks, even its lowly secondary has improved drastically. Detroit should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air now that Goff has most of his WRs healthy. The Lions are on a 4-1 heater right now with Dan Campbell aggressively leading a postseason charge while the Panthers are only 5-9 on the season and in playoff contention simply because the NFC South is truly terrible this year. Betting on the hot hand this week to keep their playoff dreams alive (still love you Carolina). Score Prediction: Lions 24 – Panthers 20.

Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins – Sunday, 12/25 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Packers +7.5, Aaron Rodgers Total TD Passes Over 1.5 (+195) (1 unit)

Yes, you read that correctly. I’m so bullish on this parlay that I’m placing a FULL UNIT ON IT. Merry. Christmas. The Dolphins have been exposed and the Packers, believe it or not, are built to capitalize. Over the last few weeks it’s become clear that this Miami offense is far from lethal once you take away the pass game and force them to beat you on the ground. Take Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle away and you get vintage Tua… average at best. Green Bay’s secondary is fantastic and absolutely has the ability to shut both speedsters down. The Dolphins secondary is atrocious and Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers despite the down year and he’s finally playing with a close to fully healthy offense. Christian Watson is a star, Allen Lazard has been old faithful and Romeo Doubs has the makings of an elite player. Oh, and you still have one of the best catch passing RBs in the league in Aaron Jones complemented by bruiser AJ Dillon. Both teams are banged up, both teams have playoff aspirations and both teams have a Super Bowl QB under center… oh wait… that’s just Green Bay. Forget the year up to this point, trust in Rodgers to put the team on his back on Christmas and keep Green Bay’s wildcard hopes alive. Score Prediction: Packers 27 – Dolphins 24.

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears/Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs/Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Bills Moneyline, Chiefs Moneyline, Bucs Moneyline (-110) (1 unit)

The Bills would win their division with a win over the Bears this week and they are still entrenched in a battle with Kansas City for the AFC’s #1 overall seed (which provides a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs). The Bills should be able to contain the Bears run game and they should also be able to move the ball offensively at will (on the ground or through the air). Score Prediction: Bills 24 – Bears 13.

Patrick Mahomes is having an MVP year and the Chiefs offense should absolutely smoke every aspect of Seattle’s defense. Seattle was a nice Cinderella story at the start of the season but that feel good story has been aggressively regressing back to the mean lately and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll be able to keep up with KC offensively in order to keep this one competitive. As mentioned before, the Chiefs are eyeing the #1 spot in the AFC and would love the chance to overtake the Bills should they stumble down the stretch. Score Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Seahawks 20.

As terrible as Tom Brady and the Bucs have looked this year, they’ll likely still luck their way into the postseason (in true TB12 style) and I have zero faith in a Trace McSorley led Cardinals squad that has already been eliminated from playoff contention. Tough pill to swallow but bet on the GOAT to inch NFC South leading Tampa ever so closer to postseason play on Christmas Day. Score Prediction: Bucs 20 – Cardinals 13.

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns/Denver Broncos @ LA Rams/Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Saints/Browns Total Points Over 26.5, Broncos/Rams Total Points Under 47.5, Commanders/49ers Total Points Under 51 (-110) (1 unit)

The actual total number for this Saints/Browns matchup is closer to 32 because of the weather but I simply don’t think it’s possible for this total to go under 26.5. Not only would that be borderline historic, but it would also require the Saints run defense to stop the Browns run game… a task few teams have accomplished all year and the Saints run defense is horrid. Deshaun Watson is going to continue to get more comfortable with this offense on a weekly basis so I’m very comfortable taking the over on 26.5 points in this matchup. Score Prediction: Browns 17 – Saints 13.

Any time you get the opportunity to fade not only Russell Wilson, but Russell Wilson AND Baker Mayfield??? Jumping all over that all day, every day of the week. Both of these offenses are disgusting, both defenses are unfortunately solid (unfortunate in the sense that they’re both stuck on teams without offenses) and neither team has a prayer at making the playoffs. I refuse to actually watch this game, it should be so ugly… Score Prediction: Broncos 20 – Rams 17.

Who in their right mind would fade the high flying 49ers offense right now? *Pointing both thumbs at myself* THIS GUY. Let’s start with the obvious, the Commanders will have trouble against San Fran’s defense on every level for the entire game. The 49ers defensive unit is arguably the best in the league, they should give Heinicke nightmares for years to come and they play great at home. Now for Washington… People are heavily sleeping on how good this Commanders defense is. They are great at stopping the run, their secondary is stingy and they’re currently allowing less than 20 points per game to opposing offenses. Not to mention, Mr. Irrelevant rookie QB Brock Purdy will once again be under center but he won’t have Deebo Samuel to throw to and the Commanders allow the fewest yards to TEs in the league (effectively taking away George Kittle from the rook as well). I think the 49ers still win this one, maybe, but I definitely see this as a low scoring affair. Pray for a snooze fest. Score Prediction: 49ers 20 – Commanders 17.

