NFL Super Bowl Bets

The battle of the first overall picks is upon us. Old school vs new school in what could very likely be one of the better (and unlikely) matchups in Super Bowl history. First, I’d like to take the opportunity to thank all of our supporters who have rode the lightning with us from Week 1… Let’s finish strong together. Second, I’d like to offer condolences to Browns fans everywhere… Sometimes life dishes out a Super Bowl that will either result in your rival winning it all or a polarizing player you let go earning a ring the very same year you “cut out the cancer”. Hey, doesn’t mean you can’t profit from your fandom despair right? DPJ and I have cooked up quite a few betting options to appease your Super Bowl wagering appetites this week so strap in, “let’s ride” (in the words of DPJ) and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Super Bowl Breakdowns:

LA Rams “@“ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 2/13 (6:30 PM EST)

Money Line: Rams (-185 odds)
Spread: Rams -4
Total: Under 51 (-130 odds)
Projected Score: Rams 27, Bengals 16
Coin Toss Outcome: Tails (never fails)
National Anthem Length O/U: Over 95 Seconds
Gatorade Bath Color: Clear/Water (½ unit), Blue (½ unit)
Breakdown: Before I get into this breakdown I wanted to take a moment to appreciate not only an impressive season across the board for us here at MJQ, but specifically my spectacular NFL betting season. After a 1-2 NFL Championship Weekend I’m sitting nine games over .500 at 33-24 (58%). There are no promises that this type of season will happen in ‘22-’23, and quite honestly no promises it will happen again, so I will tip my cap to myself and soak it all in. 

Transitioning over to the important stuff, my Rams are in the goddamn Super Bowl taking on Joe Burrow’s (and Harambe’s) Cincinnati Bengals. If you have been reading my stuff all year you know I like these Rams but I rarely pick them, mainly for jinx purposes, but I really have not been fully onboard for most of the season. They have looked shaky at times…Stafford, McVay and even the defense in big games have left a lot to be desired. However,,, this team has come together when it matters most and they had three incredibly impressive wins to get them to the Super Bowl. Conversely, I have enjoyed the Bengals this year but I am not at all impressed with their playoff resume. The Raiders were a fake playoff team with a negative point differential, the Titans were the worst #1 seed I could ever remember, and the Chiefs just absolutely crapped the bed and choked in the AFC Championship game. Dare I say…the Bengals don’t really deserve to be here. 

This part is not a hate take at all but I really think this Rams defensive line is going to swallow Joe Burrow alive. They now have two weeks to prepare for an incredibly undermatched Bengals offensive line and this defense has the type of speed and power to keep Burrow in the pocket and make his life hell. That is why I love both the under, Rams spread and Rams ML. I sense a lot of FGs coming from the Bengals…they’re drives constantly stall out in the red zone or in the opponents territory due to poor blocking. I expect a relatively close first half with the Rams pulling away in the second half. Go Rams.
Prop Breakdown:
Coin Toss: Some would say this is a 50/50 bet, but from what I’ve seen…tails absolutely never fails. Any time a head is flipped that is just a lucky flip that theoretically should have been tails. It’s science. Tails tails tails. 

National Anthem Length: This is easily one of my favorite bets of the Super Bowl every year. Honestly, it might be my favorite of the whole year in general. It is absolutely exillerating being at a Super Bowl party and degenerately cheering for the singer to hold every note for as long as possible. The game hasn’t even started and I’m already yelling at the TV like a lunatic. Mickey Guyton is behind the mic for this one…I don’t know any of her music or anything about her but that name sounds like an over to me. 

Gatorade Color: Another one of my favorites, the Gatorade bath. This becomes even more crucial to a gambler if the game is out of reach at the end and there is seemingly nothing fun left football-wise to watch. It’s also the icing on the cake before we get to hear who wins MVP (if it’s not a easy pick). I like clear/water as I could see McVay preferring to get doused in something non-sticky. He seems like a big water guy. Just a hunch. And blue at +600 when it’s a primary color of the Rams feels like free money. Also, I fucking love blue Gatorade.

