Sheeeeeesh. DPJ and I went 4-0 for our individual best bets last week and we don’t plan on stopping there. The slate of games only gets better from here so do your research, enjoy your holiday and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (15-17 Overall)
North Texas vs Miami (OH)/Kent State vs Wyoming/UTSA vs San Diego State
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: N Texas +14, Kent State/Wyoming Totals Points Over 47.5, UTSA +14.5 (-130 odds)
This feels like an underdog slate to me this week so I’m investing in the points.
North Texas is basically playing a home game against Miami (OH) in the Frisco Football Classic this week. I think this should be a shootout (see my over bet breakdown below) but I think these two teams are evenly matched enough to keep the final score within two TDs. Factor in the concept of home field advantage for the Mean Green and a 5 game winning streak since 10/30 (capped off by an upset victory over UTSA) and you get a great chance for a spirited showing from North Texas… if not outright upset.
Kent State and Wyoming both have solid rush offenses (Kent State actually has a pretty solid passing game as well) and horrendous defenses. The two teams have combined to average over 55 points per game and allow over 57 points per game to their opposition on the season. Both teams are coming off brutal losses and 6 loss seasons coming into this matchup. Expect both offenses to step up the tempo and for both defenses to become overwhelmed early and often.
This UTSA/San Diego State matchup was much more straightforward before Sincere McCormick’s recent declaration for the NFL draft. If McCormick was playing in this game, I’d contemplate taking the UTSA spread straight up. Unfortunately, that’s not the case so I’m throwing them in this teaser to be safe due to the uncertainty of replacing him. UTSA is coming off a conference championship, possibly their best season ever and they’re trying to capture their first bowl victory in school history. San Diego State started out hot this season but cooled off and haven’t beaten a team by 14+ points since 10/9. The Aztecs got exposed in their conference championship against Utah State (although they were missing quite a few players due to COVID) and they’ve struggled to find their true identity on offense all season. I think this has a high possibility of becoming an ugly game considering the unknowns on UTSA’s offense now (post McCormick departure), the rejuvenation of San Diego State’s defense and an inconsistent Aztecs offense that hasn’t blown anyone out in 3 months. Expect this one to be close, take the points and the team attempting to write their names in their school’s history books (UTSA).
North Texas vs Miami (OH) – Thursday, 12/23 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 54
I absolutely love this over. Both teams are averaging close to 40 points per game as of late, North Texas is basically playing a home game (only ~30 minutes away from their campus) and neither team has a great defense. This one has the makings of a shootout which can mean only one thing… points. Expect these two sides to go back and forth all game so sit back, relax and enjoy the action knowing that you don’t have to care who actually wins to cover.
DPJ’s Best Bets (15-13-1 Overall)
North Texas vs Miami (OH) – Thursday, 12/23 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: North Texas +4.5
DPJ breakdown coming soon.
UTSA vs San Diego State/UCF vs Florida
Pick: 6 Point Teaser: UTSA +9, Florida -0.5 (-110 odds)
DPJ breakdown coming soon.
Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (11-12 Overall)
Missouri vs Army – Wednesday, 12/22 (8:00 PM EST)
Pick: Army -3
Yes, I’m taking the Black Knights again only a week after they let us down against Navy. Like I said last week, both teams seem to come into that rivalry 0-0 every year and 2021 was no exception. I still think Army was the better team and they’re offense simply stalled out as the game progressed (definitely some questionable officiating calls as well), but hey we’re here to talk about the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl… not live in the past.
