Well we have no one to blame but ourselves for placing any trust whatsoever in Tom Brady last week… You’d think the Tuck Rule, Spygate and Deflategate would’ve taught us better by now but I guess not… I can’t lie though, it is fun watching him throw temper tantrums on the sideline every game. Don’t worry, DPJ and I aren’t a couple of Tom Bradys. Instead of throwing a hissy fit about some of the bad beats that came our way in Week 7, we’re buckling down and setting up what should be one of the more talked about sports betting comebacks in recent memory. The money bus may have stopped for gas last week but we’re back on the freeway to retirement. Don’t be a Tom Brady, and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 7: 8-12 Overall, -3.393 Units Total)
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 10/30 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: 3 Way Parlay: Tua Tagovailoa 250+ Pass Yards, Jaylen Waddle 40+ Receiving Yards, Tyreek Hill 50+ Receiving Yards (-120) (1 unit)
I don’t usually like placing prop parlay bets but this matchup is too good to resist. When Tua is under center the Dolphins have been electric other than last week (and the week of his concussion) and he’s averaging close to 300 passing yards/game (games that he actually played to entirety). Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have feasted on secondaries all season (Hill is averaging over 110 receiving yards/game, Waddle is averaging over 88 receiving yards/game) and the Lions should be no exception. The Lions come into the game near the bottom of the league in DVOA against deep passing and they’re facing arguably the fastest WR unit in football on Sunday. Good luck. Predictions: Tua – 300+ Pass Yards, Waddle – 70+ Receiving Yards, Hill – 100+ Receiving Yards.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings/Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles/Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Cardinals +14.5, Eagles -2.5, Bills -2.5 (-115) (1 unit)
I’ll keep this summary short since DPJ hits on a lot of these points as well and it’s a three team parlay.
The Cardinals are a vastly different team with Deandre Hopkins vs without him. As we saw last week, Kyler and Nuk are starting to click again which should be terrifying for the rest of the league. This Cardinals defense is stingy and Kirk Cousins is a wet blanket, especially when playing in tight games. AZ covering 2 TDs feels like a no brainer, they might even win this game outright. Score Prediction: Vikings 24 – Cardinals 21.
Philly is an absolute train and the Steelers are average at best with one of the worst offensive lines in football who can’t protect their rookie QB. Expect this Philly pass rush to cause havoc, expect this Philly secondary to capitalize on the mistakes Pickett makes because of that Philly pass rush and expect Jalen Hurts and this high flying Philly offense to get whatever they want against this TJ Watt-less Steelers defense on Sunday. Score Prediction: Eagles 27 – Steelers 13.
It always makes me nervous fading a great veteran QB like Aaron Rodgers but I think it’s officially time to clarify the Packers as a bad team. Buffalo is better in literally every facet of football, the Packers are banged up on both sides of the ball but they’ve looked terrible even when healthy and this will be a Sunday night game in Buffalo. All signs point to a Bills victory at the very least so covering a field goal feels like a steal. Score Prediction: Bills 31 – Packers 17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns – Monday, 10/31 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Bengals -3 (-110) (1 unit)
Sir Joseph Burrow has this Bengals offense hummin’ and I don’t expect that intensity to change on Monday night in prime time against a struggling Browns team in the Battle for Ohio. Cincinnati is finally looking like the team I was expecting them to be and Cleveland feels like they’ve been in a holding pattern for Deshaun Watson for most of the season. The Bengals are a little banged up (DJ Reader is still dealing with a knee injury) so the Browns will probably see some success in the run game but the Bengals do get Hendrickson back and this offense is so electric that it should be hard for Cleveland to keep up if this evolves into a shootout. I know what you’re thinking, but what about Ja’Marr Chase missing time? The best part about having the best WR unit in the NFL is that one player doesn’t make or break the squad… Tee Higgins (otherwise known as WR 1B) and Tyler Boyd should both step up in Chase’s absence and with Njoku potentially missing time with a high ankle sprain (and Jadeveon Clowney/Myles Garrett both questionable) I feel comfortable banking on the hottest QB in the league right now to keep the momentum rolling. Who Dey. Score Prediction: Bengals 27 – Browns 20.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 7: 11-17 Overall, -6.24 Units Total)
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, 10/30 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Vikings -3.5 (-110) (1 unit)
The Vikings are 5-1 through their first six games in 2022, yet here they sit as just a 3.5 point favorite over the Cardinals at home in Minnesota. That is the devil you dance with when Kirk Cousins is under center. AZ had a season-saving win last week on the road in NOLA, and that doesn’t happen without Andy Dalton gifting them 14 points and every ounce of momentum. All I took away from that game is that Andy Dalton is still Andy Dalton, and this Cardinals team is simply not very good. Yeah they may have D-Hop back but I don’t think that solves all their problems. The Cards will need to find a way to run the ball, and Minny is a respectable 14th in the league in rush yards allowed per game (112 yards). The Cards are also a bottom five team when it comes to converting 3rd downs (33.7%/28th in the league) and the Vikings defense is great on third down (8th in the league). I’m expecting more frustrated Kyler Murray on the sidelines and this game will put Kliff further on the hot seat. I also can’t write this paragraph without mentioning COD Modern Warfare II came out this week so we all know what Kyler has been doing instead of studying film. Score Prediction: Vikings 27 – Cardinals 20.
