NFL Week 15 Bets

Don’t look now but we’re absolutely rollin’ folks. If it wasn’t for Mike Glennon’s first career rushing TD in garbage time last week… DPJ and I would’ve gone undefeated with both our individual best bets as well as our best of the best for Week 14 (ended up 7-1). Our teasers are feeling “super” and we’re starting to lock in on individual player performances so don’t sleep on prop bets as the regular season comes to a conclusion. Keep riding the lightning with us and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (19-15 Overall; 6-1 since Week 13)
Kansas City Chiefs @ LA Chargers – Thursday, 12/16 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Travis Kelce Total Receiving Yards 60+ (-136 odds)

Kelce is due for a big performance. He’s surely a first ballot hall of famer and his lack of production as of late isn’t entirely his fault. At the end of the day, big players make big plays in big games and Kelce is about as big as they come. The Chargers have a solid team which should make for an explosive matchup against the Chiefs, but not because of the Chargers defense. Expect Kelce to feast on a defense that’s already been exposed numerous times this season in a divisional matchup with heavy playoff implications.

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, 12/19 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Diontae Johnson Total Receptions Over 6.5 (-135 odds)

Targets, targets, targets. Despite the Steelers volatile season thus far, Diontae Johnson definitely hasn’t been deprived of opportunity. Johnson currently ranks top 5 in the league in targets (131) and he’s actually staying healthy/catching the ball this season. The Titans have a terrible secondary and I fully expect the Steelers to attempt to expose that all day in what should be a close matchup against a wounded Tennessee squad that’s just simply trying to hang on until King Henry can return to his throne post injury. I think this game has the makings of a shootout, Big Ben has to have some juice left in the tank to at least shake things up and Diontae is by far his favorite target. DJ all day.

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 12/19 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Kyler Murray Total Rushing Yards over 30.5 (-115 odds)

It’s the week of the prop bet. I’ve been waiting for a Kyler Murray rush yards prop to be released all week and it’s finally here. It feels like anytime the major betting platforms delay the publishing of a specific prop bet… it’s usually because they’re hoping bettors overlook it. Not today folks! Kyler should absolutely feast on this porous Lions defense and he looks healthy enough now to do a lot of that damage with his feet. Kyler has combined for 120 rushing yards over his last two games and the Cardinals will be coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Rams last week. Let’s be real, Kyler is capable of covering this prop in one play. Don’t overthink it, take the reasonable bet tied to a MVP candidate vs the high spread for the team overall.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday, 12/19 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Taysom Hill Total Rushing Yards Over 44.5 (-115 odds)

Definitely “living by the sword, dying by the sword” this week as far as all the prop bets. This Taysom Hill prop is simple… The Bucs defense is a lot better than the Saints offense right now, they should be able to contain Alvin Kamara for the most part and Taysom isn’t a strong passer. All of those things correlate to designed runs for Taysom (his strong suit) and scrambles from collapsing pockets all night. Taysom has combined for 174 rushing yards over his last two games and, although he’s almost certain to throw some INTs, I don’t see that rushing trend stopping tonight. Betting on Taysom and the only thing he’s good at tonight vs any spreads or totals for the game.

DPJ’s Best Bets (21-16 Overall; 3-0 last week)
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, 12/19 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Titans Money Line (-110 odds)

I’m about 90% sure that Big Ben’s second half comeback @ Minnesota is the only reason this line is where it is. It simply makes no sense. The Steelers do shockingly still have a chance to win the AFC north but I am not buying it, this team stinks. And I know the Titans are not quite an underdog but I would imagine that Mike Vrabel is furious about this disrespect and he will have the boys out their firing from the minute this one kicks off. The Titans are still one of the best running teams in football even with Henry out, and the Steelers have the worst run defense in the NFL. We saw those holes that Dalvin was running through last week…I don’t expect this to look much different. Go Tit(an)s.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday, 12/19 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 46

Betting on a Taysom Hill over is like doing heroin. I have never actually done heroin but I imagine it feels very similar (it probably doesn’t). Nonetheless, Taysom is looking like a Mormon Lamar Jackson with a healthy Alvin Kamara by his side and I love the thought of him picking apart this soft Tampa secondary. I know how good Tampa’s run defense is but Sean Payton should be able to scheme up enough short throws to open up the deep balls to NoLa’s collection of no-name receivers. You don’t need to hear from me about how the Bucs are gonna score points. Their offense is a well oiled machine and puts up 30+ seemingly every week. I love the over in this and will be shocked if the game score is under 50.

Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (11-16 Overall)
Texans @ Jaguars/Panthers @ Bills
Pick: 10 Point Super Teaser: Texans +15, Texans/Jaguars Total Points Under 51.5, Bills -0.5 (-120 odds)

Heavy on the Texans, right? Correct. The Texans and the Jags are in a tank race for the first overall pick in the draft, hence the under pick, but I do believe Davis Mills is desperate to prove he’s not a complete fraud. He played pretty well last week, honestly looks a lot better than I was expecting and it should be a pretty close game regardless of the outcome. I like the Texans to at least cover 2 TDs and quite possibly even win the game convincingly after Urban’s less than subtle departure. This one feels like a box score to monitor vs actually watching unless you have ties to either team (true respect to the diehard Texans/Jags fans out there).

The Bills are a great team and they have to win this game to remain so. The Panthers have a great defense and I’m sure they’ll give the Bills offense trouble but not enough to make this one close. Expect a get right game from the Bills on Sunday (although keep in mind, all they have to do is win to cover this teaser). – Q

Cardinals @ Lions/Bengals @ Broncos/Saints @ Buccaneers 
Pick: 10 Point Super Teaser: Cardinals -2.5, Bengals +13, Bucs -0.5 (-120 odds)

I won’t dive too deep into the Bills since they’re part of my last teaser. That said, they’re true contenders, the Panthers just aren’t quite there yet offensively and the Bills are coming off of a gut wrenching loss to an elite team… expect some frustrations to be taken out on Carolina this weekend.

The Cardinals also lost a heartbreaker last week and Kyler has to feel offended by the latest MVP odds (he’s third by a hefty number). When Kyler has been healthy this season, there’s no one better under center. The recent Hopkins news doesn’t help the cause but let’s be real… the Kyler cause doesn’t need much help and the Lions are terrible/already got their lone win for the season preventing them from falling into NFL history infamy. That’s right, I’m calling two get right games between the Cardinals and Bills, shocker.

Tom Brady doesn’t tend to lose this late in the season in general, especially against a rag tag group like the 2021 Saints. The Bucs defense is good enough to make Taysom Hill’s life difficult and it’s hard to view them as the divisional rivals we’re accustomed to seeing this year with all the retirements/injuries. Expect TB12 to continue his race against time and for the Bucs to position themselves for postseason success in this matchup. – Q

Panthers @ Bills/Cardinals @ Lions/Vikings @ Bears
Pick: 3 Team Parlay: Bills Money Line, Cardinals Money Line, Vikings Money Line (EVEN odds)

This is my favorite type of moneyline parlay. For starters, all we need on Sunday is a simple win from the Bills and Cardinals, who are playing two of the worst teams in football. Once we have summited that mountain (more of an ant hill) we shift our focus to Monday night where we need the Vikings to clean up against a covid riddled Bears team. The Vikings spread is creeping up to 6 points…and I would absolutely HATE to take Minnesota to win any game by more than 3 points…but all we need is a win, doesn’t have to be pretty, just need a W. Betting on the good teams to beat the bad teams is a time tested gambling strategy and at this point in the season hitching your wagon to teams with playoff chances and fading the teams with high draft pick chances is as simple as it gets. If all goes as planned you (and I) will go to bed on Monday night with a unit or two in our pockets. Merry early Christmas. – DPJ

Patriots @ Colts/Falcons @ 49ers
Pick: 7 Point Teaser: Patriots +10, 49ers -1

The Patriots are getting points against a Carson Wentz led 7-6 Colts team in the year of our lord 2021? Sign me up, and even better, sign me up for a juicy +10 with a teaser. I love the Pats at +3 and love them even more tagged with the 49ers to simply win by >1 point. The Pats are on a 7 game win streak and this should be an interesting match up for them, and honestly a fun game to watch, but Bill Belichick looks to be in terminator mode and I have decided to ride Mr. Terminator until he loses. I think New England grinds this game down to a slow-moving-pound-the-rock-fest and no one wins those games more often than Billy boy. Yes I know how good Jonathan Taylor is and yes I know the Colts also like to run the ball a ton but things should look a lot more difficult against NE than they have against a bunch of bad teams. Don’t look now but the Colts have only beat two teams with winning records. Must be nice to play in the AFC south. The Niners is a simple pick that needs minimal explanation. The Falcons stink against any team that has a pulse so I feel supremely confident that SF will wipe the floor with them. – DPJ

Other Action (60-59-4 Overall)

Cardinals @ Lions: Cardinals -2.5

Patriots @ Colts: Total Points Under 47

Bengals @ Broncos: Bengals +3.5

Risky Business (20-37 Overall)

Patriots @ Colts: Patriots Money Line (+125 odds)

Vikings @ Bears: Vikings -6.5 (+110 odds)

3 Team Parlay (+170 odds): Texans/Jags Total Points Under 43, Buccaneers Money Line, Packers Money Line

Chiefs @ Chargers: Travis Kelce 1+ TD Reception (+115 odds)

2 Prop Parlay (+180 odds): Kyler Murray TD (non passing), Cardinals Money Line

Disclaimer: is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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