This is arguably the most prolific offense that Army has had in a decade. Christian Anderson is an absolute stud and he’s currently rocking a QB rating of over 165 against non conference competition this season… yeah, I’d say that’s pretty solid. Army’s run game hit new heights this season, their defense took multiple steps forward and they’re definitely going to come out heated after a devastating loss to an inferior Navy team two weeks ago. Missouri on the other hand has had a very underwhelming season and barely fumbled their way into bowl eligibility with only 6 wins. They were able to beat an uninspired Florida squad in OT that had just lost their head coach, but they played the role of punching bag against every other decent team they faced throughout the season. Rolling with the team that wants it most in this one, taking Army with confidence. – Q
CFB Bowl Season Pick’em – Results after Bowl Week #1 (5-4 Overall)
|Friday, 12/17 (12:00 PM EST)||Bahamas Bowl||MTSU vs Toledo|
|Friday, 12/17 (6:00 PM EST)||Tailgreeter Cure Bowl||N Illinois vs Coastal Carolina||Coastal Carolina|
|Saturday, 12/18 (11:00 AM EST)||RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl||W Kentucky vs App State|
|Saturday, 12/18 (2:15 PM EST)||PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl||UTEP vs Fresno State||Fresno State|
|Saturday, 12/18 (3:30 PM EST)||Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl||UAB vs BYU|
|Saturday, 12/18 (5:45 PM EST)||LendingTree Bowl||E Michigan vs Liberty||Liberty|
|Saturday, 12/18 (7:30 PM EST)||Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl||Utah State vs Oregon State|
|Saturday, 12/18 (9:15 PM EST)||R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl||Louisiana vs Marshall||Louisiana|
|Monday, 12/20 (2:30 PM EST)||Myrtle Beach Bowl||Old Dominion vs Tulsa||Tulsa|
|Tuesday, 12/21 (3:30 PM EST)||Famous Idaho Potato Bowl||Kent State vs Wyoming||Kent State|
|Tuesday, 12/21 (7:30 PM EST)||Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl||UTSA vs San Diego State||UTSA|
|Wednesday, 12/22 (8:00 PM EST)||Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl||Missouri vs Army||Army|
|Thursday, 12/23 (3:30 PM EST)||Frisco Football Classic||N Texas vs Miami (OH)||N Texas|
|Thursday, 12/23 (7:00 PM EST)||Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl||UCF vs Florida||Florida|
|Friday, 12/24 (8:00 PM EST)||EasyPost Hawaii Bowl||Memphis vs Hawaii||Memphis|
|Saturday, 12/25 (2:30 PM EST)||TaxAct Camellia Bowl||Georgia State vs Ball State||Georgia State|
|Monday, 12/27 (11:00 AM EST)||Quick Lane Bowl||W Michigan vs Nevada||W Michigan|
|Monday, 12/27 (2:30 PM EST)||Military Bowl||Boston College vs E Carolina||ECU|
|Tuesday, 12/28 (12:00 PM EST)||TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl||Houston vs Auburn||Auburn|
|Tuesday, 12/28 (3:15 PM EST)||SERVPRO First Responder Bowl||Air Force vs Louisville||Air Force|
|Tuesday, 12/28 (6:45 PM EST)||AutoZone Liberty Bowl||Mississippi State vs Texas Tech||Mississippi State|
|Tuesday, 12/28 (8:00 PM EST)||San Diego Country Credit Union Holiday Bowl||UCLA vs NC State||UCLA|
|Tuesday, 12/28 (10:15 PM EST)||Guaranteed Rate Bowl||W Virginia vs Minnesota||Minnesota|
|Wednesday, 12/29 (11:00 AM EST)||Wasabi Fenway Bowl||SMU vs Virginia||Virginia|
|Wednesday, 12/29 (2:15 PM EST)||New Era Pinstripe Bowl||Maryland vs Virginia Tech||Virginia Tech|
|Wednesday, 12/29 (5:45 PM EST)||Cheez-It Bowl||Clemson vs Iowa State||Clemson|
|Wednesday, 12/29 (9:15 PM EST)||Valero Alamo Bowl||Oregon vs Oklahoma||Oklahoma|
|Thursday, 12/30 (11:30 AM EST)||Duke’s Mayo Bowl||UNC vs S Carolina||UNC|
|Thursday, 12/30 (3:00 PM EST)||TransPerfect Music City Bowl||Tennessee vs Purdue||Tennessee|
|Thursday, 12/30 (7:00 PM EST)||Chick-fila Peach Bowl||Pittsburgh vs Michigan State||Michigan State|
|Thursday, 12/30 (10:30 PM EST)||SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl||Wisconsin vs Arizona State||Wisconsin|
|Friday, 12/31 (11:00 AM EST)||TaxSlayer Gator Bowl||Wake Forest vs Texas A&M||Texas A&M|
|Friday, 12/31 (12:00 PM EST)||Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl||Washington State vs Miami||Washington State|
|Friday, 12/31 (2:00 PM EST)||Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl||C Michigan vs Boise State||Boise State|
|Friday, 12/31 (3:30 PM EST)||Goodyear Cotton Bowl||Cincinnati vs Alabama||Alabama|
|Friday, 12/31 (7:30 PM EST)||Capital One Orange Bowl||Georgia vs Michigan||Georgia|
|Saturday, 1/1 (12:00 PM EST)||Outback Bowl||Penn State vs Arkansas||Penn State|
|Saturday, 1/1 (1:00 PM EST)||PlayStation Fiesta Bowl||Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame||Oklahoma State|
|Saturday, 1/1 (1:00 PM EST)||Vrbo Citrus Bowl||Iowa vs Kentucky||Kentucky|
|Saturday, 1/1 (5:00 PM EST)||Rose Bowl||Utah vs Ohio State||Ohio State|
|Saturday, 1/1 (8:45 PM EST)||Allstate Sugar Bowl||Baylor vs Ole Miss||Ole Miss|
|Tuesday, 1/4 (9:00 PM EST)||TaxAct Texas Bowl||LSU vs Kansas State||Kansas State|
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