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 10/30 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Under 51.5 (-110) (1 unit)
Four weeks ago I would have circled this game as a big over spot. Fastfoward to today and both of these offenses are looking incredibly anemic. The Lions have completely lost their footing on offense, I think Swift returning will help but I don’t expect that to entirely turn them around. They have scored 6 total points in their last two games! I figure Dan Campbell is feeling the season slipping away and will try and dig his heels with the defense. The Dolphins on the other hand have an extremely fragile QB under center and he could be one hit away from us seeing Teddy Bridgewater. Tua did not look all that comfortable last week and MIA couldn’t get the ball in the endzone against a pretty bad Steelers defense. I think this is a big number to get to considering how these offenses have looked, thinking we can go way under here. Score Prediction: Dolphins 20 – Lions 17.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans – Sunday, 10/30 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Titans -2 (-110) (1 unit)
Don’t look now but the Titans are 4-2 and should seemingly cruise to another AFC South title. The worst division in football over the last few years is looking as bad as ever. Tennessee’s offense has looked god awful for stretches this year but I think they’ll build off the post bye week momentum after crushing the soul of the Colts (and Matt Ryan’s career) last week vs. Indy. Plus I think this is almost the reverse of a look-ahead spot. The Titans get the Chiefs next week, so I’d like to think they approach this game in must-win mode before they fly to KC to get pantsed by Mahomes. Houston may have tricked us through the first third of the year as they tied the Colts and beat the Jags. I’m ready to start fading them for the rest of the season and I think this is a game where we are reminded that they are one of the worst three teams in the NFL. Score Prediction: Titans 24 – Texans 10.
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills/Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles/Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Bills -0.5, Eagles -1, Cowboys -0.5 (-120) (1.5 units)
Nothing crazy here, going to a tried and true method of teasing down the three biggest spreads of the week. Good teams playing crappy teams, simple as that. The Bills get the scrubby Packers in Buffalo, I don’t see them struggling in this one for a single minute coming off a bye week. Easy W. Similarly, the Eagles are coming off a bye and get the Steelers at home in Philly. This game will serve as a World Series break for Phillies fans as the Fall Classic takes a day off between games two and three, so the vibes should be high in Philly as the fans wait for their boys to come back home for a World Series game. Another easy W. The Cowboys get the Bears in Dallas, who just got a season-defining victory over the Pats in Foxboro. I would be shocked if the Bears even thought about the game plan all week after that one, and the league’s best defense aka the Cowboys should handle them just fine. A third easy W. If you’re keeping track of the score here, that is three easy Ws. Cumulative Score Predictions: Bills, Eagles and Cowboys 96 – Packers, Steelers and Bears 40.
San Francisco 49ers @ LA Rams – Sunday, 10/30 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Rams +1.5 (-110) (1 unit)
The 49ers head to Levi’s Stadium South to take on the Rams in Sofi in what has basically become a home game for SF. As a lifelong Rams fan of 6 years I know as well as anyone how much Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay’s brain. I was shocked (in a happy way) that the Rams beat the Niners in the NFC Championship game but it felt like fools gold. This game should have a much different feel to it though. Swiss army knife Deebo Samuel is out, along with star fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Two players that have played key roles in dominating the Rams. On the other side of the ball, Arik Armstead and Dre Greenlaw are also out with Jason Verett questionable, more key players missing on this stout Niners D. If there was ever a chance for McVay to finally pull himself out of the locker that Shanahan keeps stuffing him in, this is the game. The Rams are coming off a bye and should be viewing this as a pivotal game in the season. With the NFC West in a seemingly down year, every single win is as valuable as ever. Score Prediction: Rams 20 – 49ers 13.
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