Money Line: Rams (-185 odds)
Spread: Bengals +4.5
Total: Under 51 (-130 odds)
Projected Score: Rams 24, Bengals 23
Coin Toss Outcome: Heads
National Anthem Length O/U: Over 95 Seconds
Gatorade Bath Color: Blue (⅓ unit), Orange (⅓ unit), Yellow/Green/Lime (⅓ unit)
Game Breakdown: This game’s pretty simple… Can Stafford get the job done in the postseason on a great team (both on offense and defense), in his home stadium against a young superstar touched by the football gods (Joe Brrrrr)? While I think the ultimate answer will be “yes”, it should be an electric struggle all the way to the end. The Bengals are on an absolute tear right now and Joe Burrow has emerged as an absolute force in only his second year in the league. The Bengals are 13-7 against the spread this year overall and 8-2 against the spread when playing away (they’re technically the “home team” in the Super Bowl but… let’s be real… the game’s at SoFi Stadium). The Rams, in contrast, are 10-10 against the spread overall and 5-5 when playing at home. The tale of the tape this year for the Bengals has been pretty straightforward. They tend to start slow, then ramp up the intensity towards the back end of the game while exhibiting late game heroics and touting an overall point differential of less than 5 points (overall point differential vs good teams of ~2 points). The Rams have been more hit or miss… They tend to either impress or disappoint, specifically struggling against teams with good defenses (the Bengals defense would be included in the “good” category). So I think this game is more Stafford’s to lose vs Burrow’s to win. While I think Brrrrrrrrow is clearly great and should win a Super Bowl before his career concludes, the Rams have a much more balanced (and veteran) team that’s playing in their home stadium with quite a bit to prove. Stafford is trying to cement his path to Canton, OBJ is trying to prove not only his abilities as a wide receiver but also his capability to contribute to a team championship (sorry again Browns fans), Sean McVay is trying to get over the championship hump and the Rams organization in general is trying to validate their “win now” approach over the past few years. The Bengals have taken games to overtime 4 times this season so they’re the definition of a “down but not out” kind of squad… If the Bengals get down early, don’t be afraid to jump on some live betting spread action in their favor (they love to come back). While I think there’s always the chance that we might be witnessing the emergence of the next great in Burrow (the guy has Tom Brady type luck but with more talent), I’m going to intentionally remove emotion from my projection here and take the Rams in a nail biter victory for the ages. Future bet prediction? Burrow surpasses 1.5 Super Bowls in his career. Super Bowl LVI prediction? The Rams pull it out but fail to cover.
Prop Breakdown: First I’ll cover our listed novelty props in this breakdown, then I’ll cover my favorite props for the game outright. 

Coin Toss: When people refer to a 50/50 type bet as a “coin flip” this is quite literally what they are referring to. DO NOT PUT BIG MONEY ON THIS PROP. Over time the coin toss bet should theoretically finish ~50% heads and ~50% tails. Super Bowl coin tosses have landed tails ~60% of the time (29 out of 55). While past results aren’t indicative of future results… I’m always going to lean towards the regression back to the mean when it comes to a purely 50/50 bet like a coin toss. That take is purely statistical so understand how speculative a coin toss bet is before you take the action.

National Anthem Length: I almost took this for my best bets but I’m holding off due to lack of data. While 95 seconds is the lowest O/U for a Super Bowl national anthem length in recent memory, Mickey Guyton’s last national anthem only lasted 91 seconds so there’s always a chance she rushes it. That said, it’s the national anthem at the Super Bowl… She’s literally at the Super Bowl but singing the national anthem AT the Super Bowl is HER Super Bowl. I’m banking on the fact that she’s going to hold that note as long as she possibly can on the biggest stage of her career so I think a 95 second O/U is pretty juicy if I’m being honest.

Gatorade Color: In a recent article by The Athletic, an anonymous Gatorade employee recently let the beans slip that Gatorade actually picks the colors of the Gatorade that players can pour on their coach after a Super Bowl victory and they only provide 3 options (3 coolers lined up with different color Gatorades) for that fateful player to choose from. Given that knowledge, I’m going to spread out my odds across the 3 most likely colors in recent history… Orange (+200), Blue (+300) and Yellow/Green/Lime (+450). By spreading my luck in this manner (assuming a $100 unit) there’s a great chance I’m either making my money back (orange) or profiting ~$33-50 (blue or yellow/green/lime). The option of “clear” also exists but who in their right mind would pick clear over two options of color when presented the choice??

Best Bet Props: Cam Akers is averaging ~50.33 rush yards/game over the last 3 games and he hasn’t topped 55 rush yards in a game all year. The Bengals rush defense isn’t terrible and Darrell Henderson is probably coming back which should eat into his carries. 

Kupp is averaging ~116.65 rec yards/game and ~128.6 rec yards/game in the postseason. He averages ~13.72 yards/reception and should have ~8-9 receptions against the Bengals (~110-123 yards) who allow ~245 rec yards/game.

The winner of the coin toss has lost the Super Bowl for the last 7 years… That’s a statistically absurd trend and I’ll be betting against it until it reverses.

