How about a little 4-3 record across the board for me and Q last week? We will take that all day long. Sometimes you have to take a step back, as we did in week 9, to take two steps forward. The finish line is now within sight for the 2021 CFB regular season so let’s keep stacking units while we can.
Q’s Best Bets (9-13 Overall)
Notre Dame @ Virginia – Saturday, 11/13 (7:30 PM EST)
Pick: Notre Dame -5
I am truly baffled at how many times I’ve chosen to write about the Irish this year. That said, here we go again. It’s make or break time for Notre Dame with the season winding down and only a few more opportunities to sneak into the top 4. They’ll be playing a Cavaliers team that will either be missing their star QB in Brennan Armstrong or at the very least Armstrong will have to play through a rib injury from two weeks ago. Everyone likes to talk about Notre Dame’s all star RB in Kyren Williams, and for good reason considering he’s one of the best RBs in the country, but I feel like Jack Coan doesn’t get enough credit. Coan’s stats this season don’t jump off the page but he’s been a solid game manager, especially in big games. Notre Dame has built a reputation for sneaking into the playoffs over the years and this season should be no exception. I expect Notre Dame to keep the ball rolling in this one and keep their CFP hopes alive. Irish by a TD+.
Purdue @ Ohio State – Saturday 11/13 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: Purdue +21.5
Touché Purdue, touché. I’ve faded the Boilermakers twice now and they’ve made me eat my words both times. While I don’t think they’re good enough to win this game I think they’re at least good enough to keep it within 3 TDs. Purdue’s defense has been surprisingly good this year and the team overall has played its best against solid competition, knocking off #2 Iowa then #3 Michigan State last week. Ohio State’s offense has somewhat stalled a bit as of late, only averaging 29.5 points per game over the past two weeks. CJ Stroud is far from Justin Fields and he hasn’t played great under pressure all season. I think his elite group of WRs end up bailing him out in this one but I definitely don’t foresee a blowout. Still don’t view Purdue as an elite team but I’m riding with them in this one to at least keep it close.
DPJ’s Best Bets (9-9-1 Overall)
Michigan @ Penn State – Saturday, 11/13 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Michigan -1.5
Penn State had another embarrassing loss last week at Maryland, they’re out of the top 25 and could potentially end the season with 5 losses. They feel like they are on the verge of giving up and quite frankly they don’t have much to play for. Michigan is very much the opposite…if you’re a UM fan or player you can easily talk yourself into winning this game and then beating OSU in the last week of the season to put yourself in position to get in the CFP. The problem is, Michigan will absolutely lose that OSU game but until then they are prime to keep winning games. Go Big Blue (for now).
Georgia @ Tennessee – Saturday, 11/13 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: Tennessee +20
Picking against this Georgia team is just about the least sexy thing you can do right now, but hear me out. This Tennessee offense is EASILY the best offense Georgia has faced and they are rounding into form at the right time. Hendon Hooker looks like one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country and has been incredibly efficient at the helm for the Volunteers. What I like most about UT is the variety of options they have in both the run game and the pass game. Hooker has weapons all over and even though there is a likely chance Georgia puts the clamps on them they are set up well to have some success. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s defense has not been pretty but I don’t trust this Georgia offense much at all and I am patiently waiting to watch their offense struggle when their defense can’t win it for them. Let’s root for the underdogs together and see if the Vols can keep it close.
Best of the Best Bets – DPJ & Q approved (7-9 Overall)
Maryland @ Michigan State/Oklahoma @ Baylor
Pick: 6 point teaser: Michigan State -6.5, Baylor +11.5 (-110 odds)
Michigan State may have lost their chance at a CFP playoff berth getting upset by the Boilermakers in West Lafayette last week. There is no better game to get back on track than coming home to East Lansing to face a scrubby Maryland team. This Maryland team doesn’t really do anything well, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games and continue to get shit-pumped on the road. The Spartans should be fighting for their life and anything less than a TD+ victory should be a major disappointment. In the other leg of the teaser, Baylor and Oklahoma should be a matchup of strengths as Baylor brings their rock solid run game home to face a stout Oklahoma run defense. I find the stats on OK’s run defense to be a bit misleading as they haven’t played many teams that can run the ball against anyone. Baylor should control possession and keep this one close, this is absolutely an upset spot to spoil the Sooners perfect season as well. – DPJ
Cincinnati @ South Florida/TCU @ Oklahoma State
Pick: 7 point teaser: USF +30.5, Oklahoma State -5.5 (-130 odds)
I’ll keep this breakdown brief considering it covers two different games.
It’s hard not to feel like Cincinnati has been feeling the pressure lately given all the noise about how non Power 5 teams get shafted by the CFP committee every year. They probably should’ve lost to Tulsa last week and there’s a great chance that they’re looking ahead to their matchup against SMU in week 12. USF isn’t a great team but hey neither is Tulsa and they only beat USF by 1 point. Expecting a distracted Cincinnati team to disappoint and USF to keep this within 30 points.
Oklahoma State has been flying under the radar this year but they’ve been absolutely deadly against the spread this season (7-2). They’ve also only lost one game to a solid Iowa State team and have a slight chance of sneaking into the playoffs if they can pull off an upset against their in-state rival Sooners and bring home their first Big 12 title since 2011. I’m expecting the Cowboys to pound the ball most of the game and utilize their talented players on defense to keep the Horned Frogs in check. I like Oklahoma State by a TD+. – Q
Risky Business (4-13 Overall)
3 Team – 7 Point Teaser (+130 odds): Ole Miss +10, Michigan State -6, Coastal Carolina -3
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