We head across the pond this week to Royal Troon to wrap up the majors season. We’ve called 2 out of the 3 outright winners at majors so far this season and man does 3 out of 4 sound better than 2 out of 4… Enjoy our favorite picks for this week and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Futures

Outright Winner

Player	Odds	Units
Scottie Scheffler	+550	0.35
Collin Morikawa	+1400	0.25
Rory McIlroy	+850	0.25
Tommy Fleetwood	+2500	0.2
Jon Rahm	+2500	0.2
Ludvig Aberg	+2000	0.2
Sam Burns	+15000	0.05

It wouldn’t be an outright winner slip at a major without Scottie’s name on it. Call it chalk play… he’s simply too good to fade right now and have to think he’s due for another major outside of Augusta sooner rather than later. I’ve heard conflicting views as to whether or not his style of play will bode well at Royal Troon but for a guy who’s virtually course proof I’m not taking any chances.

Morikawa might be the most popular favorite outside of Scottie/Rory this week and for good reason. He’s one of the most accurate ball strikers in the world, he’s won a British Open before and he’s been due for a victory for months now. Common theme lately has been players winning multiple of the same majors vs the spreading the love (Scottie at Augusta, Bryson at the US Open, JT at the PGA Championship last year, Koepka at PGA Championships). Who’s to say we don’t see that trend continue this week and see Morikawa bring home his second Claret Jug?

Trust me, I wasn’t a huge fan of adding Rory to the outright winner slip again this week… What’s the definition of insanity? That said, we can’t ignore that he’s arguably the most talented golfer of all time who isn’t playing poor golf (well, outside of mentally). He’s one of the few players with actual experience at Royal Troon this week and given his ability off the tee he’s bound to be in contention over the weekend. Yes, he might still be reeling from that US Open finish. That said, if he uses that as fuel this week he could run away with this one quickly and finally break his majors slump.

Tommy Fleetwood might be my favorite outright winner pick of the week. He thrives at The Open and he’s obviously intimately familiar with links courses in general. He ranks towards the top of the field in Strokes Gained Off The Tee and he’s inside the top 10 in Driving Accuracy specifically. He should have no trouble navigating this course and avoiding the deep rough/bunkers that player will face this week. His game all around right now is honestly solid/consistent across the board. Expect the Englishman to get hot this week in pursuit of his first career major. Truly absurd he doesn’t have any wins on the PGA in general yet… definition of due.

Rahm is my favorite LIV pick of the week by far. He’s been threatening to bring home his first LIV victory for months now and you know he wants to prove to the field that he hasn’t lost a step since his controversial departure from the PGA this year. His power off the tee will be a huge plus but it might be his skill around the green this week that could push him over the top (ranking 4th in the field in Strokes Gained Around The Green). Both of those skills are very conducive to success at Royal Troon and add in his fire to remind the world of his greatness and you get a motivated major champion who’s currently being overlooked. Dangerous proposition for the rest of the field.

Aberg is becoming a staple on my outright winner slips this season and for good reason. Outside of Strokes Gained Around the Green he ranks within the top 20 of the field in virtually every metric across the board (several inside the top 10). His elite ball striking and ability off the tee should leave him firmly in contention throughout the week. I know it’s his first Open but still… the guy’s going to be winning majors for many years to come so why not start now?

Massive sleeper pick on Sam Burns but at +15000 I simply can’t resist. Another guy who’s pretty consistent across the board, he’s putting lights out right now and still in search of his first major championship victory. He should be able to hang with the group off the tee and it sounds like he looks great in his practice rounds so far this week. At +15000, no reason not to throw a dart at this number.

Top 20

Player	Odds	Units
Tommy Fleetwood	+110	0.5
Viktor Hovland	+135	0.5
Tony Finau	+165	0.5
Cameron Young	+230	0.5
Sam Burns	+360	0.25
Akshay Bhatia	+315	0.25

See above for breakdowns on Fleetwood/Burns.

I had to double take when I saw this price on Hovland simply to finish within the Top 20 this week… Hovland has played fantastic at British Opens in the past (never finishing worse than T13). I realize he isn’t playing his best golf right now but given his approach game and putting it’s not hard to think he goes 4 for 4 cracking the top 20 at British Opens this week. Main thing to watch for Hovland will be his ability around the greens… Only real chink in the armor for him this week but his numbers have been improving there ever so slightly over his last few starts. Another guy who is so due for a major victory that I’ll take any value I can for him to simply crack the top 20.

Finau is a trendy pick this week that I’m also firmly backing. He’s an accurate bomber off the tee, one of the best ball strikers in the world on approach right now and he’s a magician around the greens. If his putter gets hot, we might see Finau finally break through at a major. He’s nursing a slight neck issue so laying off him for outright winner but I love his value at +165 just to contend.

Cameron Young is getting so overlooked at The Open this week it’s insane. His ability off the tee and his penchant for competing at major championships should have his top 20 price no where near +230. The guy has finished T8 and 2nd in his last two Opens and he’s also coming off back to back top 10 finishes on tour heading into this week. His approach game and driving ability alone should put him into the conversation but leaving him off my outright winner slip and backing his top 20 market due to some of his short game issues lately.

Bhatia might be the hottest player on tour right now. He’s relatively knew to the majors game but he cracked the top 20 at the US Open last month, he’s already got a victory under his belt this season and he’s coming off two top 5 finishes in a row. His ability/accuracy off the tee, his approach game and his putting should all ensure Bhatia has a chance this weekend. Riding the hot hand on this one and at +315, no reason not to.

Tournament Matchups

Phil Mickelson (-115) (1 unit) vs Tiger Woods

Phil has seen a ton of success at Royal Troon specifically throughout his career, finishing 2nd and 3rd there. He’s still hanging on as far as LIV and it sounds like the fans have been chirping him all week so far. We saw a similar fan reaction at Augusta right after Phil joined LIV and we all know what happened there…. Phil could very well use the heckling to his advantage this week, Tiger looks wounded out there already and Phil knows how to succeed at this course. Blown away Phil isn’t a larger favorite over Tiger this week given Tiger’s health. Hate to fade Tiger, greatest golfer of all time, but given the public’s trend to give us juicy prices against him… have to bet without emotion on this one.

1st Round Bets

Collin Morikawa – 1st Round Top 10 (+430) (0.5 units)

Not only is Collin one of the overall favorites to succeed this week but he tends to get things rolling early. He’s currently 2nd on tour in First Round Scoring Average (67.88) and we saw him fire off an opening round 67 at The Open in 2021. Given how much we like him this week and his knack for kicking things off early, no reason not to fire on him here to simply crack the top 10 Thursday (firmly in attacking position for our outright winner bet to hit later in the week).

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