First round is out of the way and boy do we feel good about where we stand going into Friday… We finished +2.593 units on the day Thursday (making us profitable in 11 out of 13 rounds this year/bringing our season total to +23.868 units) and virtually every single one of our initial futures bets are sitting pretty currently.
The weather played somewhat of a factor on Thursday (early morning groups gaining a slight advantage over the later groups) but we don’t expect the weather to be a huge variable tomorrow. We’re zeroing in on mismatches and redemption rounds from elite players heading into Friday. Trust the logic, enjoy the most iconic course in golf and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
2nd Round Bets
2nd Round Matchups
Hideki Matsuyama (-135) (1 unit) vs Kevin Kisner
Matsuyama played decently on Thursday and he could have easily posted a lower score if it wasn’t for a couple of holes getting away from him on the back nine. Matsuyama and Kisner aren’t in the same league in regards to talent, Matsuyama has the 5th lowest 2nd Round Scoring Average on tour (Kisner ranks 73rd in that respect) and Matsuyama hasn’t posted a second round score worse than his opening round score at a major since 2019. Considering the fact that Kisner posted a +2 finish today and he’s never shot better than a 71 at St. Andrews in his entire career (the score that Matsuyama posted today)… I like our odds with this matchup heading into Friday.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+125) (0.6 units) vs Max Homa (+150) (0.4 units) vs Tiger Woods
It’s hard for me to bet against Tiger two days in a row but it’s also hard to look at his round on Thursday and think he’ll be able to produce much of a move compared to the rest of his group. Realistically, it appears as though Tiger has quite a few cobwebs to shake off before he’s back to true playing form and fighting to make the cut tomorrow seems like somewhat of a pipe dream at this point. Fitzpatrick has to be disappointed with his opening round on Thursday yet he’s still only 8 shots off the lead currently so you know he’ll be motivated to right the ship come Friday morning. Max Homa has been super vocal about how it’s always been his dream to play with Tiger Woods at a major so he definitely won’t want to post back to back over par rounds in front of his hero/playing with Tiger might be exactly what Homa needs mentally to finally make a breakthrough into contention at a major. Spreading another unit across Fitzpatrick/Homa to be safe and crossing my fingers that I haven’t forsaken the golf gods by fading one of the all time greats two days in a row.
2nd Round Props
Will Zalatoris – To Shoot Under 71.5 (+105) (1 unit): Taking Zalatoris to break even tomorrow after posting a disappointing 73 on Thursday feels like an absolute no-brainer. The guy only has a handful of over par rounds at majors in his entire career up to this point… He’ll definitely come out firing tomorrow in a group that could see low numbers across the board (Finau plays fantastic at links courses and Matsuyama is a wildcard who could post the low round of the tournament any given day). It’s hard to picture the weekend at a major championship without Zalatoris at this point and he should have a very good idea as to where the cut line stands on Friday so expect to see the Texan dialed in tomorrow.
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