McPherson is averaging 2 FG/game, 4 FG/game in the postseason. Gay is averaging ~1.95 FG/game, ~2.33 FG/game in the postseason. Combined they average ~3.95 FG/game and ~6.33 FG/game in the postseason.

Gay has 2+ FGs in 15/20 games (75%) and 3/3 postseason games (100%).

The Bengals have 1+ FG/1+ TD in 19/20 games this season (95%), 3/3 games in the postseason (100%). The Rams also have 1+ FG/1+ TD in 19/20 games this season (95%), 3/3 games in the postseason (100%). Easy money.

Stafford is averaging ~2.35 Pass TDs/game, 2 Pass TDs/game in the postseason. The Bengals are allowing ~1.6 Pass TDs/game, 1.7 Pass TDs/game in the postseason. I’m projecting ~1.9125 Pass TDs for Stafford in the Super Bowl.

The Rams have scored the 1st TD of the game in 12/20 games this year (60%), 7 out of their last 9 games (~78%) and 4 out of their last 4 games (100%). The Bengals start slow and have only scored the 1st TD in 35% of their games, none recently.

Both Burrow and Stafford should easily cover those lowered pass yard props regardless of the outcome of the game. Stafford averages ~289.55 pass yards/game, 301.667 pass yards/game in the postseason and the Bengals allow ~247.7 pass yards/game. Burrow averages ~287 pass yards/game, 280.667 pass yards/game in the postseason and the Rams allow ~238.6 pass yards/game.

Mixon is averaging ~73.42 rush yards/game, ~63.33 rush yards/game in the postseason and the Rams allow ~95.8 rush yards/game. Kupp is averaging ~116.65 rec yards/game, ~128.6 rec yards/game in the postseason and the Bengals allow ~245 rec yards/game. Taking into account both teams points for average overall, points for average vs good defenses and points for average vs good defenses at home/away… both should score ~23-24 points. It’s highly unlikely they surpass the 62 total points mark especially considering these teams are a combined 14-6 hitting the under on the year when the Rams are playing at home (I know they’re technically the away team in the Super Bowl but… come on… the games at SoFi Stadium…) and Bengals are playing away.

Q’s Best Bets (30-33 Overall)

7 Point Teaser: Bengals +11.5, Total Points Under 57 (-130 odds)

Spread: Bengals +4.5

Total: Total Points Under 51 (-130 odds)

Money Line: Rams (-185 odds)

Prop: Cam Akers Total Rush Yards Under 65.5 (-115 odds)

Prop: Cooper Kupp Total Receiving Yards Over 104.5 (-115 odds)

Prop: Coin Toss Winner to also Win Super Bowl: Yes (-105 odds)

Prop: Total Combined Field Goals Over 2.5 (-210 odds)

Prop: Rams Total Field Goals Over 1.5 (-165 odds)

Prop: Both Teams to Score 1+ TD and 1+ Field Goal (-210 odds)

Prop: Matthew Stafford Passing TDs Over 1.5 (-210 odds)

Prop: Rams Score 1st TD of Super Bowl (-150 odds)

Prop Parlay: Joe Burrow Passing Yards Over 200, Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Over 225 (-260 odds)

Prop Parlay: Joe Mixon 25+ Rushing Yards, Cooper Kupp 60+ Receiving Yards, Total Points Under 62.5 (-225 odds)

DPJ’s Best Bets (33-24 Overall)

Total: Total Points Under 51 (-130 odds)

Parlay: Rams Money Line, Total Points Under 54.5 (EVEN odds)

DPJ Props

Prop: Rams Convert a First Down: Yes (-150 odds)

Prop: QB Sacked First: Joe Burrow (-180 odds)

Prop: Cooper Kupp to Have More Receiving Yards Than Ja’Marr Chase (-170 odds)

Other Action (66-63-4 Overall)

Prop: Will Part of Eminem’s Halftime Show be Censored: Yes (-180 odds)

Prop: Matthew Stafford 2nd Quarter TD Pass: Yes (+100 odds)

Risky Business (24-46 Overall)

Prop: Opening Kickoff Touchback: No (+135 odds)

Prop: 1st Bengals Offensive Play: Pass (+105 odds)

Prop: Aaron Donald Super Bowl MVP (+1500 odds)

Prop: Will Snoop Smoke on Stage: Yes (+300 odds)

Prop: First Song Performed: California Love (+200 odds)

Prop: Longest Reception: Cooper Kupp (+260 odds)

Prop Parlay: Cooper Kupp Anytime TD Scorer, Joe Burrow 10.5+ Rushing Yards, Aaron Donald to Record a Sack, MVP Position – QB, Missed Field Goal – No (+950 odds)

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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