The majors train heads to Pinehurst this week for what should be another war of attrition. Scheffler enters the week as the overwhelming favorite, fresh off dodging a case/becoming a father. Everyone had that combo on their bingo card… Set your foundation right with our favorite future bets of the week and stay tuned for more picks as the action heats up throughout the week. Sit back and enjoy watching the greatest golfers in the world question their career decisions all weekend. Bet smarter, not harder.

Futures

Outright Winner

Player	Odds	Units
Scottie Scheffler	+400	0.5
Rory McIlroy	+1200	0.25
Collin Morikawa	+1600	0.25
Bryson DeChambeau	+2000	0.2
Ludvig Aberg	+2200	0.2
Justin Thomas	+4000	0.1

At this point if you’re not including Scottie on your outright winner slip, or at the very least betting on outright markets that exclude him, then you’re simply donating money to the cause. Guy’s playing the best golf since Tiger’s hay day right now and he just regained his freedom… Field might be playing for second this week.

While I’m always timid to have Rory on the outright winner slip in a major at this point, his ability off the tee simply can’t be ignored at Pinehurst. Similar logic to Bryson, their length with the driver is going to make things quite a bit easier for them compared to the rest of the field this week. If Bryson can keep it together around the greens and Rory can honestly just stay out of his own way then either one of them could lift the trophy Sunday. Also hard to ignore Bryson’s momentum as of late. The guy is on a mission to remind everyone that Brooks isn’t the only LIV player to fear in major tournaments.

Speaking of heaters, Morikawa has found his form as of late and Pinehurst suits his game quite nicely. He’s not the longest hitter off the tee but still manages to rank towards the top of the field in Strokes Gained Off The Tee, not to mention his elite ball striking and magic around the greens as of late. Even his putter has caught fire recently so we could see the two time champ add the third leg to his Grand Slam belt this week if he stays consistent.

Feel like we’re catching Aberg at decent value here this week coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship last month. He’s another wildly consistent ball striker with a big advantage off the tee who has already proven that he can contend in major championships (we’re so quick to forget the Masters in April). For context, that PGA Championship outing is his only missed cut of 2024 so far… Virtually every other start has resulted in a top 20 or better including one victory already this season. Guy’s young and due.

Hated adding Justin Thomas on this outright winner slip to be completely honest but if he can putt even remotely decent this week then he’ll almost certainly find himself towards the top of the leaderboard come the weekend. Top 5 in the field in both Strokes Gained Approach and Strokes Gained Around the Green, all while maintaining a well above average distance off the tee. In terms of positive regression it’s almost dangerous not to account for the possibility of his putting improving at least slightly this week. If that does end up being the case, +4000 odds is a juicy price for a guy that tops the charts virtually everywhere else. Two time major champ, can’t forget.

Top 20

Player	Odds	Units
Brooks Koepka	+110	0.5
Hideki Matsuyama	+150	0.5
Sam Burns	+190	0.25
Min Woo Lee	+240	0.25
Byeong Hun An	+250	0.25

Brooks never really contends at the Masters and the PGA Championship so now we can snag him at positive odds just to finish top 20 at the US Open? Am I being punked right now? Set it and forget it, Koepka is built for this tournament and I’m sure he doesn’t love Bryson getting all this shine lately. The King of LIV regains his crown of dominance this week.

Hideki thrives in brutal environments like Pinehurst. One of the best ball strikers in the world and literally #1 in Strokes Gained Around The Green in the field this week. While he isn’t a long hitter off the tee, his consistency on approach and his magic at cleaning up around the greens (a skill which will be invaluable this week) should definitely keep him within striking distance once the field truly starts to struggle down the stretch. Expecting a solid bounce back out of Hideki after surprisingly poor showings in his first two major starts of the season.

Taking a chance on Burns, Min Woo Lee and Byeong Hun An but for different reasons. Burns is a consistent player really across the board and it’s been surprising how poor he’s played in majors throughout his career thus far. I’m putting a premium on consistency this week in what should be a true battle of wills. Expect some dad strength out of the new father this week, who named his son Bear. You don’t follow up naming your first son Bear by not finishing top 20 in a major…

Min Woo Lee and Byeong Hun An both have decent advantages off the tee this week and both have edges either on approach or around the greens compared to the field (Min Woo Lee can clean up around the greens with the best of them and Hun An’s ball striking is solid enough to likely keep him out of as much danger). Both of these top 20 bets are definitely considered “fliers” but I’ll take those odds all day on two potentially massive breakout candidates this week. I think there’s enough holes in both of their games to deter me from taking either outright but both could easily make things interesting as the week progresses if they start hot.

To Miss The Cut

Player	Odds	Units
Tom Hoge	+125	0.5

Our model absolutely hates Tom Hoge this week. His significant lack of distance off the tee coupled with his nonexistent short game if he misses a green makes him a perfect candidate for a missed cut prop at Pinehurst. Listen to these stats and let me know if they instill confidence… 245th in the field in Driving Distance, 194th in the field in Strokes Gained Around The Green and 104th in the field in Strokes Gained Putting. Yes, he’s a solid ball striker. No, he won’t hit every green ESPECIALLY considering the long irons he’ll consistently have to hit all week due to the fact this his big dog does not in fact eat. Sorry Tom, easily our favorite fade of the week.

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