***LATE ADDITION*** LA Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts – Monday, 12/26 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: 2 Way Parlay: Austin Ekeler Total Receptions Over 4.5, Austin Ekeler 25+ Receiving Yards (+155) (1 unit)

Not a huge fan of late additions but this prop parlay is too juicy to resist. Just to clarify… Ekeler is probably the best catch passing RB in the league right now, he’s averaging over 6.5 receptions per game/over 6.5 yards per reception and the Colts are allowing over 5 receptions per game to RBs this season. The Chargers absolutely need to win this game so Ekeler will be on full display and most of the sharp money is coming in on Indy indicating that this game should be closer than people think. Just for context, Ekeler would have hit this exact prop in 4 of his last 6 games. Perfect Monday night buffer to right some wrongs from this past weekend *cough* Aaron Rodgers *cough*. Prop Predictions: 6 Receptions, 41 Receiving Yards.

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 15: 30-32-1 Overall, -2.98 Units Total)

Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots – Saturday, 12/24 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Bengals -3 (-110) (1 unit)

The Bengals have completely rounded into form, after starting the season 0-2 they now sit at 10-4 heading into week 16. Burrow somehow looks better week-to-week and the defense is like an ever-evolving amoeba that comes well prepared each game and is dynamic with its in-game adjustments. The AFC is crowded this year but I see no reason why Cincy isn’t up there with the Chiefs and Bills as title favorites. The Patriots are quite the opposite, while their defense is looking as sharp as ever they seem to have one of the worst offenses in the league. And that should be shocking to absolutely nobody, this team was doomed the minute they gave Matt Patricia the keys to the offense. I don’t even want to imagine what Patriots practice looked like this week after the Jakobi Meyers debacle in week 15 but I’m of the opinion that there is no saving this New England team. Score Prediction: Bengals 27 – Patriots 23.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys – Saturday, 12/24 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Eagles +5.5 (-110) (1 unit)

What a week it’s been for this Eagles team with the fallout of Jalen Hurts’ sprained shoulder. On Monday morning this line was sitting at +2, and with the initial news that Jalen could miss significant time it jumped to +6, then settled in around +5 with confirmation that it is *just* a sprained shoulder and he could even be available this Saturday. He has now been officially ruled out with the line creeping back up to 5.5 and could eventually hit 6 again. I have supreme confidence that Gardner Minshew can step in and not only cover this spread for Philly but potentially pull off the upset. He’ll be playing with the spirit of Mike Leach on his side and the Eagles run game along with their defense have plenty of firepower to keep this one inside of a possession. Score Prediction: Eagles 28 – Cowboys 27.

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears/Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs/Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Bills Moneyline, Chiefs Moneyline, 49ers Moneyline (-105) (1 unit)

Buffalo has now one five in a row and their season is fully back on track after beating the Dolphins in a picture perfect snow game last Sunday. I still have some concerns about how far this team can go in the playoffs without a ton of star power on defense (except for Matt Milano, that guy’s a beast). They should however have no problems handling the Bears on the road in Chicago. The Bears look incredibly beatable and while they can hang around in some games they have shown zero ability to put together a game winning drive or stop. Score Prediction: Bills 31 – Bears 24.

The Chiefs just continue to show that they can handle any bad team in 2022. They weaseled their way out of a potential huge upset in Houston and now get a home game against the Seahawks who have been struggling mightily. I loved this Seahawks team early in the season but they’ve been bad for a few weeks now. Geno Smith can only get you so far, and the defense is not going to slow Mahomes down enough to keep him in this game. Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 – Seahawks 17.

Watching this 49ers defense week after week is such a treat. San Fran has now won seven in a row and they haven’t allowed more than 20 points since the Chiefs came to town on Oct 23rd and womped them. Brock Purdy looks plenty skilled to flourish in Kyle Shanahan’s offense and while the Commanders defense should be a good test for him I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball well enough to lessen the burden on Purdy. More than anything, I can already see Taylor Heinicke throwing at least one pick six against this defense. He’s a risk taker and this defense will make him pay. Score Prediction: 49ers 24 – Commanders 13.

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers – Saturday, 12/24 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Lions -2.5 (-110) (1 unit)

There is no doubt in my mind that the Lions should be a heavier favorite than just 2.5 points on the road in Carolina. Oftentimes that will scare me away from a bet, but I’m going to hop on these red-hot Lions and see if they can make this their seventh win in their last eight games. They sit at 7-7 on the season with their remaining games @ CAR, vs CHI, and @ GB. There is a very real chance that they could finish 10-7 and sit comfortably in one of the NFC wildcard spots. That may or may not land them in a road game @ SF to open the playoffs so let’s enjoy these Lions while we still can. If they continue to protect the pocket for Jared Goff and further integrate Deandre Swift back into the offense they should have no problem with the Panthers. Score Prediction: Lions 30 – Panthers 21.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals – Sunday, 12/25 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 41 (-110) (1 unit)

This game should be absolutely disgusting. Colt McCoy has officially been ruled out which means we’re getting Trace McSorely or David Blough under center for AZ, or some combo of the two. What a dumpster fire this season has been for the Cardinals. Tampa limped their way to 23 points in week 15 after nearly being shut out in the second half by the Bengals defense. I’m not buying that they have figured out their offense issues yet, and I’d expect the struggles to continue in Glendale. Even if the Bucs score as many as 30 points I don’t anticipate the Cardinals cracking double digits, which bodes well for under 41. This game isn’t even worth wasting three hours of your day watching so plug in your under bet and count your winnings after the clock strikes 0:00. Score Prediction: Bucs 24 – Cardinals 9.

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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